US plans sanctions on Russia's trade partners: The full picture for India, explained in 3 points

Indian Express

17-07-2025

Union Petroleum and Natural Gas minister Hardeep Singh Puri Thursday (July 17) dismissed concerns about possible US sanctions impacting India's oil trade with Russia.
'India has diversified the sources of supply and we have gone, I think, from] about 27 countries that we used to buy [oil] from to about 40 countries now… If something happens, we'll deal with it,' Puri said at an event in New Delhi.'
On the same day, Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal spoke about 'double standards'. 'Let me reiterate that securing the energy needs of our people is understandably an overriding priority for us. In this endeavour, we are guided by what is available in the markets and also by prevailing global circumstances. We would particularly caution against any double standards on the matter.'
The comments come in response to NATO chief Mark Rutte recently saying that countries buying oil from Russia could face secondary sanctions from the US as it seeks to bring Moscow to the negotiating table to end the Ukraine war.
What exactly is this latest sanctions threat, and how far can it impact India? We explain, in 3 points.
US President Donald Trump, who had for long been soft on Russia's Vladimir Putin and berated Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is showing signs of changing course. 'My conversations with him are very pleasant, and then the missiles go off at night,' Trump said about Putin recently.
Thus, the US has now authorised a plan of arming Ukraine, which involves European countries buying weapons from the US and giving them to their beleaguered neighbour.
On the other hand, Russia has been given a deadline of 50 days to end the war, failing which it will be subjected to increased economic pressure, including sanctions on its trading partners. 'Tariffs at about 100% — you'd call them secondary tariffs,' Trump said earlier this week. His administration later clarified he meant sanctions, not tariffs.
Then on Wednesday (July 16), NATO chief Rutte said about the proposed sanctions, 'My encouragement to these three countries, particularly is, if you live now in Beijing, or in Delhi, or you are the president of Brazil, you might want to take a look into this, because this might hit you very hard… So please make the phone call to Vladimir Putin and tell him that he has to get serious about peace talks, because otherwise this will slam back on Brazil, on India and on China in a massive way.'
Apart from what Trump has threatened, the US Congress is working on a Bill to put 500% tariffs on buyers of Russian energy.
The West's sanctions on Russia so far have not damaged its economy severely because it continues to trade with the rest of the world, majorly with India and China, along with Brazil, Turkey, and others.
Should India worry?
India and Russia do have a high volume of bilateral trade. According to the Indian embassy in Russia, 'Bilateral trade between India and Russia reached a record high of USD 68.7 billion in FY 2024-25, nearly 5.8 times higher than the pre-pandemic trade of USD 10.1 billion.'
While major Indian exports to Russia include agri-products (fish, shrimp, rice, tobacco, tea, coffee, grapes), chemical products, pharmaceuticals, and iron and steel, the major imports are oil and petroleum product, fertilisers, bituminous substances, mineral fuels, mineral waxes, etc.
India started buying oil in bulk from Russia after the West put sanctions on Moscow in 2022 and it lowered the prices for willing buyers. In May this year, India imported crude worth $4.42 billion, petroleum products worth $441 million, and coal, coke and briquittes worth $387 million, as per The Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), a data visualisation platform.
However, as Puri said, India can turn to other sellers if the US hits it with damaging sanctions for buying oil from Russia.
Also, many are debating if Trump will actually impose the sanctions he is threatening. India and the US are in talks for a trade deal, which these measures will derail.
Additionally, Russia's main trade partner is China. It is unclear if the US has the appetite for another trade war with Beijing, after the mutually bruising round played out in the past few months.
Any sanctions on buying oil will shake up the global energy market and bring some pain on the US and its allies too.
What is the reaction to the new Trump proposals in the West?
While many believe that Trump is finally batting for the right team, after targetting Zelensky for months and refusing to commit to more aid, they worry that the 50-day deadline will allow Russia to capture more territory in Ukraine and strengthen its negotiating position considerably.
There are also concerns that the proposals are scant on details and definite timelines.
On the other hand, the hardline MAGA (Make America Great Again) faction, so far Trump's loyalists, are upset that the President is moving away from his campaign promise of not getting involved in other people's war.
Yashee is an Assistant Editor with the indianexpress.com, where she is a member of the Explained team. She is a journalist with over 10 years of experience, starting her career with the Mumbai edition of Hindustan Times. She has also worked with India Today, where she wrote opinion and analysis pieces for DailyO. Her articles break down complex issues for readers with context and insight.
Yashee has a Bachelor's Degree in English Literature from Presidency College, Kolkata, and a postgraduate diploma in journalism from Asian College of Journalism, Chennai, one of the premier media institutes in the countr
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