UK shares trade lower with eyes on GDP data, widening trade war
The internationally oriented FTSE 100 (.FTSE), opens new tab fell 0.5% by 0925 GMT but was on track for a third week of gains. The midcap index (.FTMC), opens new tab dropped 0.3% and was also set for weekly gains.
Britain's economy shrank for a second consecutive month in May, as declines in industrial output and construction outweighed growth in services, adding to domestic challenges for Finance Minister Rachel Reeves.
"It will now take something quite special for the UK to avoid an outright contraction in GDP in Q2, which doesn't appear at all likely quite frankly given the perfect storm of downside risks," said Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at global financial services firm Ebury.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump ramped up his trade war by announcing 35% tariffs on Canada on Thursday, while adding that blanket tariffs of 15% or 20% would be implemented on most other trading partners.
Sectoral gains on Friday were led by precious metal miners (.FTNMX551030), opens new tab with safe-haven gold rising on the expanding trade war.
Fresnillo (FRES.L), opens new tab added 2% while Hochschild (HOCM.L), opens new tab and Endeavour rose 1.6% and 1%, respectively.
Energy giant BP (BP.L), opens new tab shares rose 2.3% to top of the blue-chip after the company forecasted a higher upstream output production for second-quarter driving gains for oil and gas stocks (.FTNMX601010), opens new tab.
Losses on the day were led by personal good stocks (.FTNMX402040), opens new tab with luxury brand Burberry (BRBY.L), opens new tab dropping 2.2%. Dr. Martens (DOCS.L), opens new tab fell 1.5%.
Traders are currently pricing in a 78.6% chance of a rate cut during August's Bank of England meeting, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Among individual stocks, restaurant chain operator SSP Group (SSPG.L), opens new tab was the top loser on the midcap, falling 6.6% after UBS downgraded it to "sell".
($1 = 0.7384 pounds)
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Times
19 minutes ago
- Times
Can Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves escape the economic doom loop?
Rachel Reeves has a new joke. When she greets Labour MPs at Downing Street receptions, the chancellor flashes a smile and says: 'You're only invited because you've not signed one of those nasty open letters.' She's referring to the damaging habit in recent months of restive backbenchers criticising the government's policies in long, petition-like missives, then dispatching them to the newspapers. Since those very rebel MPs stymied her attempts to get through the government's welfare reforms, Reeves has been mired in grim news about the state of the country's finances and a damaging, loud drumbeat about the urgent need for big tax rises. The U-turn they forced on her over disability payments alone has left her with perhaps £3 billion more spending to cover. 'It's been hugely frustrating, and Rachel is furious at them,' says a Reeves ally on the backbenches. 'Frankly … the problems we've got ourselves in are their f***ing fault. They've added to her lack of headroom by listening to pressure groups and giving her more problems to solve.' The National Institute for Economic and Social Research shockingly declared last week that anaemic economic growth has left Britain £50 billion in the red — far worse than the £20 billion previously thought. Hemmed in by her petition-signing backbenchers, Reeves has found herself unable to stem the outpouring of negative sentiment about the tax sledgehammer coming in her autumn budget. With MPs away from parliament, the news vacuum from Westminster has been filled by daily speculation about new tax rises. Last week alone saw blanket coverage of Angela Rayner's idea of higher council taxes and Gordon Brown's call for increased taxes on online casinos to cover the cost of scrapping the two-child cap on benefits. Nobody knows where the tax hikes are going to fall, or who they're going to hit the worst, but everyone is aware they're there, in the distance, coming our way. Britain is in a fiscal sniper's alley. Dangerously for the economy, with the budget not likely until November, the alley is a long one. Adam Smith, chief of staff to Jeremy Hunt during his time as chancellor, is a veteran of two budgets and two autumn statements. He says all this speculation so early in the tax announcement cycle is seriously troubling. 'There is a real danger to confidence of constant speculation about what is and what isn't going to be in. The government is in a jam. They want to rule out some of the wilder speculation, but if they get into that game, everyone assumes if they don't rule something out, they're going to do it,' he says. The result is drift and uncertainty. It's a drift that could end up with the same kind of economic 'doom loop' the government plunged the economy into in the months after last July's election. Then, ministers constantly talked down the economy with claims of a £22 billion 'black hole' left by the Conservatives — scaring the country rigid about a potential budget bloodbath. The result was a crimp on economic growth that did not need to happen, as consumers and businesses put a lid on their spending plans. Worse still, Reeves kept the country waiting nearly four months for the budget to bring us some clarity. It's only natural that the parallels should be drawn between then and now, but this time, Labour is not controlling the narrative. Reeves cannot talk up the economy too much because it is so fragile she may end up eating her words by the autumn. Nor can she rule out any tax rises, because she might have to rule them back in. Amid all this uncertainty, consumer confidence, measured by the GfK market research group, is at its worst state since December. Neil Bellamy, GfK's consumer insights director, cites people's fear of 'stormy conditions ahead' for their taxes. Business leaders talk darkly of the public's willingness to spend 'falling off a cliff'. Those high street barometers of the country's spending power — Domino's Pizza and Greggs — have both rattled investors with warnings of a consumer slowdown. For employers, the lack of clarity around the tax situation feels deadly, from family-run restaurants to major shop chains. Most are still struggling to absorb the shock to their finances of the employers' national insurance hike, which came into effect in April. Labour's workers' rights reforms only make them more jittery. Andrew Murphy, chief executive of The Entertainer, Britain's biggest independent toyshop chain, says the employers' national insurance increase alone will cost his business £3.2 million this year — nearly 40 per cent of his profits. 'We've had to cut 63 roles in our head office in Amersham,' he says. 'And it's the same across every business I speak to. All they're investing in is technology that can save labour, or offshoring jobs to cheaper countries abroad. It's as brutal as that.' He adds that planning future investment in the business — the kind of investment that drives economic growth — is all on hold. 'You just don't know if the government is going to jump out from behind a hedge and hit you with some surprise new tax like they did last time,' he says. 'There is just zero confidence among businesses that the government will come up with anything creative, confidence-inspiring or visionary to boost the economy … It will be just more tax.' Lower investment from businesses means less employment. The rise of employers' national insurance has particularly hit companies that rely on high numbers of workers on modest pay. Restaurants and hotels, which employ about 8 per cent of the UK workforce, look particularly vulnerable, even though it's not quite visible yet. The increase came just as they were going into the busy spring-summer season when the warm weather and sport boosted sales. The question is, what happens when the summer is over? Tim Martin, chief executive of Wetherspoons, says his business can weather the storm but 'there has got to be substantial vulnerability out there because of the scale of the cost rises'. What most frustrates businesses — and centrist Labour MPs — is that Reeves and Sir Keir Starmer appear unable to rein in welfare spending. Even some Starmer allies in parliament express concern at his apparent inability to herd his turbulent party. One says: 'We need to get backbenchers to understand they are part of the government. The way you get things done in a functional government is by quietly and privately talking to ministers and explaining the implications of what they are planning. Not by shouting from the outside.' He still remains more frustrated at his backbench colleagues than the leadership, though: 'Of course, some of that's on Keir, it's up to him to lead. But it can't all come from the same two people who are insanely busy at the centre.' This, some close to Starmer say, is part of the problem. With the rapidly developing situations in Ukraine and Gaza to contend with, plus protests over immigration (by far the biggest concern on constituents' doorsteps), the PM has lacked the 'bandwidth' to focus on the nitty-gritty politicking of bringing discipline to his party. But one former Labour adviser, who knows him well, warns that this is not a good enough excuse. 'He is a lovely guy, but where's the leadership? How did he think he could get the party to rally behind an attack on the poorest in society? The whips were warning them the party was going to blow up over the welfare reforms but they didn't listen.' Those in the Reeves camp say she is working to create a more 'Labour' narrative for the measures that will come in the autumn budget. 'She's not going to get into a Whac-A-Mole about what precise measures we are or aren't going to take, but she is talking about the principles that will be behind the budget,' says one. 'What the economic 'story' will be.' Expect, then, to hear plenty of noises about 'contribution' — meaning rewards for 'hard-working people who pay their way' (as opposed to rich non-doms and wealthy bankers with children at private school). We will also be hearing more about those old favourites, 'productivity and growth', rather than just tax and spend. Those close to Reeves cite as examples the new pension reforms, the go-ahead for an extra terminal at Heathrow and faster planning to get building work started. 'She is constantly pushing officials: 'Is there more we can do on growth?',' one adviser says. Unlike after the election, Reeves is not talking down the economy. She has been out on what her team calls a 'summer tour' since the recess, putting on hi-vis and hard hats, meeting businesses. Her message is that the economy is not broken, but it has been stuck for years, exacerbated by Covid and bad Conservative stewardship. She feels business confidence is fairly strong and that the UK is seen internationally as a safe place to invest. Last week's interest rate cut from the Bank of England was, she says, a testimony to the stability she has brought to the economy. That positivity will chime with Steven Fine, chief executive of the stockbroker Peel Hunt, who says he is fed up with businesses talking down the UK: 'I think we've got a massive domestic lack of self-esteem, and it's just not warranted,' he says. 'We need to take a step back and think how resilient our economy has been: [since 2020] we've had three prime ministers, five chancellors, a cost of living crisis, a U-turn on the welfare state reforms. But we've not had a recession, we've been remarkably resilient given all the s**t that's been thrown at the economy. The rest of Europe's far more unstable than we are, and we've got a government with a decent majority.' The shadow chancellor Mel Stride has been trying to make hay from the government's economic travails. He says: 'When people ask me what I'd do to get out of this mess, I say that's like passing someone the steering wheel after the car's been smashed into a wall at 100 mph by a reckless driver and being asked: 'What would you do now?' The answer is, I wouldn't have crashed the car in the first place. 'I would not have destroyed growth by taxing the living daylights out of business; I would not have spent and borrowed hundreds of billions extra to stoke inflation and kept interest rates higher for longer; I would not have given in to the pay demands of train drivers and junior doctors without productivity strings attached. And I would have done much, much more to bring the welfare budget firmly under control.' Bizarrely enough, though, it's as easy to hear such fervour from Starmer's own backbenchers as the official opposition. Take this nautical message one sent to me on Saturday night: 'We're adrift in choppy seas with a skipper and first mate that can't navigate, and even if they could, they don't know where they're heading. Some of those they've thrown overboard for disciplinary matters have now found their own life raft and are attempting to ram us hard to port. All the while the SS Farage looms on the horizon to our stern — constantly menacing.' It's not only Nigel Farage who's menacing. Asked if his metaphorical meanderings were off the record, the MP who sent it responded: 'For now, yes. The time is fast approaching when it won't be, though.' With friends like these …
Times
19 minutes ago
- Times
They said I was late to AI, but I've picked a winner in Microsoft
Which would you rather back with your money: artificial intelligence or natural stupidity? Do you stand with Demis Hassabis — a Nobel prizewinner and chief executive of the AI researcher Google DeepMind, who last week expressed cautious optimism that AI 'will be ten times bigger than the industrial revolution' — or the losers venting cheap cynicism online? I can't pretend to be neutral about this, having suffered my fair share of abuse after reporting how AI prompted me to invest a little more than 2 per cent of my life savings in the software giant Microsoft (stock market ticker: MSFT) at $233 and $241 in January 2023. Several pessimists said I was too late and predicted doom. Some of them might have felt justified, briefly, when the arrival of DeepSeek, China's AI champion, wiped nearly $1 trillion off American tech giants' stock market value last January. It's early days yet, but those Microsoft shares were trading at $525 on Wednesday and are now the ninth most valuable holding in my 50-stock forever fund, so I really mustn't grumble. Less happily for society as a whole, it remains unclear whether the commercialisation of AI will lead to the 'radical abundance' predicted by Hassabis or mass unemployment. Here and now, Alphabet (GOOGL) is extending its AI search facility to Britain this month, after launching in America and India. Unlike conventional Google, which has proved so successful that its brand has entered the language as a verb, Google AI can answer complex questions at length and in plain English, instead of providing a list of links. Never mind, for now, that this business is essentially disrupting itself, with some advertisers grumbling that fewer folk are linking through to them than they did before. Google had to go higher up the AI ladder to avoid being rendered obsolete by ChatGPT, one of the most successful app launches ever. There's no need to take my word for this, Google AI reports that its rival ChatGPT 'achieved a remarkable feat by reaching 100 million users in just two months after its November 2022 launch'. • Google has signalled the death of googling. What comes next? Unfortunately for investors, ChatGPT is owned by OpenAI, a company that is not listed on a stock exchange. Fortunately, news that Microsoft had invested $10 billion in its unlisted Californian technology competitor in January was enough to prompt this small DIY investor to take the plunge and buy a stake in the future via Microsoft. The company combines long-established streams of revenue — including the world's most popular desktop operating system, Microsoft Windows, plus PowerPoint and Word — with substantial exposure to capital growth in future, through its stake in OpenAI and ChatGPT. Microsoft's modest dividend yield of 0.63 per cent has increased an eye-stretching annual average of 17 per cent over the past five years, according to LSEG, formerly the London Stock Exchange Group. Dividends are not guaranteed and can be cut or cancelled without notice. However, if that rate of ascent could be sustained, it would double shareholders' income in less than four and a half years. So this investor, who hopes to fund an enjoyable retirement, sees it as a relatively safe each-way bet. By contrast, my biggest technology shareholding, Apple (AAPL), has largely failed so far to make the AI trend its friend. Worse still, most iPhones are made in China, and so this business is extremely exposed to the unpredictable trade war between America and China, causing Apple's share price to plunge 12.5 per cent since the start of this year. That plucked it off the top slot in my forever fund, pushing it down to third place by value. But, having originally invested in Apple at $23.75 in February 2016, as reported here at that time, allowing for a subsequent stock split, I remain sanguine about these shares, which were trading at about $212 on Wednesday. One reason is that I suspect Apple Vision Pro, an augmented reality (AR) headset, has been widely misunderstood. This company has long-established success in selling technology to people who aren't that keen on technology, so I think Apple may be first to achieve commercial success with AR — which enhances the real world by overlaying graphics and information — when the price comes down and the choice of apps goes up. This would be a good time to confess that my cerebral software dates from the 1950s. So I can't claim to understand the more technical aspects of these trends, which was why I began my exposure to this sector with an investment trust more than a decade ago. Polar Capital Technology (PCT) shares were trading at 43p each, allowing for subsequent stock split, when I transferred them from a paper-based broker in September 2013. They were trading at £3.97 on Wednesday and may have further to go. Better still for bargain-hunters, shares in the £5.1 billion fund continue to be priced 10 per cent below their net asset value. Fund management charges of 0.8 per cent seem reasonable for professional stock selection in a sector where older investors may struggle to keep up with the pace of innovation. • Read more money advice and tips on investing from our experts For example, when I worked in the City office of another newspaper, three people were employed in the library just to collate clippings about companies listed on the stock exchange. Now all that information, and much more, is available on my mobile. Returning to where we began, I take contrarian comfort from the fact that many critics claim AI is all hype. As I may have pointed out before, perennial pessimism is an easy way to simulate wisdom about the stock market, but it ain't the way to make money. Space is the final frontier for new technology, and few have gone there more boldly, albeit by proxy, than the eccentric billionaire Elon Musk. Even if you wouldn't dream of getting into one of his rockets, with their star-studded passenger lists, there is good reason to consider gaining exposure to Space Exploration Technologies, or SpaceX, as an investment. Musk's antics with the equally eccentric President Trump may have distracted attention from the fact that SpaceX has lifted more than 8,000 satellites into low earth orbit. This has already extended the internet to parts of our planet that were previously offline. Most importantly, from a commercial point of view, if data capacity can be expanded sufficiently, SpaceX and its Starlink wi-fi subsidiary could eventually replace every internet service provider on Earth. Coming down from the clouds of technical speculation, small investors willing to accept high risks can gain a ground-level stake in SpaceX via a handful of investment trusts holding these unlisted shares. To be specific, just more than 14 per cent of Edinburgh Worldwide's £770 million assets is invested in two tranches of SpaceX stock. I paid £1.52 an Edinburgh Worldwide share in January 2024. It has been a bumpy ride, as you might expect, and there are no dividends, but I am happy to hang on to shares trading at £1.94 on Wednesday. Drawing inspiration from the Spitfire that flew over my head a few moments ago, I am reminded of the Royal Air Force motto, per ardua ad astra, which means through adversity to the stars. Perhaps even more appropriately, this small shareholder could say: 'Beam me up, Musky!'
Daily Mail
an hour ago
- Daily Mail
How Sir Jim Ratcliffe believes £50million Carrington refurbishment and nods to Man United's glorious past can help deliver a 'winning culture' in Ruben Amorim's side
Every few years, Manchester United like to take assorted media and other guests behind the scenes at their Carrington training ground HQ. They always do so with a sense of pride. Chief executive Ed Woodward once enthusiastically pointed to a bank of screens in the recruitment department, explaining the global data had provided 804 options for a new right-back and had concluded a £50million outlay on Aaron-Wan Bissaka as being the best deal. After Woodward left, director of football John Murtough was tour host in 2023. He let slip the club would no longer be Patsy's in the transfer market and enter protracted negotiations with Tottenham chairman Daniel Levy for Harry Kane. Instead, they signed Rasmus Hojlund for £72million. Given that recent history, it was a somewhat cynical bunch of hacks who gathered at Carrington on Friday as United rolled out the red carpet to show off a £50million refurbishment that co-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe believes will trigger a 'winning culture' at English football's biggest club. We probably won't have the definitive answer for a good while yet. Leicester City think they have the best training ground in Europe but it's not done them much good with two relegations in the last three seasons. To be fair though, United have presented their case admirably that a happy workplace will transfer to results on the pitch. Make no mistake, there are plenty of bells and whistles at the new Carrington. Underwater treadmills, F1 simulator games, sleep pods, live performance tracking in the gym, smart urinals, a barber's and menu options to make a five-star restaurant jealous. A padel court is coming soon at the request of the players. Space has been created so that personnel who previously worked at Old Trafford can now be based at Carrington. Movers include big-hitters like CEO Omar Berrada and figures in the commercial department. The intention is to make the club feel as United as its name would suggest. What made this tour feel different to others, and should give confidence to fans that a genuine rebuild is possible, is that the hierarchy have been happy to cede control to experts and allowed themselves to be advised rather than pretending to already know it all. Cutting the ribbon, Sir Jim even made a joke about having to listen to so many suggestions from manager Ruben Amorim about what the new place should look like. Amorim laughed along, slightly nervously, but he'll be pleased his input was taken into account. Arguably the most important voice during the tour was that of Patrick Campbell, a senior architect working for the renowned Sir Norman Foster. Architects love light and Campbell repeatedly stressed the need to make Carrington – variously compared to a gloomy dungeon or hospital – a brighter, more joyful place in which to work every day. The canteen area with giant windows overlooking the training pitches and a barber shop in the corner where players can invite their personal hair stylists is a space players will want to stay together after training. That extra time chatting in comfort or playing F1 chair can be important for building team spirit. Remember, Luke Shaw complained on the US tour that the culture in past seasons has been 'toxic'. Berrada will have seen a holistic approach work at Manchester City. To that end, United's new treatment room has changed location so injured players are not tucked away and ignored. They now have a space large enough to work on their rehab together. They can also see the training pitches, both providing extra motivation to get fit, but also giving a sense in the meantime of still being part of the family. Likewise, the under-23s dressing-room is no longer in a separate building but along the corridor from the first-team. Enough to give the feel of being part of the same firmament. There are enough examples of United past to remind the current players – including summer signings Bryan Mbuemo and Matheus Cunha with Benjamin Sesko due to follow – of who they are representing. Sir Alex Ferguson unveiled a plaque by the main entrance in honour of receptionist Kath Phipps who greeted visitors to United for 55 years before her death last year. He chatted animatedly afterwards on a sofa in the first-floor lounge to his old captain Bryan Robson – both seemed delighted to be back. The spiral staircase linking the ground floor to the first floor is flanked by some of United's trophies and a bust of Sir Matt Busby, the manager who made it all possible. Nobody, regardless of age, will be able to walk up or down through the day without glancing at them. The £50million question of course is whether it will ultimately make any difference to United's ambitions to first return to the Champions League, and then win their first Premier League title since Fergie left in 2013. Of all the players on United's books, 39-year-old third-choice goalkeeper Tom Heaton is probably best qualified to say. He started at the club aged 11 and was turning pro when United first moved to Carrington in 2000. He was part of the squad that won the Champions League under Ferguson in 2008 before furthering his career as first-choice with Burnley and Aston Villa, returning to Old Trafford in 2001. 'It felt like a pivotal moment when we moved to Carrington. They were incredible facilities for that time, but the game evolves,' says Heaton. 'By the end, it wasn't quite up to what we wanted. 'We went away from the main building last season so they could rebuild and walking back through the door, we have all been blown away. We've been given an opportunity in terms of having world-class facilities. 'It is true people make a building and players on the pitch bring results. But the building can provide the help and stability into providing those performances and I think everyone is excited.' United are nothing if not ambitious. Sir Jim likened the club brand to Coca-Cola and Apple as he presented the new facility. The new media centre has been designed to meet UEFA specifications to hold Champions League press conferences, even though the team finished 15th last season. It was only at the start of last year that Sir Jim Ratcliffe bought a 27.7% share in United. Whilst the billionaire has grand schemes ahead, like making Old Trafford the Wembley of the North, this is his first completed project. He was treated respectfully by captain Bruno Fernandes and the players who attended on Friday – Rasmus Hojlund greeted him with a strong handshake and a 'Hello Mr Chairman'. They know, in the words of Diogo Dalot, that they have 'no excuses' now they've been provided with a perfect working environment. 'Everywhere I go, however remote from the Gobi desert to northern Greenland, I bump into Manchester United fans,' said Sir Jim.
