Which candidates might miss out thanks to Tasmania's Hare-Clark vote counting system
We know the Liberals will be the biggest group in the new Tasmanian Parliament, with at least 14 seats out of 35.
Labor has 10 seats and the Greens five, while there are four independents.
With vote counting set to continue using Tasmania's Hare-Clark system, here are some of the big questions that will be answered by the end of the week.
Depending on how the counts go, we may be waiting until Saturday for an answer.
Tasmanian Electoral Commissioner Andrew Hawkey says the distribution of preferences will start on Tuesday afternoon, once the deadline for postal votes has passed and the last batch is received.
Before that, there's some final checking and all the votes from each booth are combined.
They'll also start preparing for the first round of distributions by sorting the second preferences of those candidates who polled more than a quota.
"Where you have something like Mr Rockliff, who has so many first preferences, all his ballot papers are thrown for count two," Mr Hawkey said.
"They will sort of do the movement of those ballot papers, looking at every count two on every one of these ballot papers, and that'll be physically moved on Monday."
For local government elections, the Tasmanian Eelectoral Commission (TEC) uses a data entry system that computerises the distribution of preferences.
It is hoped that system will be in place by the next state election.
"What that will mean is we should be able to get a result pretty much on that Tuesday afternoon," Mr Hawkey said.
With around 50 per cent of the vote, the Liberals are set to end the count with four seats in Braddon, with Jacqui Lambie Network turned independent MP Miriam Beswick, who ran as a Nationals candidate this time around, losing her seat.
Jeremy Rockliff has topped the poll statewide, with two and a half quotas.
That will be enough to carry three of his party mates across the line with him, including former federal Liberal MP Gavin Pearce.
Incumbent MPs Felix Ellis and Roger Jaensch are the two next best placed Liberals.
ABC chief election analyst Casey Briggs said while Mr Rockliff's preferences were expected to flow strongly to the incumbents, Giovanna Simpson wasn't totally out of the count.
"The only reason we have a small amount of caution is because his surplus is so big and because Giovanna Simpson performed quite well on preferences in last year's election," he said.
According to Mr Briggs, the electorate of Bass is "one of the most complicated" in recent memory.
The Liberals will hold their three seats, Labor is set to hold its two, and the Greens one.
"That's six of the seats, but then the surpluses for every other party are sitting somewhere between 0.2 and 0.4 of a quota."
Whichever candidates can accumulate preferences and outlast their competitors will take a Steven Bradbury-esque win.
It means that while Labor pulled only 2.2 quotas — and Jess Greene and Geoff Lyons are still in a contest to become the party's second MP in the electorate — it may still be able to win a third.
Compare that to Franklin, where the Liberals won around 2.7 quotas, but are destined for two seats.
Mr Briggs also said Bridget Archer's strong vote may complicate things for the Liberals.
The former federal MP has more than 1.5 quotas, but due to her high profile there's a chance some of her vote may "leak" to other candidates, rather than stay within the Liberal ticket.
"It's possible there are people in Bass that have voted for Bridget Archer, but not other members of the Liberal Party ticket," Mr Briggs explained.
"That would actually have the effect of bringing down the Liberals vote in that seat, and it could make it harder for them to stay ahead of other candidates," he said.
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SSF) remains the firm favourite chance of picking up its first ever seat in Lyons, according to Mr Briggs.
But with the party's Carlo di Falco sitting on just over half a quota, Mr Briggs said it was not locked in.
"His primary vote has fallen a little bit, as we expected, as more postal votes have been counted and out of division, pre-polls and other non-election day votes have been counted," he said.
If the SFF fails, the Liberals' Stephanie Cameron may have a chance — she's around 0.2 of a quota behind.
Labor's vote tanked in Franklin, with a near 5 per cent swing against the party and leader Dean Winter failing to secure a quota.
The ABC has called two seats for them though, with first-term MP Meg Brown best placed to secure the second seat.
But she will have to hold off high-profile candidate and Unions Tasmania boss Jess Munday, who she leads by around 1,000 votes.
With the Liberals holding their two Clark seats and Marcus Vermey topping the poll for the party, it means he's set to topple either Madeleine Ogilvie or Simon Behrakis.
At this stage, Mr Behrakis remains ahead of Ms Ogilvie by around 1,000 votes.
"It's not a done deal just yet," Mr Briggs said.
"We will need to see some of those lower-placing Liberal candidates excluded to be sure of that."
This was Marcus Vermey's third campaign in the last 16 months, having unsuccessfully contested last year's state election and May's Legislative Council election — the long runway helping him get over the hump.
Mr Briggs said the Hare-Clark voting system meant incumbents could be vulnerable to a popular outsider, with voters able to avoid certain candidates but still stick with their favoured party.
"The Tasmanian electoral system requires candidates to build their own profiles, have good standing with the electorate, and be out there connecting with voters and actively campaigning," he said.
"You can't coast along on your party's name because that makes you vulnerable to being defeated by a more popular member of your own party."
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SBS Australia
19 minutes ago
- SBS Australia
Are Australians at risk from lifting the restrictions on US beef imports?
"Australia bans — and they're wonderful people, and wonderful everything — but they ban American beef. Yet we imported $3 billion of Australian beef from them just last year alone. They won't take any of our beef. They don't want it because they don't want it to affect their farmers and, you know what I don't blame them, but we're doing the same thing.' When United States President Donald Trump singled out Australia's ban on US beef imports, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he would never compromise on protecting farmers or biosecurity. "We have made it very clear to the United States that we will not compromise on biosecurity. We will not weaken the measures that protect our farmers and producers from the risks of disease or contamination. Indeed, we've made it a priority to strengthen biosecurity, because one of the things that makes Australian food and fibre the best in the world is a people everywhere, know that it stands for quality. It also stands for safety." Now, ahead of the tariff deadline on August 1, Australia's restrictions on US beef imports have been dropped. But the government says the timing of the decision is a coincidence, and has nothing to do with Donald Trump. Minister for Agriculture, Julie Collins, says a review into the US beef ban began in 2015 under the Coalition Government. "This decision has been purely based on science and a rigorous assessment by my department. Biosecurity risk assessment process is very robust and I have faith in the officials in my department to do this appropriately. These are experts in the field. Australia's biosecurity system is world-renowned for a reason and this assessment has now been completed." In 2019, Australia changed restrictions to allow beef imports from cattle traceably born, raised, and slaughtered in the US. In practice, however, the ongoing biosecurity rules meant that only a small amount of beef, largely shelf-stable products, were imported from the US. "We are assured that the supply chain and traceability and the safety of any food coming into Australia is safe. The US, of course, has been able to bring beef into Australia since 2019. Our farmers, are of course, are exporting already to the United States. We're exporting over four billion dollars' worth of beef to the United States presently and our farmers are a net beneficiary of our two-way trading system." So, why was the ban imposed in the first place? And should Australians be concerned about eating beef imported from the US? In 2003, Australia placed restrictions on the import of US beef in response to an outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, more commonly known as Mad Cow Disease. Humans cannot contract mad cow disease, though in rare cases they can develop a variant which leads to dementia and premature death. However, the Australian food regulator deems US beef is low-risk. Trade Minister Don Farrell says the government would not compromise standards for trade. "We have not made any compromise and we certainly have not compromised Australia's strict biosecurity laws. This has been a process that's been underway for the last 10 years. It's now come to a completion and it's appropriate that we announce the results of that inquiry. But at no stage do we risk our terrific biosecurity standards for any trade arrangement." One key concern remaining after 2019 was that Mexico's livestock tracking system could inadvertently allow beef from disease-affected regions to enter Australia. However, the government says the review has found that the US Department of Agriculture protocols for beef imported from Canada and Mexico now address Australia's biosecurity concerns. Mark Thomas, the Chair of the Western Beef Association, says it's unclear how effective the US tracking system is. "Well, we implement an NIL system, as they call it, so any animal that's born on your property has a electronic tag, and that same tag is scanned and transferred whenever that animal leaves your property, all the way through to sort of slaughter. So an animal that's been slaughtered, they can go back and work out where that animal has been over its lifetime. I am unsure how quickly America can get up to speed. However, it's taken many, many years for Australia to implement that system and make sure that it works efficiently." Despite government assurances, National Party leader David Littleproud is among critics calling for an independent examination into the matter. "The government has not provided or released the protocols on which the beef from the U.S could be imported into this country. Those are the legal requirements that an importer would have to meet to bring beef from the United States into Australia, that was from Mexico or Canada. The fact they haven't done that raises serious concerns to me around how this decision has been made and the timing of it. If it was well planned, the department would be able to provide me with those details. They have not. I think the prudent way forward is to have an independent scientific panel review the department's decision and the protocols when they came out." Along with concerns about the spread of disease, there are also concerns about differing US regulations around the use of hormones and antibiotics on cattle. While some cattle in the US are given approved natural or synthetic hormones to help them grow, the US Food and Drug Administration regulates these, and experts say they are in extremely low levels. US beef, according to both Australian and US officials, is safe to eat, but is it better than Australian beef? Evangeline Mantzioris is the Program Director of Nutrition and Food Sciences at the University of South Australia. She says the diet of an animal impacts the nutritional value of the meat. "What it comes down to is the type of feed that the animals are given. So in the US they tend to be grain-fed whilst here in Australia, they tend to be grass-fed, and that produces differences in the way that the body of the cow handles it and in the way that they make and lay down fat in their body. The other thing that might make a slight difference is also the genetics of the cows. So assuming it's the same breed of cow, we expect grain-fed to lead to more fat in the meat compared to grass-fed." Studies show that grass-fed beef can be 30 to 75 per cent lower in fat than grain-fed. Grass-fed is also reported to have higher levels of beneficial Omega-3 fats, up to five times more antioxidants, and slightly higher protein, with some studies also indicating lower cholesterol. So, for consumers, choosing between local and imported beef will mostly come down to personal preference rather than health concerns. Dr Mantzioris says while the differences aren't major, grass-fed beef is the best option. "So if we combine all of those different components of the beef that we've looked at, overall grass fed beef, which is what we have in Australia, is the healthier option." But what about Australian farmers? When Australia lifted the ban, Donald Trump wrote on social media that the US was now going to sell 'so much beef' to Australia. Australia is the second largest exporter of beef products in the world. And while Australians are some of the highest per capita consumers of beef products, our relatively small population means we have a lot left to export. Mark Thomas says he isn't too worried about competing with U-S products. "Well, I suppose, from a from a cattle perspective's point of view, our only concern would be if we thought that US beef was going to compete with our own product here in Australia, and I don't believe that that is going to do so based on the price of cattle in the US over a longer period of time and considering their cattle numbers compared to what we have here in Australia." In fact, US cattle stocks have been in decline for two decades. The United States is the second largest importer of beef globally and cattle stocks in the country are the lowest they've been since the 1950's. The US Department of Agriculture says beef prices have increased by 8 per cent since the start of 2025, with one kilogram of beef costing around AU$30.. Mark Thomas says with beef shortages in the United States, it's unlikely the Australian market is going to be flooded with imported US beef. "Well, currently, there's a lot of Australian beef going into the US market, purely because they need it. At the moment, cattle prices in the US are just quoting a heavy steer close to $5 whereas that same animal in Australia is only going for $2.50 so how can they purchase an animal for $5 a kilo? Process it, send it to the other side of the world and expect to compete with the product that we have here?" While beef prices have been increasing in the United States, Australian beef exports broke an all-time monthly record in June. And the biggest buyer was, that's right, the United States. In New York, Stew Leonard Junior is the CEO of a grocery chain. He says he gets grass-fed beef from Australia and plans on splitting the tariff cost with his supplier. "We are a huge meat purchaser, and it's mainly the US. So you know, there could be some, that's one of our trains going by up there, okay, for the kids right there, they love that. But one of the things we don't get a lot from Australia, the only thing we do get is our grass-fed beef. They sell beautiful grass- fed beef in Australia. That's being tariffed a little bit. We're splitting that tariff with our supplier. We don't really buy beef from Canada or Mexico or Argentina."
News.com.au
19 minutes ago
- News.com.au
UN climate boss warns of 'mega-droughts' in dire climate forecast for Australia
Australians have been warned that fruit and vegetables may become a 'once-a-year treat' if the country fails to drastically lift its clean energy ambitions. In a stark message delivered in Sydney on Monday, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said Australia faced a future of 'mega-droughts', plummeting living standards and eye-watering economic losses if it does not go much further on emissions cuts. 'Mega-droughts (will make) fresh fruit and veg a once-a-year treat. In total, the country could face a $6.8 trillion GDP loss by 2050,' Mr Stiell said during an address hosted by the Smart Energy Council, per The Australian. His speech landed during a critical moment in Australia's climate debate, with the Albanese government preparing to reveal its updated 2035 emissions target and push to co-host the next UN climate summit, COP31, alongside Pacific nations. But as momentum builds internationally, domestic political opposition is also ramping up, chiefly led by Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce, who introduced a Private Member's bill this week to repeal Australia's net-zero commitment. Mr Stiell, who meets with Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen in Canberra today, said setting an ambitious target wasn't just about the environment, but rather economic survival. 'Australia has a strong economy and among the highest living standards in the world. If you want to keep them, doubling down on clean energy is an economic no-brainer,' he warned. 'Living standards could drop by over $7000 per person per year. And rising seas, resource pressures, and extreme weather would destabilise Australia's neighbourhood – from Pacific Island nations to Southeast Asia – threatening your security.' Australia's current pledge is to cut emissions by 43 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. 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Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce on Monday accused inner-city Australians of pushing policies that harm the disadvantaged, saying: 'Are you prepared to hurt the poor?' Mr Joyce's 'Repeal Net Zero' bill, backed by several Coalition rebels, proposes scrapping Australia's carbon-neutral target by 2050, a goal in line with most other developed nations. 'There's absolutely no reason that Mascot Airport can't work 24/7,' he told reporters. 'But we understand that people don't want planes flying over themselves in the middle of the night … but we don't want transmission lines over our head either. We don't want wind towers either, so there's got to be a form of quid pro quo.' His argument suggests city-dwellers are demanding action on climate change without shouldering its costs, leaving regional communities to deal with some sort of flow-on infrastructure burden. 'You don't feel virtuous if you're hurting people,' Mr Joyce said. While the bill is unlikely to pass without support from Liberal moderates, Mr Joyce's position is influential within the Nationals and perhaps reflects a growing pushback on climate policy from prominent sections of the Coalition. Joining him outside Parliament House were fellow Nationals Michael McCormack and Liberal MP Garth Hamilton, the only member of the senior Coalition partner to back the bill publicly. Mr Stiell responded to the political noise over the past fortnight with a message of economic pragmatism and global responsibility. 'I think Australians get it. From cabinet rooms to boardrooms, from farms to factories to kitchen tables, you know unchecked climate change is an economic wrecking ball,' he said. 'You know half-measures will destroy property and infrastructure, hammer households, bankrupt regions, and punch holes in public budgets. And you know that real action opens the door to real leadership – and big rewards for this ambitious, capable country.' He warned Australians against short-term thinking and urged them to embrace a rapid energy transition. 'The change is working,' he said. 'Now consider the alternative: missing the opportunity and letting the world overheat. Go for what's smart by going big. Go for what will build lasting wealth and national security. Go for what will change the game – and stand the test of time. Go for it.'
Daily Telegraph
21 minutes ago
- Daily Telegraph
Viva dives and farewell Sir Michael
Don't miss out on the headlines from Stockhead. Followed categories will be added to My News. ASX dips despite energy stocks firing up Viva Energy dives but Liontown, Ramelius, Sandfire shine Jeweller Sir Michael Hill dies The ASX was down 0.25% at Tuesday lunchtime on the eastern seaboard. Markets also softened across Asia, with investors now bracing for a week of crucial economic data, which includes the Fed Reserve decision on Wednesday. Most ASX sectors were bleeding red this morning, and discretionary was the only one offering any resistance. Most energy stocks rose, and you can thank Donald Trump for that. He was back with another geopolitical ultimatum, this time telling Russia it's got 10 to 12 days to pull its troops out of Ukraine or face a 100% tariff wall. Markets didn't exactly like that, but oil sure did. Brent cracked US$70 and WTI surged 2% overnight. Source: Market Index In the large end of town, Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS) climbed 1.4% after taking the reins of Bass Strait gas operations from ExxonMobil Australia. The move, it said, gives Woodside control over a massive east coast energy source and could unlock US$60 million in synergies, not to mention the potential to drill four new gas wells. But not all energy names were basking in the oil glow. Viva Energy (ASX:VEA) tumbled 9% after warning that first-half earnings were set to disappoint. The culprits, it said, were weak convenience store sales, a 27% collapse in tobacco revenue (blame new packaging laws and black-market smokes), and refining margins that ran out of puff. Meanwhile, lithium player Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) fell 3% despite reporting a record $23 million in positive operating cash flow for the June quarter, and $301 million in full-year revenue. LTR confirmed it's still on track to become Australia's first fully underground lithium operation. 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ASX SMALL CAP WINNERS Here are the best-performing ASX small cap stocks for July 29 : Security Description Last % Volume MktCap RAN Range International 0.003 50% 37,086 $1,878,581 BEO Beonic Ltd 0.320 49% 139,421 $15,235,117 BSA BSA Limited 0.105 44% 2,320,025 $5,496,919 NOX Noxopharm Limited 0.130 34% 1,956,239 $28,347,081 HLX Helix Resources 0.002 33% 2,000,000 $5,046,291 D3E D3 Energy Limited 0.340 26% 374,462 $21,458,252 ALR Altairminerals 0.005 25% 15,695,023 $17,186,977 BM8 Battery Age Minerals 0.071 20% 4,593,533 $8,956,308 BDG Black Dragon Gold 0.060 20% 627,674 $15,898,303 DRE Dreadnought Resources 0.012 20% 8,277,526 $50,795,000 FBR FBR Ltd 0.006 20% 3,080,345 $28,447,261 B4P Beforepay Group 1.950 19% 129,871 $79,383,074 AJX Alexium Int Group 0.007 17% 1,757 $9,518,572 RNX Renegade Exploration 0.004 17% 912,500 $3,865,090 TON Triton Min Ltd 0.007 17% 591,070 $9,410,332 AX8 Accelerate Resources 0.008 14% 45,307 $5,720,321 RLG Roolife Group Ltd 0.004 14% 496,262 $5,574,734 RGT Argent Biopharma Ltd 0.089 14% 90,000 $5,630,286 AHL Adrad Hldings 0.750 14% 22,096 $53,660,055 NUC Nuchev Limited 0.180 13% 3,332 $23,467,622 ASQ Australian Silica 0.018 13% 196,523 $4,509,766 ATT Altitude Minerals 0.018 13% 290,000 $2,983,371 ECS ECS Botanics Holding 0.009 13% 349,222 $10,368,397 IS3 I Synergy Group Ltd 0.009 13% 2,734,827 $13,650,399 Beonic (ASX:BEO) has signed a $15.2 million contract to deploy its LiDAR passenger flow tech across seven major airports in North Africa, its largest deal in the region to date. It will kick off with a proof-of-concept at the country's main international airport, then roll out to all seven within 12 months. Beonic's share of the deal is $10.6 million, covering an initial 2.5-year term with a three-year extension option. Helix Resources (ASX:HLX) reckons its White Hills Project in northern Arizona could host a large-scale porphyry-style copper-gold system, based on early results. The site shows signs of two distinct mineralisation events along a belt known for big copper and gold finds. Historic drillholes focused only on gold and missed copper, despite rock chip samples showing grades up to 5.7% copper across a +1km anomaly zone. White Hills spans 23km² over seven tenements, and sits just 1.5 hours from Vegas. Black Dragon Gold (ASX:BDG) has entered the public consultation phase for its Salave Gold Project's PIER application in northern Spain, a key step toward getting the project classed as a Strategic Project under new regional investment laws. The 20-day consultation, running until 25 August, covers the proposed rezoning of farmland to industrial use for Salave's surface infrastructure. It's not the final sign-off, but a crucial legal step before the Agency makes its recommendation to the Asturian Government. Fintech lender Wisr (ASX:WZR) surged past its own guidance with a 154% jump in loan originations to $140 million in Q4. That marks five straight quarters of growth, as demand for personal and vehicle loans climbs. Net losses and late arrears both improved, and CEO Andrew Goodwin credited tech-driven automation for the company's comeback. ASX SMALL CAP LOSERS Here are the worst performing ASX small cap stocks for July 29 : Code Name Price % Change Volume Market Cap AYT Austin Metals Ltd 0.002 -33% 1,004,003 $4,752,574 DTM Dart Mining NL 0.003 -25% 9,197,764 $4,792,222 MRQ Mrg Metals Limited 0.003 -25% 625,000 $10,906,075 SFG Seafarms Group Ltd 0.002 -25% 1 $9,673,198 ANR Anatara Ls Ltd 0.007 -22% 4,393,904 $1,920,454 GGP Greatland Resources 5.440 -21% 5,377,202 $4,621,479,027 LM1 Leeuwin Metals Ltd 0.115 -21% 857,352 $14,616,926 PRX Prodigy Gold NL 0.002 -20% 1,400,849 $15,875,278 KZR Kalamazoo Resources 0.089 -19% 4,839,858 $24,133,287 SLA Solara Minerals 0.240 -17% 94,426 $16,815,599 TMX Terrain Minerals 0.003 -17% 3,666,666 $7,595,443 IFG Infocusgroup Hldltd 0.016 -16% 1,640,572 $5,546,844 GRL Godolphin Resources 0.011 -15% 100,000 $5,835,353 CHR Charger Metals 0.051 -15% 543,152 $4,645,215 AKN Auking Mining Ltd 0.006 -14% 379,149 $4,816,814 OVT Ovanti Limited 0.006 -14% 1,632,882 $29,920,265 SP3 Specturltd 0.012 -14% 205,778 $4,436,602 TEM Tempest Minerals 0.006 -14% 233,585 $7,712,565 SRL Sunrise 1.040 -13% 313,231 $140,188,562 RTR Rumble Res Limited 0.026 -13% 999,143 $28,527,005 AON Apollo Minerals Ltd 0.007 -13% 625,000 $7,427,655 CTO Citigold Corp Ltd 0.004 -13% 30,000 $12,000,000 VR8 Vanadium Resources 0.032 -13% 3,362,648 $20,314,507 Michael Hill (ASX:MHJ) has announced the passing of its founder and non-executive director, Sir Michael Hill. Sir Michael, who built the brand from a single store in Whangārei into a global jewellery name, was remembered as a visionary and creative force. He began with dreams of being a concert violinist, but turned to jewellery as a teen, making waves in the industry. MHJ shares were down 1%. Last Orders QPM Energy (ASX:QPM) says commissioning work on the Townsville Power Station has continued, with a number of successful extended runs completed at full load for the gas turbine and generator. The company expects to be handed dispatch control under a new agreement over the next few days, from when a new transportation and storage agreement with North Queensland Gas Pipeline will begin as QPM looks towards dispatching the power station for extended periods and taking advantage of near-term market pricing. Firetail Resources (ASX:FTL) has further expanded the discovery potential of its newly acquired Excelsior gold project in Nevada, with interpretation of existing data supporting both an extension of the prospective Buster trend to beyond 5km and the existence one lying parallel. Field mapping and sampling also spotted up more undocumented exploration adits, and Firetail managing director Glenn Poole said the active exploration campaign was delivering important information as the company looks towards getting a rig on the ground and testing the project's enormous potential. New World Resources (ASX:NWC) has entered a binding US$6.5m loan facility agreement with Kinterra to continue advancing its Antler copper project towards development in Arizona. The proceeds are marked to meet state bonding requirements, secure key land parcels, and provide general working capital and payment of costs related to Kinterra's takeover. In Case You Missed It Brazilian Critical Minerals (ASX:BCM) continues to advance its flagship Ema rare earths project in Brazil on multiple fronts as offtake interest grows and BCM works to complete a key bankable feasibility study. Nimy Resources (ASX:NIM) has capped off a gallium-focused drilling campaign with more high-grade returns as the company turns its attention towards a maiden resource. Elevate Uranium (ASX:EL8) has entered a transformative stage in its U-pgrade™ beneficiation process, with the final factory testing and shipment of a pilot plant to Namibia on track for early next month. At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While QPM Energy, Firetail Resources and New World Resources are Stockhead advertisers, they did not sponsor this article. This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions. Originally published as Lunch Wrap: ASX dips as Viva Energy plunges; RIP Sir Michael Hill, jeweller
