How Can al-Sharaa Prevent the Overthrow of his Regime?

Asharq Al-Awsat

11-03-2025

It is rare to hear of a regime in our time that has triumphed and treated its followers and affiliates with nobility and tolerance, as we have seen with Ahmad al-Sharaa in Syria. In Iraq, the Baathists dragged communists through the streets, and before them, the communists participated in the extermination of monarchists.
The Americans pursued the remnants of Saddam and dismissed half a million people associated with him. In Syria itself, Salah Jadid hanged nationalists, only to be overthrown by Hafez al-Assad, who then buried thousands of Hama's residents alive as collective punishment for a faction's rebellion. His son, Bashar, followed suit, digging mass graves and filling prisons. The United Nations archived tens of thousands of images smuggled by a forensic doctor, making it the largest documented case of murder and torture in history.
Unfortunately, wars bring out deep-seated grudges and vendettas. However, to his credit, the new Syrian ruler's first message upon entering Damascus was to reassure the Alawites before anyone else, along with other minorities and those who had worked with the regime, excluding those involved in murder and torture. We witnessed a swift acceptance of the new regime.
The armed rebellion in the coastal region is not surprising; it was expected after the fall of a regime that ruled for half a century. Transition requires wisdom, patience, inclusion, and communication – it cannot be managed by force alone.
Yet, there are forces that will not stop destabilizing the situation and fueling public distrust against the new regime – those who lost power, as well as regional regimes that suffered from Assad's downfall, such as Iran and its militias in Iraq and Hezbollah. There are various factions – Sunni, Christian, and Alawite – that supported Assad's regime and lost their privileges with his fall, and they will work against Damascus today. The narrative of hostility toward the Alawites is specifically being pushed by remnants of the deposed regime to provoke nearly two million Alawites into siding with them. Even fleeing figures from Assad's regime, like Rami Makhlouf, are seeking reconciliation.
This crisis tests the new regime's leadership. When it was merely an armed militia in Idlib, its responsibility for its fighters' actions was limited. Today, it is the state, and it must not let its enemies drag it into the same trench as the fallen regime, becoming another sectarian and violent entity that resorts to force instead of politics.
Most Arab states rushed to express solidarity with the Damascus government, sending a clear message to the Syrian people about where they stand. This political stance is crucial for the international community to hear. However, Damascus faces a difficult road ahead, with challenges that could last for years. Al-Sharaa cannot fight multiple wars simultaneously, such as confronting both Israel and Iran – no state has ever done so and succeeded.
His government must therefore understand Israel's intentions, or at least its expectations, as seen in its support for the Druze against what it describes as oppression by Damascus. For half a century, Israel tolerated – even protected – the Assad regime until Bashar granted Iran military privileges, prompting Israel to turn against him. Since taking office, al-Sharaa has been aware of these geopolitical realities and has stated that he does not intend to enter conflicts with his neighbors, including Israel.
It is important to remember that all neighboring states bordering Israel have signed agreements or understandings with it. Al-Sharaa will be forced to either reach an understanding with Israel or Iran – facing both adversaries at once is impossible.
Domestically, we recognize the conflicting pressures facing President al-Sharaa. Syrians who suffered under the previous regime demand exclusion and sectarian revenge. Others seek full federalization, a demand difficult to achieve during wartime, as it risks leading to separatism. Here, the president's leadership is critical in restraining both his allies and opponents, preventing political, ideological, and military clashes.
In the end, al-Sharaa's regime will succeed in resisting attempts to overthrow it and in unifying Syria while confronting the rebels. But can he shorten the time and reduce the losses?