AFL live ladder predictor: Every club's finals chances during round 23
Adelaide has edged closer to locking up top spot on the AFL ladder after outlasting Collingwood in an epic battle at the Adelaide Oval.
Amid a barrage of Collingwood inside 50s, the Crows held on to break a 10-game losing streak to the Magpies, who lost at the ground for the first time in 10 visits.
It means Adelaide has locked up a top-two spot, and can claim the minor premiership with a win over North Melbourne next week.
MORE: Crows break Collingwood hearts in finals-like epic
Earlier, Gold Coast had a chance to sew up a top four position and plan an assault on the top two, but that's all up in the air now.
The Giants came and conquered, all but securing a finals campaign in a huge upset that shakes up the ladder.
Brisbane locked up its own future with an upset of its own over the Dockers, with Fremantle now in a perilous position where they could miss finals.
It is becoming increasingly likely that there will be a 15-win team miss finals for the first time in the league's history.
This page will be updated throughout the weekend's games to show exactly who is favoured to miss the cut at any given point.
Adelaide Crows were the first to lock in finals. Picture: Janelle St Pierre/AFL Photos/via Getty Images
1. ADELAIDE
Played: 21, Won: 17, Lost: 5, Percentage: 141
RUN HOME
R24: North Melbourne, Marvel (Saturday afternoon)
What a win over Collingwood! The Crows have locked in the minor premiership - pretty much. They would need to lose to North Melbourne in round 24 to drop off, but even then, a home qualifying final awaits.
Best Case Scenario: 1st
Beat Kangaroos OR lose to Kangaroos AND Cats lose to Tigers
Worst Case Scenario: 2nd
Lose to Kangaroos AND Cats beats Tigers
Expected Finish: 1st
Beat Kangaroos OR lose to Kangaroos AND Cats lose to Tigers
The Lions secured a finals berth after their win over the Dockers. Picture: Getty Images
2. BRISBANE
Played: 22, Won: 15, Drawn: 1, Lost: 6, Percentage: 114.3
RUN HOME
R24: Hawthorn, Gabba (Sunday night)
Brisbane has secured its immediate future with a win over Fremantle – the Lions will play finals. A win over Hawthorn in round 24 could see them edge inside the top four, which is a huge result given the injury woes in recent weeks. Losing to Hawthorn would result in a home elimination final; potentially even against Hawthorn.
Best Case Scenario: 1st
Win against Hawks AND Crows lose to Magpies and Kangaroos AND Cats lose to Swans and Tigers AND Magpies lose to Demons
Worst Case Scenario: 8th
Lose against Hawks AND Giants beat Saints AND Dockers beat Bulldogs
Expected Finish: 4th
Locked up a finals appearance with a dominant win over Fremantle on Friday. Now a lot relies on the win over Hawthorn next Sunday.
We're still on Jeremy Cameron 100 watch. Picture: Getty Images
3. GEELONG
Played: 21, Won: 15, Lost: 6, Percentage: 139.8
RUN HOME
R23: Sydney, SCG (Sunday afternoon)
R24: Richmond, MCG (Saturday afternoon)
Sydney at the SCG could be a tricky fixture to venture through, but if the Cats escape victorious then a top-two finish beckons. A minor premiership is not out of reach, but it would take a Collingwood win over Adelaide and a perfect end to the season – with enough of a margin to overturn the small percentage difference.
Best Case Scenario: 1st
Win against Swans and Tigers AND Crows lose to Magpies or Kangaroos, with a 2.6% turnaround
Worst Case Scenario: 8th
Lose to Swans and Tigers AND Hawks beat Lions AND Giants beat Saints
Expected Finish: 2nd
Win against Swans and Tigers and have expected winners from other matches
A win over Sydney opens up a shot at the minor premiership, but only if the Crows slip up. But lose to the Swans and the Cats could slide outside the top four. Suns losing to Giants also firms up a top two finish
There's still a lot to play out for the Magpies. Picture: Getty Images
4. COLLINGWOOD
Played: 22, Won: 15, Lost: 6, Percentage: 123.1
RUN HOME
R24: Melbourne, MCG (Friday night)
What an eight-pointer that game was. Collingwood could've locked up a top-four finish if they held on against the Crows on a wet Saturday night. Now they need to beat Melbourne to be in the conversation for a double chance.
Best Case Scenario: 2nd
Beat Demons AND have Cats drop two, plus Lions lose to Hawthorn.
Worst Case Scenario: 8th
Lose to Melbourne AND have Giants beat Saints AND have Hawks beat Lions AND have Bulldogs beat Dockers
Expected Finish: 4th
Lose to Crows but beat Demons and have expected winners from other matches
5. HAWTHORN
Played: 22, Won: 15, Lost: 7, Percentage: 122.7
RUN HOME
R24: Brisbane, Gabba (Sunday night)
A convincing win over Melbourne has them just about locked into finals - where they end up is still up to other results. Win against Brisbane and they're a chance for top four, lose and its elimination final time. They can't finish 9th; their percentage is better than Fremantle's and they're eight points ahead of the Dogs - who play each other next week.
Best Case Scenario: 4th
Beat Lions AND have Magpies lose to Melbourne.
Worst Case Scenario: 8th
Lose to Lions, and have expected winners from the other matches
Expected Finish: 8th
Lose to Lions, and have expected winners from the other matches
The Dockers loss and Giants win means the Hawks can't finish ninth, but will likely finish eighth. An upset win at the Gabba next week pushes them into double chance territory.
GWS could make the top four or miss the finals. Picture: Getty Images
6. GWS GIANTS
Played: 22, Won: 15, Lost: 7, Percentage: 115.5
RUN HOME
R24: St Kilda, ENGIE (Sunday afternoon)
The Giants will be playing finals after their upset over the Suns. But while they can keep moving up the ladder, an elimination final beckons - very likely a home final if they knock off the Saints next week.
Best Case Scenario: 5th
Beat Saints AND have Suns lose to either Power or Bombers AND have Hawks beat Lions
Worst Case Scenario: 8th
Lose to Saints
Expected Finish: 6th
Beat Saints
The Giants stamped their ticket to the finals with the dominant upset win over the Suns. Even if they lose to the Saints in round 24, they are locked into finals. A home final beckons if they win next week.
The show is not over just yet for Nat Fyfe. Picture: Janelle St Pierre/7. FREMANTLE
Played: 22, Won: 15, Lost, 7, Percentage: 108.6
RUN HOME
R24: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (Sunday afternoon)
Get ready for a classic 'round 24 elimination final' for Fremantle. The Dockers had a real chance to lock in a finals berth on Friday, but the loss to Brisbane could cost them a September appearance. They can still make the eight without winning next week, but it would take a whole lot of luck.
Best Case Scenario: 4th
Win against Bulldogs AND Cats lose to both Swans and Tigers AND Magpies lose to both Crows and Demons AND Lions beat Hawks
Worst Case Scenario: 9th
Lose to Bulldogs and have expected winners from other matches
Expected Finish: 9th
Lose to Bulldogs and have expected winners from other matches
The Dockers' destiny is still in their hands - win and they're in. But lose and they miss out. A true Round 24 elimination final.
The Suns are on the verge of their first finals campaign. Picture:8. GOLD COAST
Played: 21, Won: 14, Lost: 7, Percentage: 121.2
RUN HOME
R24: Port Adelaide, AO (Friday night)
R24: Essendon, PFS (Wednesday night)
Could the loss at home against the Giants be the moment in history we look back at? Surely the Suns don't miss finals from here, but the pressure is on to hold onto a double chance.
Best Case Scenario: 3rd
Win games against Power and Bombers AND have Lions lose to Hawks
Worst Case Scenario: 9th
Lose games against Power and Bombers
Expected Finish: 3rd
Win against Power and Bombers AND have Cats win against either Swans or Tigers
A loss against the Giants has cost them a home qualifying final, but the Suns can still get a double chance - they just need to win out from here.
The Bulldogs' last game of the season will determine their fate. Picture: Getty Images
9. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Played: 21, Won: 13, Lost: 8, Percentage: 135.4
RUN HOME
R23: West Coast, Marvel (Sunday twilight)
R24: Fremantle, Marvel (Sunday afternoon)
Luke Beveridge needs to echo the mantra of Dory from Finding Nemo: 'Just keep s-winning.'
Knocking off the Eagles is a start, but the Bulldogs will likely need to beat Fremantle in the final round to make the top 8. But their destiny is still in their own hands, their percentage is superior to those around them. Just keep winning.
Best Case Scenario: 4th
Win both games AND have Giants lose to Saints AND have Suns lose to either Power or Bombers
Worst Case Scenario: 9th
Lose to Dockers
Expected Finish: 7th
Win both games and have the expected winners from other matches would lead to a 6th-place finish.
The Bulldogs won't miss finals if they win their final two games, and would need results to go their way if they were to drop one of the two clashes. Round 24 v Fremantle could be an elimination final.
Originally published as AFL live ladder: Who will finish in the top eight, miss the finals
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