Tropical Storm Erin spaghetti models. Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Florida in path?
Erin is expected to become a hurricane Friday, Aug. 15, and a major hurricane by Sunday morning. A major hurricane is a Category 3 or stronger storm with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
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The current forecast calls for Erin's winds to increase to 125 mph within five days, making it a strong Category 3 storm. A Category 4 storm has maximum sustained winds of at least 130 mph.
Erin is expected to turn north at some point, staying away from Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Lee County, Florida and the east coast of the United States.
However, the "risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing," the National Hurricane Center said.
The fifth-named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Erin formed on Aug. 11, earlier than the historical average of Aug. 22.
➤ Hurricane drama vs. data: Why Erin is a minuscule threat to Florida, U.S. east coast
Tropical Storm Erin update, path
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Location: 890 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands
Maximum sustained winds: 60 mph
Movement: west at 17 mph
Pressure: 999 mb
When will Tropical Storm Erin become a hurricane?
Tropical Storm Erin is expected to become a hurricane Friday, Aug. 15.
"Significant intensification" is possible Friday and Saturday, and Erin is expected to become a strong Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph in five days, according to the National Hurricane Center.
➤ Hurricane drama vs. data: Why Erin is a miniscule threat to Florida, U.S. east coast
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Erin. Where is the storm going?
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Track Tropical Storm Erin
Is there a hurricane coming to Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Lee County, Florida?
No. Erin should gradually turn more west-northwestward Thursday night, with that path continuing into the weekend.
On that path, Erin would remain over open water and away from Florida and the U.S.
Remember, forecasts can change, so it's always best to be prepared.
What impacts could Tropical Storm Erin have on Florida?
"There is still a greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda in the long range," the National Hurricane Center said.
However, "the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing."
How strong is Tropical Storm Erin and where could it go? See the scenarios
At 11 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 49.7 West.
Erin is moving toward the west near 17 mph. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, with this motion expected to continue into the weekend.
On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Erin is expected to become a hurricane on Friday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center.
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Erin
Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Erin is beginning to strengthen and is expected to become a hurricane Aug. 14.
"There continues to be confidence that Erin will be a large and powerful hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean this weekend."
There is still a greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda in the long range.
Locally heavy rainfall, high surf and rip currents, and tropical-storm force winds could occur in portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend as the core of Erin passes north of those islands.
The risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing.
Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Erin get?
At 11 a.m.: 60 mph
12 hours: 65 mph
24 hours: 75 mph
36 hours: 90 mph
48 hours: 105 mph
60 hours: 110 mph
72 hours: 115 mph
96 hours: 120 mph
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This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: NHC Erin tracker: Path, spaghetti models. Fort Myers impact
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