Latest news with #TropicalStormErin
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2 days ago
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Royal Caribbean reroutes cruise to avoid Tropical Storm Erin
Royal Caribbean reroutes cruise to avoid Tropical Storm Erin originally appeared on TravelHost. While the eastern Pacific hurricane season already disrupted a few Carnival Cruise Line sailings in the Mexican Riviera earlier this summer, the Atlantic hurricane season hasn't caused much trouble for cruise lines just yet. That's likely to change, however, as peak hurricane season eyes are on the Atlantic now as Tropical Storm Erin is expected to soon become the first major hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The National Hurricane Center predicts that Erin will strengthen into a hurricane by Aug. 15, and potentially reach Category 3 intensity by Aug. 17 as the storm passes close to several Caribbean islands. What does that mean for cruises? While it may be too early to tell, Royal Caribbean has already made one proactive change to avoid the approaching storm's path and offer passengers the chance to visit an alternate will Tropical Storm Erin impact cruises? On Aug. 13, Tropical Storm Erin was strengthening as it moved westward toward the Caribbean on a forecasted path to likely pass just north of the northern Leeward Islands as a hurricane over the weekend. Erin is expected to bring some impacts to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the weekend as well, but the extent of those impacts is not yet certain. Although the worst of the storm is expected to stay north of those Caribbean islands, Erin may bring bad weather to other areas next week. Most computer models show Erin curving northward away from the U.S., but where that turn happens will determine how much of an impact the storm will have on the U.S. East Coast as well as The Bahamas and could mean sailing through rough seas for a number of cruises next week, and Royal Caribbean has already made one proactive itinerary change in the interest of safety. Although a storm's turn northward often brings good news for the coastal U.S., it sometimes brings a bigger threat to Bermuda. It's too early to say how closely Erin will come to the British overseas territory in the western North Atlantic Ocean, but Royal Caribbean has decided not to take any chances with a ship that was scheduled to sail between Bermuda and The Bahamas early next week. Be the first to see the best deals on cruises, special sailings, and more. Sign up for the Come Cruise With Me newsletter. Royal Caribbean trades Bermuda for Florida due to tropical storm To avoid potential storm impacts, Royal Caribbean changed the itinerary for its Aug. 14 cruise from Baltimore aboard Vision of the Seas, which was scheduled to overnight at Bermuda's Royal Naval Dockyard from Aug. 16 – 17 before heading to The Bahamas. Ahead of the cruise's departure, Royal Caribbean notified passengers that the ship will now sail to Florida instead of Bermuda, an unexpected move that gives passengers the chance to spend a full day in Orlando as the ship calls to Port Canaveral on Aug. 17. The change will mean an extra day at sea, but also allows the ship to arrive earlier to The Bahamas on Aug. 19, giving passengers more time to spend in the port of Nassau. The ship will also visit Royal Caribbean's private island in The Bahamas, Perfect Day at CocoCay, on Aug. 20 before sailings back to Jewel is also scheduled to visit Bermuda from Aug. 17 – 19. No itinerary change has been reported for that cruise, which departs Aug. 15 from Boston, but it's possible that Norwegian Cruise Line may also need to adjust a Bermuda cruise itinerary should the storm become a more significant threat to the archipelago. Royal Caribbean's Liberty of the Seas is also scheduled to overnight in Bermuda from Aug. 18 – 19. The cruise line will surely continue to keep a close eye on Erin's path and notify passengers if an itinerary change becomes necessary for that cruise from Cape Liberty, New Jersey. Tropical Storm Erin could also impact cruises in The Bahamas next week with at least some rough seas. (The Arena Group will earn a commission if you book a cruise.) , or email Amy Post at or call or text her at 386-383-2472. This story was originally reported by TravelHost on Aug 13, 2025, where it first appeared. Solve the daily Crossword
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4 days ago
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Tropical Storm Erin spaghetti models. Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Florida in path?
Tropical Storm Erin is starting to strengthen as it continues its westward path across the Atlantic, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Erin is expected to become a hurricane Friday, Aug. 15, and a major hurricane by Sunday morning. A major hurricane is a Category 3 or stronger storm with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location The current forecast calls for Erin's winds to increase to 125 mph within five days, making it a strong Category 3 storm. A Category 4 storm has maximum sustained winds of at least 130 mph. Erin is expected to turn north at some point, staying away from Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Lee County, Florida and the east coast of the United States. However, the "risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing," the National Hurricane Center said. The fifth-named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Erin formed on Aug. 11, earlier than the historical average of Aug. 22. ➤ Hurricane drama vs. data: Why Erin is a minuscule threat to Florida, U.S. east coast Tropical Storm Erin update, path Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. Location: 890 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands Maximum sustained winds: 60 mph Movement: west at 17 mph Pressure: 999 mb When will Tropical Storm Erin become a hurricane? Tropical Storm Erin is expected to become a hurricane Friday, Aug. 15. "Significant intensification" is possible Friday and Saturday, and Erin is expected to become a strong Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph in five days, according to the National Hurricane Center. ➤ Hurricane drama vs. data: Why Erin is a miniscule threat to Florida, U.S. east coast Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Erin. Where is the storm going? Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. ➤ Track Tropical Storm Erin Is there a hurricane coming to Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Lee County, Florida? No. Erin should gradually turn more west-northwestward Thursday night, with that path continuing into the weekend. On that path, Erin would remain over open water and away from Florida and the U.S. Remember, forecasts can change, so it's always best to be prepared. What impacts could Tropical Storm Erin have on Florida? "There is still a greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda in the long range," the National Hurricane Center said. However, "the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing." How strong is Tropical Storm Erin and where could it go? See the scenarios At 11 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 49.7 West. Erin is moving toward the west near 17 mph. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, with this motion expected to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Erin is expected to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center. Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Erin Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Erin is beginning to strengthen and is expected to become a hurricane Aug. 14. "There continues to be confidence that Erin will be a large and powerful hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean this weekend." There is still a greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda in the long range. Locally heavy rainfall, high surf and rip currents, and tropical-storm force winds could occur in portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend as the core of Erin passes north of those islands. The risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing. Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Erin get? At 11 a.m.: 60 mph 12 hours: 65 mph 24 hours: 75 mph 36 hours: 90 mph 48 hours: 105 mph 60 hours: 110 mph 72 hours: 115 mph 96 hours: 120 mph Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past? Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text What's next? We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: NHC Erin tracker: Path, spaghetti models. 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4 days ago
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Jacksonville's weekend forecast as Erin is projected to become 'powerful' Cat 4 hurricane
In a rush? Get an abbreviated, text view of what's happening with Tropical Storm Erin. Tropical Storm Erin is expected to become a Category 4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 130-mph, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Erin was a strong tropical storm Friday morning, Aug. 15, and is expected to become a hurricane later today and a major hurricane by early Sunday morning. A major hurricane is one that's a Category 3 storm or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location Where is Erin's path headed ? As of this morning, "Erin will be a large and powerful hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean this weekend," the National Hurricane Center said, adding that tropical storm watches have been issued for several islands in the Caribbean. Is Erin headed to Jacksonville? What impact will it have? Tropical Storm Erin isn't exactly headed to Jacksonville. However, the impact Erin will have on Florida and the eastern coast of the United States remains uncertain. Forecasters said "the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week continues to increase." According to the National Weather Service there is a medium 50 percent chance of a disturbance forming in the southwestern Gulf. For Jacksonville, the NWS continues to warn beachgoers for rough surf and deadly rip currents projected for next week. ➤ Hurricane drama vs. data: Why Erin is a miniscule threat to Florida, U.S. east coast Jacksonville Heat Advisory: August 15, 2025 Jacksonville continues to heat up. For the third day in a row this week, the National Weather Service has issued a Heat Advisory, in effect today from 11 am through 7 pm for portions of northeast Florida and most of southeast Georgia. The maximum Heat Indices will be 108-112 degrees within the advisory. What is the weather in Jacksonville today: August 15, 2025? Jacksonville can expect sunny and hot conditions for today, with a high near 96 degrees. The heat index could reach up to 110 degrees. Will it rain? It is very likely, as the National Weather Service is calling for a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2 p.m. Expect mostly Winds from the west at 5–7 mph, shifting to the north in the afternoon. Rainfall amounts are expected to be between 0.1 and 0.25 inches, with higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. For tonight, a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms remains, mainly before 9 p.m. With skies expected to be mostly cloudy, and cooling off with a low of around 77. Winds from the southeast at around 6 mph will become calm later in the evening. What's the weather in Jacksonville this weekend? Here's what the National Weather Service forecast looks like for this weekend: Saturday:A chance of showers in the morning, becoming likely with thunderstorms after 11 a.m. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 95 degrees. Heat index values may reach up to 106. Winds will be calm early, shifting to the east around 6 mph in the afternoon, with a 70 percent chance of rain. Rainfall between 0.1 and 0.25 inches, with higher amounts possible in storms. Saturday Night:Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8 p.m. Partly cloudy with a low near 76, and calmer wind overnight, going East around 6mph. With a 60 percent chance of rain Sunday:A chance of showers early, with showers and thunderstorms likely again after 11 a.m. Partly sunny with a high near 92. Light north wind increasing to 5–10 mph from the northeast, with gusts up to 16 mph, with a 70 percent chance of rain. Sunday Night:Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11 p.m., with a slight chance of showers until around 2 a.m. Partly cloudy, with a low near 75, and a 60 percent chance of rain. Tropical Storm Erin update, path Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. Location: 520 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands; 1,690 miles east of West Palm Beach Maximum sustained winds: 70 mph Movement: west-northwest at 17 mph Pressure: 991 mb Next advisory: 11 a.m. ET When will Tropical Storm Erin become a hurricane? Tropical Storm Erin was close to hurricane strengthen at 8 a.m., with maximum sustained winds at 70 mph. A tropical storm is designated as a hurricane when maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph. Erin is expected to become a hurricane Friday, Aug. 15 and become a major hurricane over the weekend. ➤ Hurricane drama vs. data: Why Erin is a miniscule threat to Florida, U.S. east coast Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Erin. Where is the storm going? Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. ➤ Track Tropical Storm Erin Is there a hurricane coming to Florida? No. Erin is moving west-northwest and the center of the storm is expected to remain east of Florida. Remember, forecasts can change so it's always best to be prepared. What impacts could Tropical Storm Erin have on Florida? What impact Erin will have on Florida and the eastern coast of the United States remains uncertain, but forecasters said "the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week continues to increase." How strong is Tropical Storm Erin and where could it go? See the scenarios At 8 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 55.2 West. Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph. This motion is expected to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph, with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles, mainly to the northeast of the center. Steady strengthening is expected during the next few days and Erin is forecast to become a hurricane later today, and it could become a major hurricane by this weekend. Have any watches or warnings been issued for Tropical Storm Erin? A tropical storm watch is in effect for: Anguilla and Barbuda St. Martin and St. Barthelemy Saba and St. Eustatius Sint Maarten Hazards affecting land from Tropical Storm Erin Rainfall: Tropical Storm Erin is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall beginning late Friday, Aug. 15, and continuing through the weekend across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to isolated flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides. Surf: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend, and will likely spread to the western Atlantic next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Erin Heavy rainfall across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico, may lead to isolated flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides this weekend into early next week. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect, beginning on Saturday as the core of Erin passes north of those islands. Tropical storm conditions could also occur in portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later in the weekend, and additional watches may be required later today. While there is still uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week, the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week continues to increase. Erin is expected to continue moving west-northwest into the weekend as it is steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. That ridge is expected to weaken early next week, turning Erin northwest and then north. Erin is in a favorable environment for strengthening, and it will likely intensify once the inner core becomes more organized. Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Erin get? At 5 a.m.: 70 mph 12 hours: 80 mph 24 hours: 90 mph 36 hours: 105 mph 48 hours: 115 mph 60 hours: 125 mph 72 hours: 130 mph 96 hours: 125 mph 120 hours: 120 mph Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past? Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text What's next? We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This story has been updated to include new information. This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Tropical Storm Erin strengthens See tracker, path, Jacksonville impact
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5 days ago
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Track Hurricane Erin path as it moves through Atlantic. Latest spaghetti models
Tropical Storm Erin has now officially become the season's first hurricane as it continues its westward push through the Atlantic, according to the National Hurricane Center. As of 8 a.m. Aug. 15, the storm was about 460 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands with sustained winds of 75 mph. It was moving west at 18 mph. The storm began a west-northwestward motion the evening of Aug. 14 and will continue that path through the weekend. The storm should gradually strengthen throughout Aug. 15 with more significant intensification Aug. 15 and 16. The hurricane is expected to pass near or north of the Leeward Islands on Aug. 16, the National Hurricane Center said. The storm is expected to intensify into a hurricane on Aug. 15 and possibly a major hurricane on Aug. 17. Will Hurricane Erin impact Delaware, East Coast? It's still too soon to tell, but as the storm turns west-northwest meteorologists will get a better idea of the storm's threat to the United States. At the very least, Delaware and the entire East Coast of the U.S. should prepare for dangerous surf and rip currents. What are the spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Erin? The models are projecting a hard turn for Erin and a path parallel to the East Coast. Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. What is a rip current? According to NOAA, rip currents are channeled currents of water that flow away from the shore out past the line of breaking waves. They form from water piling up between the breaking waves and the beach. As the water returns from the shore, it forms a narrow stream of water that moves quickly out to sea. What to do in a rip current According to the United States Lifesaving Association, swimmers should do the following: Relax, rip currents don't pull you under. Don't swim against the current. You may be able to escape by swimming out of the current in a direction following the shoreline, or toward breaking waves, then at an angle toward the beach. You may be able to escape by floating or treading water if the current circulates back toward shore. If you feel you will be unable to reach shore, draw attention to yourself. If you need help, yell and wave for assistance. When is hurricane season? Hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. However, hurricanes can occur before and after those dates. What are the categories for tropical cyclones and hurricanes? Tropical storm A tropical storm is a tropical cyclone with winds between 39 and 73 mph. These storms bring heavy rains that could lead to dangerous flooding. Category 1 A category 1 storm is the weakest of the hurricanes with winds between 74 and 95 mph. The storm will cause some flooding, but no real structural damage. Category 2 A category 2 storm has winds between 96 and 110 mph. The storm can cause moderate damage to buildings. Category 3 A category 3 storm will have winds from 111-129 mph. It can cause major damage to well-built framed homes, uproot trees and cause power and communication outages. Category 4 A category 4 storm can cause catastrophic damage to well-built framed homes, tearing off roofs and breaking exterior walls. Mobile homes are destroyed. Roads are impassible and there are communication and power outages. Category 5 A category 5 storm can cause catastrophic damage with most framed homes and mobile homes being destroyed. Trees will be snapped and uprooted. Roads will be impassible and there will be extended power and communication outages. Prepare now for hurricanes Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recommends. Get supplies to prepare for a hurricane at Lowes Develop an evacuation plan: If you are at risk from hurricanes, you need an evacuation plan. Now is the time to begin planning where you would go and how you would get there. Assemble disaster supplies: Whether you're evacuating or sheltering-in-place, you're going to need supplies not just to get through the storm but for the potentially lengthy aftermath, NOAA said. Get an insurance checkup and document your possessions: Contact your insurance company or agent now and ask for an insurance check-up to make sure you have enough insurance to repair or even replace your home and/or belongings. Remember, home and renters insurance doesn't cover flooding, so you'll need a separate policy for it. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent, or the National Flood Insurance Program. Act now, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period. Create a family communication plan: NOAA said to take the time now to write down your hurricane plan, and share it with your family. Determine family meeting places, and make sure to include an out-of-town location in case of evacuation. Strengthen your home: Now is the time to improve your home's ability to withstand hurricane impacts. Trim trees; install storm shutters, accordion shutters, and/or impact glass; seal outside wall openings. Doyle Rice contributed to this story. This article originally appeared on Delaware News Journal: Hurricane Erin path: The Latest spaghetti models
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5 days ago
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Rapid intensification? Hurricane forecasters say Erin's winds could skyrocket.
Tropical Storm Erin, now spinning far out in the central Atlantic Ocean, could undergo rapid intensification into a powerful 125-mph hurricane over the next few days, meteorologists said in an Aug. 14 advisory. This phenomenon can cause a tropical storm to escalate into a hurricane or a hurricane to jump one or more categories on the Saffir-Simpson scale in less than a day. An early Aug. 14 forecast from the National Hurricane Center said that Erin was forecast to undergo rapid intensification, but based on new data, a later forecast called for "steady" intensification over the next few days. "Erin is moving into an environment with very warm water temperatures, and it's not going to exit that environment for at least 5 or 6 days," said Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza in his Substack The Eyewall. "Erin should begin to tap into this environment over the next couple days, and it's possible that we see a burst of rapid intensification at some point." Regardless, the environment ahead looks ripe for Erin to become a powerful major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane this weekend, and the storm is forecast to be nearing Category 4 strength as it turns into the western Atlantic early next week, noted WPLG hurricane specialist Michael Lowry in an Aug. 14 Substack post. Though not currently thought to be direct threat to land, Erin's waves are forecast to batter the East Coast with high surf and the threat of dangerous rip currents for beachgoers. What is rapid intensification? Why is it dangerous? Rapid intensification is a process in which a storm undergoes accelerated growth: The phenomenon is typically defined to be a tropical cyclone (whether a tropical storm or hurricane) intensifying by at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period. As of the 11 a.m. ET advisory from the hurricane center, a rise of 30 mph in 24 hours is expected. Whatever happens with Erin, rapidly intensifying tropical storms and hurricanes are especially dangerous because they can give the public less time to prepare and often catch people off guard, AccuWeather said. "Predicting a storm's peak intensity and its intensity at landfall is one of the most difficult aspects of weather forecasting, and a rapidly intensifying hurricane adds tremendously to that challenge," according to AccuWeather. What causes rapid intensification? "Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical storm or hurricane encounters an extremely conducive environment," Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach said. "Typically, this environment consists of very warm water, low vertical wind shear and high levels of midlevel moisture." Such sudden spikes have been the hallmark of history's most fearsome hurricanes, Ken Graham, former director of the hurricane center and now director of the National Weather Service, told USA TODAY in 2022. Out of the nine hurricanes with winds of 150 mph or greater that struck the U.S. mainland over 103 years, all but one saw the explosion of force and power known as rapid intensification. What is the Saffir-Simpson scale? Hurricanes are measured by wind speed, with the higher categories on the Saffir-Simpson scale corresponding to more intense storms. Here's the full scale: Category / Sustained Winds: 1: 74-95 mph 2: 96-110 mph 3: 111-129 mph 4: 130-156 mph 5: 157 mph or higher This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane 'rapid intensification' worries return with Erin
