Starmer on a knife edge
Sky News' Sam Coates and Politico's Anne McElvoy serve up their essential guide to the day in British politics.
Its judgement day for the government's welfare bill and it's unclear from all sides whether the legislation will pass, despite billions of pounds worth of concessions from the prime minister to win over his backbench MPs.
The bill could lead to Sir Keir Starmer's largest rebellion so far, exactly one year on from the day that he came into power - leaving questions about his credibility and authority to govern.
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Leader Live
an hour ago
- Leader Live
Welfare U-turn raises questions over Labour's tax plans
The concessions, including the last-minute shelving of plans to restrict eligibility for personal independence payments (Pip), were enough to head off the Government's first Commons defeat on Tuesday evening. But they also removed a key plank of Sir Keir Starmer's welfare reform agenda, delaying changes to Pip until after a review of the benefit not due to conclude until autumn 2026. With no clarity on when the changes will be enacted or what they might entail, the Chancellor now faces a fiscal headache as a forecast £4.8 billion in welfare savings have been whittled away to nothing. Economists at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and Resolution Foundation think tanks warned that Tuesday's concessions meant Ms Reeves could now expect no 'net savings' by 2029/30 – a key year for meeting her fiscal targets. IFS deputy director Helen Miller said the move had effectively halved the Chancellor's 'margin of error' against her main fiscal rule, once again raising the possibility of tax rises in the autumn. On top of that, a stuttering economy and global instability could mean she has even less room for manoeuvre than expected. Ms Miller said: 'Since departmental spending plans are now effectively locked in, and the Government has already had to row back on planned cuts to pensioner benefits and working-age benefits, tax rises would look increasingly likely.' The Resolution Foundation's Ruth Curtice agreed that there would be no savings in 2029/30, but suggested changes to universal credit – almost the only part of the Government's proposals still standing – could save money in the longer term. On Wednesday morning, the Conservatives accused Labour of making billions in unfunded spending commitments, including both the U-turns on welfare and the partial reinstatement of winter fuel payments. In a letter to Ms Reeves, shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride demanded to know where the money was coming from, asking: 'Will you raise tax or increase borrowing?' Ministers have repeatedly insisted that Labour will not raise taxes on 'working people', specifically income tax, national insurance or VAT. But Ms Reeves also remains committed to her 'iron clad' fiscal rules, which require day-to-day spending to be covered by revenues – not borrowing – in 2029/30. Meanwhile, Sir Keir himself will face a grilling from MPs on Wednesday as he attempts to repair relations with his backbenchers. The weekly session of Prime Minister's Questions comes just a day after 49 of his own MPs voted against his welfare reforms – the biggest rebellion of his premiership so far – while several backbenchers described the Government's handling of the issue as 'chaotic' and 'a shambles'.
South Wales Guardian
an hour ago
- South Wales Guardian
Labour rebels offered 11th-hour concession over welfare reform
Changes to restrict eligibility for the personal independence payment (Pip) could be delayed until after a review of the key disability benefit instead of coming into force in November 2026 as planned. The latest concession follows a partial U-turn last week in the face of a possible defeat over the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill. The legislation faces its first Commons vote on Tuesday night and the 11th-hour concession on timing for the changes suggests the Labour hierarchy is still concerned about the scale of the revolt, which is set to be the largest of Sir Keir Starmer's premiership. Disability minister Sir Stephen Timms told MPs that the Government had listened to the concerns raised about the timing of the changes. The climbdown will cause a major headache for Chancellor Rachel Reeves as the welfare squeeze was originally meant to save £4.8 billion a year, which was subsequently reduced to £2.3 billion when the Bill was first watered down. Tuesday's changes leave any future savings uncertain as the scale of the squeeze on Pip is unclear. Sir Stephen's intervention, which came in the middle of debate on the legislation, followed frantic behind-the-scenes negotiations involving Cabinet ministers, Sir Keir himself and wavering Labour MPs. Some 39 Labour MPs have signed an amendment which would see the Bill fall at its first hurdle in the Commons. A previous effort to kill the Bill had attracted more than 120 Labour supporters, but was shelved after the first partial U-turn on the legislation last week, which restricted the Pip changes to new claimants from November 2026. That date has now been abandoned in the latest climbdown, with any changes now only coming after Sir Stephen's review of the Pip assessment process. Sir Stephen acknowledged 'concerns that the changes to Pip are coming ahead of the conclusions of the review of the assessment that I will be leading'. He said the Government would now 'only make changes to Pip eligibility activities and descriptors following that review', which is due to conclude in the autumn of 2026. The concession appeared to have won round some Labour doubters. Josh Fenton-Glynn, who was one of the 126 Labour MPs who signed the original rebel amendment to the welfare reform Bill last week, described the move as 'really good news'. He said he wanted to support the Government at 'every opportunity' and was glad changes to personal independence payment eligibility would be delayed until after the Timms review. But other Labour MPs appeared exasperated, with one telling the PA news agency that no-one 'knew what they were voting on anymore'. And rebel ringleader Rachael Maskell said she was determined to press for a vote on her 'reasoned amendment' which would halt the legislation in its tracks. 'The whole Bill is now unravelling and is a complete farce,' she said. This is an utter capitulation. Labour's welfare bill is now a TOTAL waste of time. It effectively saves £0, helps no one into work, and does NOT control spending. It's pointless. They should bin it, do their homework, and come back with something serious. Starmer cannot govern. — Kemi Badenoch (@KemiBadenoch) July 1, 2025 'What it won't do is stop the suffering of disabled people which is why we are determined to go ahead with the reasoned amendment and attempt to vote down the Bill at second reading.' Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch accused ministers of 'utter capitulation' and said the legislation was now 'pointless'. She said: 'They should bin it, do their homework, and come back with something serious. Starmer cannot govern.'
Telegraph
an hour ago
- Telegraph
Public confidence in BBC decision-making has been seriously shaken
SIR – I have just cancelled my television licence in protest at the BBC's appalling decision to broadcast footage from Glastonbury that included the chant, 'Death to the IDF' ('BBC boss at festival for rapper's hate chant', report, July 1). It beggars belief that no one at the BBC thought it necessary to cut the live transmission, which meant that the footage remained available for five hours afterwards. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that the language used was not considered a major problem until criticism began to mount. If this is so, it is astonishing, and speaks volumes about those in charge of both live programming and editorial review. I have taken my decision with regret. I believe in public-service broadcasting and the unique value that the BBC has brought to national life. But it has lost its way. Peter Ashcroft Sutton Coldfield SIR – When I was a BBC trainee many years ago, I spent six months as a director in Presentation. I was involved in monitoring and cueing up transmissions, including live material. Such material could be fed into transmission via a loop, allowing it to be monitored for a few seconds before going out to air. With quick decision-making by those ultimately responsible, transmission could be cut. I cannot believe the technology has been lost. Only the decision-making could have changed. I don't know which emotion I feel more strongly: outrage at what was allowed to happen at Glastonbury, or incredible sadness at the loss of the responsible and caring BBC I knew. Sarah Hellings Smith North Berwick, East Lothian SIR – I remember Glastonbury as a festival of love, but no longer. Its politics of the Left – which Michael Eavis tells us we must accept as festival-goers – have given rise to divisive language and created ill feeling towards other human beings, making a profit from the us-and-them mentality. Andrew Castle Stewart Glastonbury, Somerset SIR – It is welcome that the words of Bob Vylan at Glastonbury have been condemned, and the BBC's role strongly criticised. However, those young people supporting the duo's sentiments at the festival must be confused, since they have been seeing and hearing very similar words repeated in the streets for many months, with little apparent action by the police. The Government and the authorities need to be much clearer about what their position is on these issues. Fudging things, and simply hoping problems will go away, is a disastrous approach. It certainly won't encourage societal cohesion. Quite the opposite. Christina McLellan London N12
