MLB trade deadline: Using history to put a price tag on players about to move
New York Times5 days ago
It's the question that lingers in every comment section, on every talk-radio show, in every heated back-and-forth on social media. What's it actually going to take to acquire that high-end talent your team wants ahead of Thursday's trade deadline? Because no, the guy disappointing in Triple A and a 'middling prospect' ain't enough.
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To get a better sense of how some players on the trade block might be valued, I looked at their historical predecessors. Player X has produced at a roughly similar level to Player Y from a few years back; what did it take to acquire Player Y? I compare those players on their wins above replacement (according to FanGraphs) from this season through the All-Star break and their WAR going back two additional seasons beyond that. Typically, the comparisons will align players with similar long-term control.
Stats are updated through Sunday.
Contract status: Owed $1.1 million through the end of this season, then controlled via arbitration through 2027
2025 stats: 10-5, 2.82 ERA in 121 1/3 innings (21 games, 20 starts)
Comparison: 2017 Sonny Gray
Ryan is the rotation jewel of this deadline — an All-Star capable of taking the ball in Game 1 of a postseason series. Oh, and he comes with two more years of team control beyond this.
That's about where Gray was in 2017, when the Athletics traded him to the Yankees for Dustin Fowler, James Kaprielian and Jorge Mateo. Kaprielian and Mateo were consensus Top 100 prospects; Fowler was in the midst of a breakout season that would make him a Top 100 guy the following spring. That's a huge haul. Now, the comparison between Gray and Ryan isn't perfect: Gray's best seasons had been better than Ryan's to that point (with a third-place Cy Young finish in 2015), and in his playoff debut in 2013, he'd memorably outdueled Justin Verlander. On the other hand, Gray had really struggled in 2016, in a way Ryan hasn't in recent years.
Contract status: Owed $4.8 million through the end of this season, then a free agent
2025 stats: .247/.319/.579/.898, 36 HR, 87 RBI in 104 games
Comparison: 2021 Starling Marte
Marte was a 32-year-old having what would become, by WAR, his best season ever when he was traded from Miami to Oakland for Jesús Luzardo. Suárez is a 34-year-old on pace for his best season ever, and bringing back a young, controllable pitcher like Luzardo might just be Arizona's dream scenario for this week.
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Luzardo had been a consensus Top 10 prospect in the sport entering 2020, and he'd backed it up with a solid rookie season in that abbreviated campaign. He had lost some luster in '21 with an ERA over six in both the majors and minors. Still, at the time this was considered an unusually high price to pay for a veteran rental.
Contract status: Owed $1.3 million through the end of this season, then controlled via arbitration through 2027
2025 stats: 1.86 ERA, 16 saves with 52 strikeouts and 16 walks in 48 1/3 innings
Comparison: 2018 Brad Hand
Hand was in the second of three straight All-Star appearances when the Padres traded him and righty Adam Cimber to Cleveland in exchange for catcher Francisco Mejía — at the time one of the game's top prospects. Duran has been a bit better this season than Hand had been in 2018, but their production over the 2 1/2 seasons leading into the deadline had been roughly similar (3.9 WAR for Hand, 3.6 for Duran). Both closers came with two years of additional team control.
Given the depth of their bullpen, the Twins could attempt the same kind of trade, packaging Duran and a lesser reliever — say, Danny Coulombe or Brock Stewart — to bring back one excellent prospect. Although he never fulfilled his potential, Mejía at the time of the trade was a consensus Top 20 prospect in the game playing at Triple A.
Contract status: Owed $750,000 through the end of this season, then controlled via arbitration through 2027
2025 stats: 4.00 ERA with 70 strikeouts and 13 walks in 45 innings
Comparison: 2016 Andrew Miller
Jax isn't quite to Miller's level. The righty compiled 1.4 WAR in the first half of this season and 5.3 WAR dating back to the start of 2023; Miller was at 1.9 and 6.1 respectively, when the Yankees dealt him to Cleveland for Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, Ben Heller and J.P. Feyereisen. Still, Jax has probably been better than most baseball fans realized, and that Miller package (which also brought back two added years of control for the reliever) was huge. Frazier was a consensus Top 50 prospect, Sheffield a Top 100 prospect in multiple publications, and Heller and Feyereisen both ended up as big-league relievers.
Using that as a starting point, Jax could bring back one Top 100 prospect, one potential Top 100 prospect and a third useful piece.
Contract status: Owed $4.3 million through the end of this season, then a free agent
2025 stats: 7-12, 5.60 ERA in 127 innings (22 starts)
Comparison: 2014 Jake Peavy
When Peavy was moved for the second consecutive deadline to the eventual World Series champions, this time from Boston to San Francisco, he was four years older than Gallen is now and the fade of his stuff had been more gradual. But both pitchers were having essentially replacement-level seasons, and an acquiring team is counting on a return to prior form.
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In exchange for Peavy, the Red Sox received lefty starter Edwin Escobar and righty reliever Heath Hembree. Escobar had been a Top 100 prospect entering the season but was having a rough year at Triple A. Hembree profiled as a potential late-game reliever; he had racked up more than 100 professional saves by the time he was 25 in Triple A.
Gallen's relative youth and his better recent track record probably render that deal the floor for the right-hander. Remember, Arizona is likely to extend Gallen a qualifying offer this winter; if the pitcher declines and signs for more than $50 million elsewhere, the Diamondbacks would be in position to receive a compensatory draft pick after the first round, in the range of No. 35.
Contract status: Owed $2.2 million through the end of this season, then a free agent
2025 stats: 9-6, 3.22 ERA in 128 2/3 innings (22 starts)
Comparison: 2018 J.A. Happ
If you've read enough of my deadline-oriented stuff, you know my affinity for Happ, a pitcher moved five times in July and who was a standout veteran acquisition seemingly every year. Happ was 35 and coming off the lone All-Star appearance of his career when he went from Toronto to the Yankees in 2018; he'd been worth 2.0 WAR the first half of that season and 7.7 over the prior 2 1/2 seasons. Kelly is 36 and has been worth 1.7 WAR this season and 5.9 going back to the start of 2023.
So the Yankees' offer for Happ — a struggling young player with an established track record in Brandon Drury and a former top prospect in Billy McKinney — would represent the higher end of the spectrum for Kelly. Given Kelly's age, he's not a slam dunk to sign a deal for at least $50 million this winter, so the calculation around a qualifying offer and compensatory draft pick for him is different for the Diamondbacks than it is for Gallen. If Kelly declines a qualifying offer and signs for less than $50 million, Arizona would get a draft pick in the range of No. 75.
Contract status: Owed $4.8 million through the end of this season, then under contract for $54.5 million through 2028
2025 stats: 4-10, 3.53 ERA in 125 innings (21 starts)
Comparison: 2018 Chris Archer
I'm sorry, Pittsburgh, I swear I didn't mean it, it's just how the comparison worked out! But I do understand it's cruel to bring back this trade in particular, seven years after the Pirates dealt Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz to Tampa Bay for Archer.
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Not many pitchers with three more years of team control are moved at the deadline; Archer and Jose Quintana (in 2017) are the two that stick out. While Keller hasn't been as good as Quintana was with the White Sox, he matches up well with Archer. Archer had been worth 1.8 WAR in that 2018 season and 9.2 WAR for the previous 2 1/2 seasons; Keller is at 2.6 and 8.1, respectively. Archer was owed about $27 million for the subsequent three seasons (if all club options were picked up); Keller is due twice that at $54.5 million, and all of it guaranteed.
That financial difference should lower Keller's value just below that of Archer. Think two young impact players (probably on the offensive side for Pittsburgh) rather than three.
Contract status: Owed $6.4 million through the end of this season, then under control for $17 million in 2026 with a club option for $21 million ($2 million buyout) for 2027
2025 stats: 5-9, 6.66 ERA in 104 innings (20 starts)
Comparison: 2018 Cole Hamels
This was not the Cole Hamels trade, which happened in 2015 when he went from Philadelphia to Texas. This is when the Rangers dealt a 34-year-old Hamels with a league-average ERA (and a mark over 10 in his previous five starts) to the Cubs for a package headlined by former Top 100 prospect Eddie Butler. By then, Butler was 27 and had been decent in an extended look in Chicago's rotation in 2017. Rollie Lacy and Alexander Ovalles were more lottery tickers. (The Rangers also sent cash to Chicago and agreed to cover a $6 million buyout after the season; the Cubs ended up picking up Hamels' option.)
It's not a perfect match for Alcantara, who's still just 29 years old. But as Chicago did with Hamels, an acquiring team has to believe there's something better in the right-hander to make a move.
Given Alcantara's additional years of control, the Hamels package probably would not tempt Miami to move the pitcher, who could potentially recoup value down the stretch or into next season.
Contract status: Owed $3.3 million through the end of this season, with $11.5 million club option ($500,000 buyout) for 2026
2025 stats: .269/.320/.480/.800 with 19 HR, 50 RBI in 86 games
Comparison: 2021 Adam Frazier
While Frazier was in the midst of his best-ever season when he was dealt in 2021 (2.8 WAR as an All-Star), Lowe has been a more consistent year-to-year performer. Like Frazier, Lowe would come with one more year of team control.
San Diego sent Tucupita Marcano (having just debuted in the majors and in the midst of a solid Triple A season), Jack Suwinski (breaking out in Double A) and Michell Miliano (a 21-year-old pitcher who struck out and walked just about everybody) for Frazier.
Contract status: Owed $1.3 million through the end of this season, then controlled via arbitration through 2027
2025 Stats: .285/.350/.411/.761 with 9 HR, 37 RBI, 11 SB in 99 games
Comparison: 2024 Randy Arozarena
Kwan's overall numbers are better than those for Arozarena, who had struggled mightily out of the gates in 2024 with the Rays. Kwan's WAR since the start of 2023 is 9.4; Arozarena's sample for the 2 1/2 years leading into his trade was just 6.5 WAR. That said, Arozarena's playoff heroics, most notably in 2020, raised his value beyond those numbers.
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All that means the Mariners' deal for Arozarena, which cost them two players having breakout minor-league campaigns in Brody Hopkins (a Top 100 prospect this season) and Aidan Smith, is probably the floor for what the Cleveland Grind Machine wants back for Kwan.
(Illustration of Eugenio Suarez, Sandy Alcantara and Griffin Jax: Will Tullos / The Athletic; Photos: Carmen Mandato, Brace Hemmelgarn, Norm Hall / Getty Images)
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To get a better sense of how some players on the trade block might be valued, I looked at their historical predecessors. Player X has produced at a roughly similar level to Player Y from a few years back; what did it take to acquire Player Y? I compare those players on their wins above replacement (according to FanGraphs) from this season through the All-Star break and their WAR going back two additional seasons beyond that. Typically, the comparisons will align players with similar long-term control.
Stats are updated through Sunday.
Contract status: Owed $1.1 million through the end of this season, then controlled via arbitration through 2027
2025 stats: 10-5, 2.82 ERA in 121 1/3 innings (21 games, 20 starts)
Comparison: 2017 Sonny Gray
Ryan is the rotation jewel of this deadline — an All-Star capable of taking the ball in Game 1 of a postseason series. Oh, and he comes with two more years of team control beyond this.
That's about where Gray was in 2017, when the Athletics traded him to the Yankees for Dustin Fowler, James Kaprielian and Jorge Mateo. Kaprielian and Mateo were consensus Top 100 prospects; Fowler was in the midst of a breakout season that would make him a Top 100 guy the following spring. That's a huge haul. Now, the comparison between Gray and Ryan isn't perfect: Gray's best seasons had been better than Ryan's to that point (with a third-place Cy Young finish in 2015), and in his playoff debut in 2013, he'd memorably outdueled Justin Verlander. On the other hand, Gray had really struggled in 2016, in a way Ryan hasn't in recent years.
Contract status: Owed $4.8 million through the end of this season, then a free agent
2025 stats: .247/.319/.579/.898, 36 HR, 87 RBI in 104 games
Comparison: 2021 Starling Marte
Marte was a 32-year-old having what would become, by WAR, his best season ever when he was traded from Miami to Oakland for Jesús Luzardo. Suárez is a 34-year-old on pace for his best season ever, and bringing back a young, controllable pitcher like Luzardo might just be Arizona's dream scenario for this week.
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Luzardo had been a consensus Top 10 prospect in the sport entering 2020, and he'd backed it up with a solid rookie season in that abbreviated campaign. He had lost some luster in '21 with an ERA over six in both the majors and minors. Still, at the time this was considered an unusually high price to pay for a veteran rental.
Contract status: Owed $1.3 million through the end of this season, then controlled via arbitration through 2027
2025 stats: 1.86 ERA, 16 saves with 52 strikeouts and 16 walks in 48 1/3 innings
Comparison: 2018 Brad Hand
Hand was in the second of three straight All-Star appearances when the Padres traded him and righty Adam Cimber to Cleveland in exchange for catcher Francisco Mejía — at the time one of the game's top prospects. Duran has been a bit better this season than Hand had been in 2018, but their production over the 2 1/2 seasons leading into the deadline had been roughly similar (3.9 WAR for Hand, 3.6 for Duran). Both closers came with two years of additional team control.
Given the depth of their bullpen, the Twins could attempt the same kind of trade, packaging Duran and a lesser reliever — say, Danny Coulombe or Brock Stewart — to bring back one excellent prospect. Although he never fulfilled his potential, Mejía at the time of the trade was a consensus Top 20 prospect in the game playing at Triple A.
Contract status: Owed $750,000 through the end of this season, then controlled via arbitration through 2027
2025 stats: 4.00 ERA with 70 strikeouts and 13 walks in 45 innings
Comparison: 2016 Andrew Miller
Jax isn't quite to Miller's level. The righty compiled 1.4 WAR in the first half of this season and 5.3 WAR dating back to the start of 2023; Miller was at 1.9 and 6.1 respectively, when the Yankees dealt him to Cleveland for Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, Ben Heller and J.P. Feyereisen. Still, Jax has probably been better than most baseball fans realized, and that Miller package (which also brought back two added years of control for the reliever) was huge. Frazier was a consensus Top 50 prospect, Sheffield a Top 100 prospect in multiple publications, and Heller and Feyereisen both ended up as big-league relievers.
Using that as a starting point, Jax could bring back one Top 100 prospect, one potential Top 100 prospect and a third useful piece.
Contract status: Owed $4.3 million through the end of this season, then a free agent
2025 stats: 7-12, 5.60 ERA in 127 innings (22 starts)
Comparison: 2014 Jake Peavy
When Peavy was moved for the second consecutive deadline to the eventual World Series champions, this time from Boston to San Francisco, he was four years older than Gallen is now and the fade of his stuff had been more gradual. But both pitchers were having essentially replacement-level seasons, and an acquiring team is counting on a return to prior form.
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In exchange for Peavy, the Red Sox received lefty starter Edwin Escobar and righty reliever Heath Hembree. Escobar had been a Top 100 prospect entering the season but was having a rough year at Triple A. Hembree profiled as a potential late-game reliever; he had racked up more than 100 professional saves by the time he was 25 in Triple A.
Gallen's relative youth and his better recent track record probably render that deal the floor for the right-hander. Remember, Arizona is likely to extend Gallen a qualifying offer this winter; if the pitcher declines and signs for more than $50 million elsewhere, the Diamondbacks would be in position to receive a compensatory draft pick after the first round, in the range of No. 35.
Contract status: Owed $2.2 million through the end of this season, then a free agent
2025 stats: 9-6, 3.22 ERA in 128 2/3 innings (22 starts)
Comparison: 2018 J.A. Happ
If you've read enough of my deadline-oriented stuff, you know my affinity for Happ, a pitcher moved five times in July and who was a standout veteran acquisition seemingly every year. Happ was 35 and coming off the lone All-Star appearance of his career when he went from Toronto to the Yankees in 2018; he'd been worth 2.0 WAR the first half of that season and 7.7 over the prior 2 1/2 seasons. Kelly is 36 and has been worth 1.7 WAR this season and 5.9 going back to the start of 2023.
So the Yankees' offer for Happ — a struggling young player with an established track record in Brandon Drury and a former top prospect in Billy McKinney — would represent the higher end of the spectrum for Kelly. Given Kelly's age, he's not a slam dunk to sign a deal for at least $50 million this winter, so the calculation around a qualifying offer and compensatory draft pick for him is different for the Diamondbacks than it is for Gallen. If Kelly declines a qualifying offer and signs for less than $50 million, Arizona would get a draft pick in the range of No. 75.
Contract status: Owed $4.8 million through the end of this season, then under contract for $54.5 million through 2028
2025 stats: 4-10, 3.53 ERA in 125 innings (21 starts)
Comparison: 2018 Chris Archer
I'm sorry, Pittsburgh, I swear I didn't mean it, it's just how the comparison worked out! But I do understand it's cruel to bring back this trade in particular, seven years after the Pirates dealt Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz to Tampa Bay for Archer.
Advertisement
Not many pitchers with three more years of team control are moved at the deadline; Archer and Jose Quintana (in 2017) are the two that stick out. While Keller hasn't been as good as Quintana was with the White Sox, he matches up well with Archer. Archer had been worth 1.8 WAR in that 2018 season and 9.2 WAR for the previous 2 1/2 seasons; Keller is at 2.6 and 8.1, respectively. Archer was owed about $27 million for the subsequent three seasons (if all club options were picked up); Keller is due twice that at $54.5 million, and all of it guaranteed.
That financial difference should lower Keller's value just below that of Archer. Think two young impact players (probably on the offensive side for Pittsburgh) rather than three.
Contract status: Owed $6.4 million through the end of this season, then under control for $17 million in 2026 with a club option for $21 million ($2 million buyout) for 2027
2025 stats: 5-9, 6.66 ERA in 104 innings (20 starts)
Comparison: 2018 Cole Hamels
This was not the Cole Hamels trade, which happened in 2015 when he went from Philadelphia to Texas. This is when the Rangers dealt a 34-year-old Hamels with a league-average ERA (and a mark over 10 in his previous five starts) to the Cubs for a package headlined by former Top 100 prospect Eddie Butler. By then, Butler was 27 and had been decent in an extended look in Chicago's rotation in 2017. Rollie Lacy and Alexander Ovalles were more lottery tickers. (The Rangers also sent cash to Chicago and agreed to cover a $6 million buyout after the season; the Cubs ended up picking up Hamels' option.)
It's not a perfect match for Alcantara, who's still just 29 years old. But as Chicago did with Hamels, an acquiring team has to believe there's something better in the right-hander to make a move.
Given Alcantara's additional years of control, the Hamels package probably would not tempt Miami to move the pitcher, who could potentially recoup value down the stretch or into next season.
Contract status: Owed $3.3 million through the end of this season, with $11.5 million club option ($500,000 buyout) for 2026
2025 stats: .269/.320/.480/.800 with 19 HR, 50 RBI in 86 games
Comparison: 2021 Adam Frazier
While Frazier was in the midst of his best-ever season when he was dealt in 2021 (2.8 WAR as an All-Star), Lowe has been a more consistent year-to-year performer. Like Frazier, Lowe would come with one more year of team control.
San Diego sent Tucupita Marcano (having just debuted in the majors and in the midst of a solid Triple A season), Jack Suwinski (breaking out in Double A) and Michell Miliano (a 21-year-old pitcher who struck out and walked just about everybody) for Frazier.
Contract status: Owed $1.3 million through the end of this season, then controlled via arbitration through 2027
2025 Stats: .285/.350/.411/.761 with 9 HR, 37 RBI, 11 SB in 99 games
Comparison: 2024 Randy Arozarena
Kwan's overall numbers are better than those for Arozarena, who had struggled mightily out of the gates in 2024 with the Rays. Kwan's WAR since the start of 2023 is 9.4; Arozarena's sample for the 2 1/2 years leading into his trade was just 6.5 WAR. That said, Arozarena's playoff heroics, most notably in 2020, raised his value beyond those numbers.
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All that means the Mariners' deal for Arozarena, which cost them two players having breakout minor-league campaigns in Brody Hopkins (a Top 100 prospect this season) and Aidan Smith, is probably the floor for what the Cleveland Grind Machine wants back for Kwan.
(Illustration of Eugenio Suarez, Sandy Alcantara and Griffin Jax: Will Tullos / The Athletic; Photos: Carmen Mandato, Brace Hemmelgarn, Norm Hall / Getty Images)
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