Many Colleges May Close Without Immigrants And International Students
America's demographic problems portend hardship for U.S. colleges and universities and the communities surrounding them. That means their future may rest on whether U.S. policymakers adopt welcoming immigration policies or Trump officials follow through on an anti-immigration agenda. The Trump administration has adopted what educators see as aggressive measures against international students, including compelling Columbia University to reduce its 'dependence' on international students. The administration has also set a goal of deporting one million or more immigrants.
'Without immigrants, international students and the children of immigrants, the undergraduate student population in America would be almost 5 million students smaller in 2037 than 2022, or about two-thirds of its current size, while the graduate student population would be at least 1.1 million students smaller, or only about 60% of its current size,' according to a National Foundation for American Policy report.
The study's author, Madeline Zavodny, a professor of Economics at the University of North Florida in Jacksonville, explains that foreign-born students are vital because of demographics.
'U.S. colleges and universities face a looming demographic cliff. Due to the post-2007 drop in birth rates, the number of U.S.-born traditional college-age young adults is expected to start dropping in 2025,' writes Zavodny, who was an economist in the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Falling Enrollment Shows Need For Immigrants And International Students
The U.S.-born college-going population could fall by 15% between 2025 and 2029. According to the analysis, total enrollment at U.S. higher education institutions peaked in 2010-11 and then declined, while the share of U.S. young adults enrolled in college has dropped.
The study finds, 'Losing up to one-third of undergraduate enrollment and almost two-fifths of graduate enrollment would be catastrophic for many colleges and universities, especially those in parts of the United States already experiencing demographic declines. It would likely lead to many colleges and universities closing, resulting in fewer educational opportunities for U.S. students, fewer higher education-related jobs in many states and towns and fewer college-educated workers in the United States.'
The universities likely to close are not Yale and Columbia but lower and mid-tier schools. 'Regional universities and small liberal arts colleges, especially those in rural areas, face the biggest challenges,' said Zavodny. U.S. and international students will hope to attend well-known universities.
"Smaller, less well-known colleges and universities will find it harder to attract students, particularly if admissions rates at larger, more well-known schools rise,' she said. 'Regional universities will find it particularly hard to recruit international graduate students if those students can attend larger universities that have more resources for research and lead to better job opportunities after they complete their degrees.'
Financial Problems For U.S. Schools Needing More Immigrants And International Students
Many U.S. schools already have financial problems. The Washington Times reported that in 2023, public colleges 'experienced their sharpest annual decline in tuition revenue since 1980, driven partly by plunging enrollment.' According to the newspaper, 'Dozens of regional and private colleges have eliminated jobs and programs this summer to close budget gaps as enrollment and tuition revenues shrink heading into the fall semester.' In 2023, West Virginia University closed 28 academic programs and 'eliminated 143 faculty positions, including its department of world languages, literatures, and linguistics,' reported the Chronicle of Higher Education.
The research highlights the importance of the U.S.-born children of immigrants to U.S. colleges and universities. The second generation accounts for about one in four undergraduate students in the United States, and approximately one in seven graduate students. 'Many colleges and universities rely not just on international students wanting to come to America but also immigrants and their families wanting to stay in the United States,' said Zavodny.
In 2025, the State Department rocked university campuses by contacting international students and ordering them to leave the United States for minor infractions and without the opportunity to respond to allegations. Lawsuits around the country stopped deportations, resulting in the Trump officials agreeing not to terminate the records of those students or their status. NAFSA: Association of International Educators expects the Trump administration's travel ban on nationals of 19 countries, visa interview suspension and limited appointment availability to result in a potential decline of 30% to 40% in new international student enrollment in the fall of 2025.
The NFAP report points to the importance of visa policies that enable international students to study in the United States and policies that will allow international students to remain in America to work after graduation. The Optional Practical Training program is popular among international students and employers. It allows students to work for 12 months, typically after graduation, to gain practical training in their chosen career. STEM OPT can be extended for 24 months in a science, technology or math field.
The new USCIS director said during his confirmation hearing that he hopes to eliminate the ability of international students to work after graduation on OPT and STEM OPT. A Trump administration rule will likely make it more difficult for international students to gain H-1B status. Another rule will require international students to gain extensions if they wish to remain in the United States beyond fixed admission periods.
The report notes that policymakers concerned about the price of higher education should welcome international students since they typically subsidize the tuition of U.S. students. Legal immigration restrictions, including policies affecting international students, could adversely affect Americans and the university communities many lawmakers view as vital to their states, districts and constituents.
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