Forecasters hand-wring over tariffs, but the economy's still doing fine
Why it matters: A trade war-stunted economy remains something forecasters hand-wring about, but it's not the reality on the ground.
Economic activity wrapped the second quarter on stronger footing, with consumers spending plenty after a tariff front-loading shopping spree earlier this year.
It doesn't look like an economic boom time, but it's also not the stagnation that looked possible just months earlier.
Driving the news: Retail sales, which aren't adjusted for inflation, rose by 0.6% in June — more than double the increase that economists anticipated.
That came after a sharp pullback in May, when retail sales fell by nearly a full percentage point. It raised fears about a heightened sense of caution among consumers.
Spending increased in all but three categories: department stores, furniture retailers and electronics stores. Sales at gasoline stations were flat.
Miscellaneous retailers (a group that includes florists, pet supply stores and more), auto dealerships and home improvement stores saw the biggest increase in sales.
What they're saying:"Delayed tariff price increases and steady income growth continue to fuel spending despite weak survey data indicating building concerns by households," Nationwide senior economist Ben Ayers wrote in a note.
"The strong June for retail sales should support a solid rebound for real GDP growth in the second quarter," Ayers added — but warned that "tariff uncertainty hangs over the outlook."
Zoom out: The data follows further confirmation that aggregate layoffs remain low, after a spike in filings earlier this year that stoked concern about weaker labor market trends.
Filings for unemployment benefits fell by 7,000 last week to 221,000, the fifth straight week of declines.
Survey results from the Philadelphia Fed district — including Delaware and parts of New Jersey and Pennsylvania — showed manufacturers anticipate more hiring and growth over the next six months.
The intrigue: The Atlanta Fed GDPNow reading shows 2.6% growth in the second quarter, helped by normalizing imports after a first-quarter rush.
Reality check: The economy is not out of the woods, especially as continued trade tensions threaten higher prices for consumers.
The Philadelphia Fed survey showed forecasts for stronger activity came alongside expectations of higher prices paid and received.
Import prices for consumer goods rose 0.4% in June, the largest one-month increase in over a year. That is before the tariff effect, for which the data does not account.
Continued unemployment filings — that is, those collecting benefits for multiple weeks — rose to 1.96 million in early July, ticking up from the previous week, pointing to sluggish hiring for those who do lose their jobs.
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