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Business Standard
18-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Dollar index pulls back mildly; set for third straight weekly gain
The dollar index pulled back on Friday morning in Asia following a sharp spike to 3 and half week high in the previous session. Gains in the global reserve currency came on the back of firm US data which supported the Federal Reserves (Fed) stance to hold rates unchanged. US retail sales rose 0.6% on month in June, well above the 0.1% forecast, rebounding from Mays sharp 0.9% drop. Core retail sales, which exclude autos and gas, also climbed 0.5%, up from 0.2% previously. Initial jobless claims fell to 221,000 last week, below the expected 235,000, signaling ongoing tightness in the labor market. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index surprised to the upside, surging to 15.9 in July from -4.0 in June, far exceeding market expectations of -1. Meanwhile, on Thursday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly called two rate cuts this year a "reasonable" outlook, while warning against waiting too long. Fed Governor Christopher Waller also said the Fed should cut interest rates 25 basis points at the July meeting. However, FOMC Governor Adriana Kugler noted that it is appropriate to keep the policy rate of interest steady for some time, given low unemployment and building price pressure from tariffs. The dollar index that measures the greenback against a basket of currencies is quoting at 98.24, down 0.22% on the day but is all set for a third straight weekly gain. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Building Permits, and Housing Starts are due later in the day.
Yahoo
17-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Solid US Economic News Lifts the Dollar
The dollar index (DXY00) on Thursday rose by +0.29% and posted a 3.5-week high. Signs of strength in the US economy may keep the Fed from cutting interest rates and are supportive of the dollar. Weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell to a 3-month low, June retail sales rose more than expected, and the July Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose to a 5-month high. The dollar added to its gains Thursday after Fed Governor Kugler said it's appropriate for the Fed to hold rates steady for "some time." However, the dollar fell back from its best levels on dovish comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who said she expects two 25 bp rate cuts this year. US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -7,000 to a 3-month low of 221,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 233,000. More News from Barchart Gold and Silver Are Grinding Sideways. Here's What Could Change That, and When It Might Happen. Dollar Rallies to 3-week High Dollar Falls Back on Apparent Trial Balloon for Firing Fed Chair Powell Markets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines. US June retail sales rose +0.6% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m, and Jun retail sales ex-autos rose +0.5% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m. The US June import price index ex-petroleum was unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m. The US July Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose +19.9 to a 5-month high of 15.9, stronger than expectations of -1.0. The US July NAHB housing market index rose +1 to 33, right on expectations. Fed Governor Kugler said the Fed should keep interest rates on hold "for some time," citing the acceleration of inflation as tariffs begin to boost prices. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the most recent set of rate projections from Fed officials, issued in June, offered a "reasonable outlook" in pointing to two 25 bp rate cuts by year's end. She added that the Fed should not wait too long before moving on rates, because if they wait until inflation is 2%, they've "likely injured the economy in some way that was completely unnecessary." On the trade front, President Trump said late Wednesday that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries notifying them their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1, and that the group was "not big countries who don't do that much business with the US." Also, Commerce Secretary Lutnick said Nvidia could soon resume sales of its less advanced H20 chips to China, and Advanced Micro Devices received similar assurances from the Commerce Department, in a sign that the US may be in the process of negotiating a grand trade deal with China. Treasury Secretary Bessent is expected to meet his Chinese counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng, within "the next couple of weeks" and signaled the US will likely extend an August 12 deadline for the easing of sky-high tariffs. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 3% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 58% at the following meeting on September 16-17. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) Thursday fell by -0.40% and posted a 3.5-week low. The dollar's strength on Thursday undercut the euro. The euro also came under pressure on comments from Italian Deputy Premier Tajani, who said the euro is "too strong and the ECB needs to cut interest rates "to weaken the euro. Swaps are pricing in a 1% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) Thursday rose by +0.51%. The yen is under pressure due to concern that Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could lose its majority in Sunday's upper house election. The promises by Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party of cash handouts to voters and promises of lower taxes by the opposition have sparked concerns of fiscal deterioration, which are bearish for the yen. The yen extended its losses after T-note yields rose. Japanese trade news is mixed for the yen. On the negative side, Japan's June exports unexpectedly fell -0.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.5% y/y. Conversely, June imports unexpectedly rose +0.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of -1.1% y/y. August gold (GCQ25) Thursday closed down -13.80 (-0.41%), and September silver (SIU25) closed up +0.184 (+0.48%). Precious metals on Thursday settled mixed, with the price of gold sliding to a 1.5-week low. Thursday's rally in the dollar index to a 3.5-week high was bearish for metals. Also, strength in stocks on Thursday has curbed safe-haven demand for precious metals. In addition, precious metals came under pressure after President Trump said he's "not planning on doing anything" to remove Fed Chair Powell. Finally, hawkish comments Thursday from Fed Governor Kugler undercut precious metals when she said the Fed should keep interest rates on hold "for some time." Precious metals recovered from their worst levels Thursday, with silver moving into positive territory when San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said recent Fed rate projections offered a "reasonable outlook" in pointing to two 25 bp rate cuts by year's end. Precious metals also receive safe-haven support from global trade tensions, following President Trump's announcement that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries, notifying them that their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1. In addition, fund buying of gold continues to support prices after the amount of gold in ETFs rose to a nearly 2-year high on Wednesday. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
17-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Crude Oil Prices Jump on Signs of a Tightening Supply Outlook
August WTI crude oil (CLQ25) Thursday closed up +1.16 (+1.75%), and August RBOB gasoline (RBQ25) closed up +0.0264 (+1.23%). Crude oil prices rallied Thursday on concerns about tighter global oil supplies after Iraq said it has lost about 200,000 bpd of crude production due to drone attacks on several oil fields in Kurdistan. Also, signs of strength in the US economy are positive for energy demand and crude prices on Thursday's better-than-expected US economic reports. Gains in crude were limited due to Thursday's rally in the dollar index (DXY00) to a 3.5-week high. More News from Barchart Nat-Gas Prices Continue Higher on Hot US Weather Forecasts Crude Oil Prices Fall Due to a Focus on Oil Surplus Crude Oil Prices Fall Due to a Focus on Oil Surplus Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! Signs of strength in the US economy are bullish for energy demand and crude prices. Weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -7,000 to a 3-month low of 221,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 233,000. Also, Jun retail sales rose +0.6% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m. In addition, the July Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose +19.9 to a 5-month high of 15.9, stronger than expectations of -1.0. Limiting gains in crude is the outlook for Iraq to boost crude exports from its northern Kurdish region through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, where oil exports have been halted since March 2023. The Iraqi government approved a plan for the semi-autonomous Kurdish region to resume oil exports. Kurdistan expects to supply Iraq's crude market with 230,000 bpd of crude once exports resume. Iraq is OPEC's second-biggest oil producer. Concern about a global oil glut is negative for crude prices. On July 5, OPEC+ agreed to raise its crude production by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) beginning August 1, exceeding expectations of a 411,000 bpd increase. Saudi Arabia also stated that additional similar-sized increases in crude output could follow, which is viewed as a strategy to reduce oil prices and penalize overproducing OPEC+ members, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq. OPEC+ is boosting output to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd of production by September 2026. On May 31, OPEC+ agreed to a 411,000 bpd increase in crude production for July, following the same 411,000 bpd hike for June. June crude production rose +360,000 bpd to a 1.5-year high of 28.10 million bpd. In a supportive factor for oil prices, Bloomberg reported last Thursday that OPEC+ is discussing a pause in further production increases from October, following its next monthly hike in September of 548,000 barrels. OPEC+ may be concerned about a slowdown in global oil demand in the second half of this year that could lead to a supply glut if the group keeps boosting production. The International Energy Agency said inventories have been accumulating at a rate of 1 million bpd and that the global crude oil market faces a surplus by Q4-2025 equivalent to 1.5% of global crude consumption. A decrease in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -4.6% w/w to 78.03 million bbl in the week ended July 11. Wednesday's weekly EIA report showed that US crude inventories in the week ended July 11 fell by -3.859 million bbls, the first draw in three weeks. Gasoline inventories rose +3.399 million bbls, and distillate inventories rose by +4.173 million bbls. The EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 11 were -8.0% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -0.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -21.1% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending July 11 fell -0.1% w/w to 13.375 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd posted in the week of 12/6/2024. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ending July 11 decreased by -1 rig to a new 3.75-year low of 424 rigs. Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.25-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Yahoo
17-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Crude Oil Prices Climb on Supply Disruptions in Iraq
August WTI crude oil (CLQ25) today is up +0.80 (+1.21%), and August RBOB gasoline (RBQ25) is up +0.0156 (+0.73%). Crude oil prices are moving higher today on concerns about smaller global oil supplies after Iraq said it has lost about 200,000 bpd of crude production due to drone attacks on several oil fields in Kurdistan. Also, signs of strength in the US economy are positive for energy demand and crude prices on today's better-than-expected US economic reports. Gains in crude are limited due to today's rally in the dollar index (DXY00) to a 3.5-week high. More News from Barchart Nat-Gas Prices Continue Higher on Hot US Weather Forecasts Crude Oil Prices Fall Due to a Focus on Oil Surplus Crude Oil Prices Fall Due to a Focus on Oil Surplus Markets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines. Signs of strength in the US economy are bullish for energy demand and crude prices. Weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -7,000 to a 3-month low of 221,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 233,000. Also, Jun retail sales rose +0.6% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m. In addition, the July Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose +19.9 to a 5-month high of 15.9, stronger than expectations of -1.0. Limiting gains in crude is the outlook for Iraq to boost crude exports from its northern Kurdish region through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, where oil exports have been halted since March 2023. The Iraqi government approved a plan for the semi-autonomous Kurdish region to resume oil exports. Kurdistan expects to supply Iraq's crude market with 230,000 bpd of crude once exports resume. Iraq is OPEC's second-biggest oil producer. Concern about a global oil glut is negative for crude prices. On July 5, OPEC+ agreed to raise its crude production by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) beginning August 1, exceeding expectations of a 411,000 bpd increase. Saudi Arabia also stated that additional similar-sized increases in crude output could follow, which is viewed as a strategy to reduce oil prices and penalize overproducing OPEC+ members, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq. OPEC+ is boosting output to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd of production by September 2026. On May 31, OPEC+ agreed to a 411,000 bpd increase in crude production for July, following the same 411,000 bpd hike for June. June crude production rose +360,000 bpd to a 1.5-year high of 28.10 million bpd. In a supportive factor for oil prices, Bloomberg reported last Thursday that OPEC+ is discussing a pause in further production increases from October, following its next monthly hike in September of 548,000 barrels. OPEC+ may be concerned about a slowdown in global oil demand in the second half of this year that could lead to a supply glut if the group keeps boosting production. The International Energy Agency said inventories have been accumulating at a rate of 1 million bpd and that the global crude oil market faces a surplus by Q4-2025 equivalent to 1.5% of global crude consumption. A decrease in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -4.6% w/w to 78.03 million bbl in the week ended July 11. Wednesday's weekly EIA report showed that US crude inventories in the week ended July 11 fell by -3.859 million bbls, the first draw in three weeks. Gasoline inventories rose +3.399 million bbls, and distillate inventories rose by +4.173 million bbls. The EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 11 were -8.0% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -0.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -21.1% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending July 11 fell -0.1% w/w to 13.375 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd posted in the week of 12/6/2024. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ending July 11 decreased by -1 rig to a new 3.75-year low of 424 rigs. Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.25-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Axios
17-07-2025
- Business
- Axios
Forecasters hand-wring over tariffs, but the economy's still doing fine
American consumers are spending freely, unemployment filings are low and executives feel more optimistic about business prospects. Why it matters: A trade war-stunted economy remains something forecasters hand-wring about, but it's not the reality on the ground. Economic activity wrapped the second quarter on stronger footing, with consumers spending plenty after a tariff front-loading shopping spree earlier this year. It doesn't look like an economic boom time, but it's also not the stagnation that looked possible just months earlier. Driving the news: Retail sales, which aren't adjusted for inflation, rose by 0.6% in June — more than double the increase that economists anticipated. That came after a sharp pullback in May, when retail sales fell by nearly a full percentage point. It raised fears about a heightened sense of caution among consumers. Spending increased in all but three categories: department stores, furniture retailers and electronics stores. Sales at gasoline stations were flat. Miscellaneous retailers (a group that includes florists, pet supply stores and more), auto dealerships and home improvement stores saw the biggest increase in sales. What they're saying:"Delayed tariff price increases and steady income growth continue to fuel spending despite weak survey data indicating building concerns by households," Nationwide senior economist Ben Ayers wrote in a note. "The strong June for retail sales should support a solid rebound for real GDP growth in the second quarter," Ayers added — but warned that "tariff uncertainty hangs over the outlook." Zoom out: The data follows further confirmation that aggregate layoffs remain low, after a spike in filings earlier this year that stoked concern about weaker labor market trends. Filings for unemployment benefits fell by 7,000 last week to 221,000, the fifth straight week of declines. Survey results from the Philadelphia Fed district — including Delaware and parts of New Jersey and Pennsylvania — showed manufacturers anticipate more hiring and growth over the next six months. The intrigue: The Atlanta Fed GDPNow reading shows 2.6% growth in the second quarter, helped by normalizing imports after a first-quarter rush. Reality check: The economy is not out of the woods, especially as continued trade tensions threaten higher prices for consumers. The Philadelphia Fed survey showed forecasts for stronger activity came alongside expectations of higher prices paid and received. Import prices for consumer goods rose 0.4% in June, the largest one-month increase in over a year. That is before the tariff effect, for which the data does not account. Continued unemployment filings — that is, those collecting benefits for multiple weeks — rose to 1.96 million in early July, ticking up from the previous week, pointing to sluggish hiring for those who do lose their jobs.
