Dollar index pulls back mildly; set for third straight weekly gain
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Mint
an hour ago
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Now thats a reality check
ORLANDO, Florida, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me with comments at . You can also follow me at @ReutersJamie and @ Well, well, well. In a week jam-packed with global tariff, earnings, data and policy fireworks, the most explosive was kept for last: July's U.S. employment report, which shattered the optimism - or complacency - building around the U.S. economy and stock market. Weak job growth, together with the latest wave of steep tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, triggered a huge selloff in global stocks and the dollar on Friday, floored bond yields, and revived expectations of a Fed rate cut next month. * Dollar index snaps six-day winning streak and slumps more than 1%, its biggest fall since April. Dollar/yen plunges 2.2%, biggest fall since January 2023. * S&P 500 slides 1.6%, biggest decline since May, as profit-taking sets in after new highs this week. Nasdaq slumps 2.2% - is tech topping out? * U.S. 2-year bond yield tumbles 26 bps, the biggest fall in a year and akin to an instant quarter-point rate cut. * Crude oil futures fall nearly 3%. * Comex copper steadies on Friday but plunges 24% this week, its worst ever week since futures contracts launched in 1988. Now that's a reality check Global markets were floored on Friday by a powerful one-two punch from the latest U.S. employment data and U.S. tariffs slapped on dozens of countries. It was a sobering reminder that the economic foundations supporting Wall Street's record highs this week may not be that strong. The weak jobs growth seemed to fly in the face of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's assessment on Wednesday that the labor market is strong, and vindicate the two dissenters, Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. Although to be fair to Powell, he did stress that downside risks were growing. Yet average earnings and hours worked rose in July, and the unemployment rate only inched up to 4.2%. That's effectively still full employment. If the bar to cutting rates is tied to the unemployment rate, it is still a high one. Rates futures traders don't see it that way though. They now see a rate cut next month as a near-certainty, and are pricing in 60 basis points of easing by year-end. Investors were also sideswiped on Friday by U.S. President Donald Trump's latest wave of tariffs on 69 trading partners, ranging from 10% to 41%, that will start in a week's time. This will raise the U.S. effective tariff rate closer to 20%, nearly 10 times higher than the end of last year. Of course, bilateral trade deals could be struck and these levies may be lowered, but it is a reminder that the growth and inflation outlook is challenging at best. With equity prices and optimism around Big Tech at such lofty levels, the correction when it came was always likely to be big. If that wasn't enough for investors to digest, Trump announced late on Friday he is firing the commissioner of the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics following the latest jobs data, and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said she is resigning effective August 8 and returning to academia. This paves the way for Trump to appoint someone more aligned with his low interest rate view as her replacement. So the new trading month kicks off with world markets on a shaky footing, and the economy too. Asia's factory activity is deteriorating as tariff uncertainty weighs, and U.S. manufacturing is still in a funk. European factory activity is moving closer to stabilization, but is still contracting. Services, tech and AI-related activity and indicators are shining brighter of course, but even there caution will be creeping into investors' minds. Earnings reports from Apple, Microsoft and Meta were well-received by the market, to put it mildly, but the Nasdaq still shed nearly 2% on the week. August is the main summer holiday month in Europe and North America, so liquidity will thin out. With the VIX index back above 20.0 for the first time since April, trading next week could be choppy. If you want evidence that Trump's tariffs on the rest of the world are starting to push up U.S. goods inflation, look no further. According to Ernie Tedeschi at the Budget Lab at Yale, PCE durable goods prices in the first six months of the year rose 1.7%. Excluding the pandemic, that's the biggest six-month rise since 1987. Here are some of the best things I read this week: 1. Brics currencies are no realistic alternative to the dollar - Herbert Poenisch 2. Europe's Economic Surrender - Alberto Alemanno 3. U.S.-EU Trade Deal Avoids a Tariff War, but Deepens European Dependence - Matthias Matthijs 4. China is also Fighting a Trade War with Europe (and Winning) - Brad Setser 5. Trump's executive orders politicize AI - Tom Wheeler What could move markets on Monday? * U.S. durable goods (June) Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Trading Day is also sent by email every weekday morning. Think your friend or colleague should know about us? Forward this newsletter to them. They can also sign up here. (Writing by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams)
Mint
an hour ago
- Mint
Stocks slump on latest tariffs, soft jobs data
Amazon slides after cloud computing growth underwhelms investors U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in July (Updates to market close) NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks slumped on Friday, with the S&P on track for its biggest daily percentage decline in more than three months as new U.S. tariffs on dozens of trading partners and a surprisingly weak jobs report spurred selling pressure. Also weighing on equities was a tumble in shares after the company posted quarterly results but failed to meet lofty expectations for its Amazon Web Services cloud computing unit. Just hours before the tariff deadline on Friday, President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing duties on U.S. imports from countries, including Canada, Brazil, India and Taiwan, in his latest round of levies as countries attempted to seek ways to reach better deals. Further denting confidence in the economic picture, data showed U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in July while the prior month's report was revised sharply lower, indicating the labor market may be starting to crack. The report significantly pushed up expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its September meeting. "There's no way to pretty-up this report. Previous months were revised significantly lower where the labor market has been on stall-speed," said Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin. "Last year the Fed messed up by not cutting in July so they did a catch-up cut at their next meeting. They'll likely have to do the same thing this year." According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 lost 101.60 points, or 1.60%, to end at 6,237.79 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 472.78 points, or 2.24%, to 20,649.67. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 543.97 points, or 1.23%, to 43,587.01. Market expectations the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 basis points at its September meeting stood at 80.9%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool, up from 37.7% in the prior session. Other data from the Institute for Supply Management showed U.S. manufacturing contracted for a fifth straight month in July and factory employment dropped to the lowest level in five years. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq recorded their biggest single-day percentage declines since April 21 and all three major indexes were on track for weekly losses. The CBOE Volatility Index, also known as Wall Street's fear gauge, climbed to as much as 21.90, its highest since June 23. Amazon was the biggest drag on the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq and pushed the consumer discretionary index, down nearly 4% as the worst performing of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors. Also reporting earnings was Apple, which fell after it posted a current-quarter revenue forecast well above Wall Street estimates, but CEO Tim Cook warned U.S. tariffs would add $1.1 billion in costs over the period. Stocks briefly extended declines after Trump said he ordered the commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erika L. McEntarfer, to be fired in the wake of the jobs data. In contrast to the broad declines, Reddit surged after it reported quarterly results that exceeded Street expectations, boosted by an AI-focused advertising strategy and strong user engagement. (Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak, additional reporting by Nikhil Sharma and Sukriti Gupta in Bengaluru)
Mint
an hour ago
- Mint
Federal Reserve Governor Kugler steps down, giving Trump slot to fill
WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve announced Friday that governor Adriana Kugler will step down next week, opening up a spot on the central bank's powerful board that President Donald Trump will be able to fill. Kugler, who did not participate in the Fed's policy meeting earlier this week, would have completed her term in January. Instead, she will retire Aug. 8. She did not provide a reason for stepping down in her resignation letter. Trump has continued his attacks on the Fed since chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the central bank would keep its short-term interest rate unchanged. Powell also said the Fed could take months to evaluate the impact of tariffs on the economy before deciding to cut rates, as Trump has demanded. Powell is 'a stubborn MORON, must substantially lower interest rates, NOW," Trump posted early Friday morning, before the monthly jobs report was released. That report showed hiring slowed in July and was much lower in May and June than had been initially reported. Kugler was appointed to the Fed's seven-member board of governors by former President Joe Biden in September 2023. She was the first Hispanic Fed governor, and prior to joining the Fed, was a professor at Georgetown University and was the U.S. representative to the World Bank. She will return to the Georgetown faculty in the fall. 'I am proud to have tackled this role with integrity, a strong commitment to serving the public, and with a data-driven approach strongly based on my expertise in labor markets and inflation,' she said in her resignation letter. This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
