The Martin Zubimendi passing paradox: Why his numbers don't match the hype

New York Times

6 days ago

As the football data revolution continues at pace, it's easier than ever to build up an image of a player without ever really needing to see them in action.
Free online statistical sources can be powerful tools, giving us an outline of someone's game, but event data alone often lacks the crucial context provided by the eye when evaluating real quality.
Martin Zubimendi's subtle brilliance lies between those statistical rifts — Arsenal have signed a selfless midfield facilitator whose raw numbers never seem to jump off the page.
He ranked 19th of 69 midfielders in La Liga for forward passes completed per game with Real Sociedad last season, and was down at 27th for progressive carries. His passing accuracy, at 84.4 per cent, feels distinctly middle of the road for a player who has generated such excitement for his tempo-setting ability.
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Part of it can be explained away by semantics, metric definitions that don't quite capture those passes that feel as if they've made a difference — whether he's found a team-mate in space, picked up the pace of play or destabilised the opposition shape. But with advancements in tracking data, we can start to explore how someone like Zubimendi's passes actually interact with the game around them, and to give credit to those players who can turn the tide of a match without providing that crucial final ball.
With the help of SkillCorner data, The Athletic delves into the tape to find out what's going on…
At the heart of Real Sociedad's in-possession game — he was the player with the most touches, passes and carries in their squad last season — Zubimendi's role was all about providing balance. He would float across the width of the pitch, identify when team-mates were under pressure or outnumbered, and offer himself as the spare man, not afraid to launch himself into tricky situations if it helped his side keep the ball moving.
It means the numbers often paint Zubimendi as a risk-averse passer, keeping things ticking over in midfield with short and simple balls in his own half, but there is more to the event data than meets the eye.
According to SkillCorner, close to 57 per cent of his passes last season were attempted under pressure, while only nine midfielders in La Liga absorbed a higher proportion of the pressures that their team received (9.4 per cent).
In short, much of what Zubimendi does on the ball needs to be done quickly, with the opposition breathing down his neck — but he is happy to shoulder much of that stress for his team.
The sequence below against Valencia, for example, captures Zubimendi's role well, with the 26-year-old Spain international lurking behind the two strikers during build-up before drifting into a position to receive the pass.
He doesn't have to do much to create the space for himself on this occasion, but after picking up the ball, he takes opponents Javi Guerra and Hugo Duro out of the game with a short burst of acceleration before sliding a pass through to Sergio Gomez, who himself spins and keeps the play moving.
Under traditional definitions, Zubimendi's action here wouldn't be labelled as 'progressive' — dig into the small print and you'll see that a progressive pass must not start from the defending 40 per cent of the pitch — but to the viewer, his change of tempo and forward ball are transformative, taking his team from slow build-up to a four-vs-four higher up the pitch.
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In this next example, against Athletic Club, Zubimendi is much more incisive and his movement out wide to receive the pass from full-back Hamari Traore is crucial in helping Real Sociedad escape an aggressive man-to-man press.
Still, despite moving his team from a potentially difficult spot and launching a quick attack with an adventurous first-time ball, Zubimendi would not be rewarded by many traditional progressive passing metrics in this instance either, due to the pass starting too far back.
Tracking data can help bridge the gap between the more intangible parts of build-up play and data analysis.
By contextualising game events in relation to the other players on the pitch — looking at how passes weaken defensive structures, bypass defenders, escape pressure — we can credit those who can change the pace of a match by hitting the sorts of balls that otherwise might have gone unnoticed.
Line-breaking passes are a good place to start, defined by SkillCorner as those that progress the ball through, over or around organised defensive shapes.
Zubimendi ranked highly for these across last season, trailing only Barcelona's Pedri with his total of 157 from central midfield, and being ninth among La Liga midfielders with his average of 4.7 per game.
In the clip below against Celta Vigo, we see a good example of how inquisitive Zubimendi can be with possession, producing three line-breaking passes in the space of eight seconds after dropping deep between his defenders, eventually finding Pablo Marin with a left-footed ball.
While none of these passes make huge progress up the pitch, Celta defenders are constantly asked to step out and put pressure on the receivers after Zubimendi picks them out. They are probing balls, they ask questions, and they eventually create spaces for the play to develop up ahead.
He can also pick up the pace and be much more direct, as shown by this excellent pass against Valencia.
Again, Zubimendi's movement into defence eases the build-up, giving centre-back Igor Zubeldia an easier pass under pressure from the opposition. From there, the 26-year-old breaks two defensive lines with a left-footed ball, met with a neat Mikel Oyarzabal flick to open up the space.
It was not technically progressive, according to many popular event-data sources, but it was an example of the kind of bold, forward-thinking pass for which Zubimendi doesn't always get credit.
He isn't always so aggressive, of course, and there will be games where you hardly notice him jumping from space to space in deep build-up and offering himself for passes simply to help his team-mates escape.
But when Zubimendi spots the opportunity to switch up the tempo, he can — and often does so to good effect.
Mapping Zubimendi's line-breaking passes helps outline his role further, zipping the ball short and sharp through the first defensive line before generally looking to the flanks with longer passes further up the pitch.
He doesn't tend to get too involved when moving the ball into the opposition box, but the eye test suggests that for a territorially dominant side such as Arsenal, where defences will sit deeper, he will have more opportunities to find team-mates in dangerous, central areas.
SkillCorner can also help to quantify his ability to move the ball forward at speed, having completed 77 'quick' line-breaking passes last season — defined as those released first-time, or within one second of receiving the ball. Only Real Madrid duo Luka Modric and Federico Valverde and Barca's Pedri made more among La Liga's midfielders.
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The following clip against Mallorca shows how Zubimendi can quickly sort his feet out to escape from tricky situations as he plays a sharp one-two with Luka Sucic before using his left boot to control the ball, then poking a pass through to full-back Aihen Munoz.
Moving the ball through the lines, he then drifts forward with the play, eventually finding winger Ander Barrenetxea with a scooped pass in behind.
Here's another example of Zubimendi helping to pick up the pace, away at Osasuna, dropping into a position to receive and breaking the midfield line with a one-touch pass.
While not particularly dangerous in isolation, it's the speed of the forward ball that catches the opposition press off-guard, and allows his team-mates operating further up the pitch to move into space.
Declan Rice was excellent for Arsenal in the deeper midfield role last season, but things come naturally to Zubimendi in build-up. He has a knack for escaping pressure and an instinctive understanding of when and how best to move the ball forward.
For any Arsenal fans concerned by the seemingly underwhelming numbers, don't worry; Zubimendi takes more risks and plays a much more significant role in helping his team attack than they might initially suggest.