Big firms could ‘flip' to Northern Ireland amid ongoing tariff war with US
While Lucinda Creighton, former Minister of State for European Affairs, says it's not a scenario she wants to see, if the US hits the EU with larger tariffs, she believes Northern Ireland could see new opportunities, given its 'unique' position
And she says that's regardless of the emerging tariff situation, given Northern Ireland's position on the world stage under the Windsor Framework.
'I do think that there is a unique position there to be leveraged,' she told Ulster Business.
'[That's] regardless of what the tariff situation looks like. Under the NI Protocol and Windsor Framework, that different countries would employ different tariffs to the EU… that is something which is going to be a factor in the future of Northern Ireland.
'So many Irish businesses [which have operations] north and south, you could see some of that flipping. It could happen – I'm not advocating for it, but you could see an easier solution for companies as opposed to absorbing those tariffs.'
US President Donald Trump announced a swathe of global tariffs, including an initial 20% on EU goods, and 10% for those coming from the UK. However, the majority of those are currently on hold.
Ms Creighton was in Belfast to launch Vulcan Consulting's new Belfast office, which will be headed by Conor Houston.
She said Northern Ireland has an opportunity to grow its talent pool, with a focus now on skills rather than tax incentives for foreign direct investment.
'We are busy and active with an office in Brussels, focused on the EU institutions,' she says.
'With the UK gone from the EU, that direct link diminished for Northern Ireland, directly. We can play a role in building relationships with Northern Ireland companies, and with other organisations.'
And with uncertainty in the air, globally – with potential tariffs on the way, but yet to be introduced – Ms Creighton says it's likely that major investment decisions will be 'on pause' for most US multi-national companies.
'… it puts a freeze on things,' she says. 'With turmoil comes opportunity. I was minister during financial crisis. If you look at how Ireland emerged, it was more competitive for FDI, and we made structural changes which benefited the economy and society – [we can] look at this as an opportunity.'
Vulcan Consulting specialises in providing clients with strategic advice on navigating the political and regulatory landscapes in Ireland and across Europe.
'[There is now] an opportunity for Europe to get its health in order,' she says. '[It's] investing in defence… there is huge opportunity for the north, as it's already [working] in security, defence and cyber-security.'
Asked if the potential impact on the economy could be more sizeable than the financial crisis in 2008, Ms Creighton said it could 'potentially have a longer term impact'.
'This is much more wide ranging across entire economy and global world order with trade,' she says.
'I'm still optimistic… there's a long way to go and a painful few months. We have to hope that ultimately the US isn't going to destroy the US economy, which they are on track to do at the moment.'
On her own firm's plans, Ms Creighton says it's planning to extend its footprint and reach across the sectors.
'[We are] working across the sectors – life sciences, medtech, digital, tech, semi-conductors and veering into AI.
'We are very much focused on the huge potential for an all-island approach to some of that, especially around energy, as a lot of it is connected – north to south, and east to west.
'We have lots of UK clients and aspirations to grow in GB. Northern Ireland is a key focal point of that unique status under the Windsor Framework.'
Speaking about the new Northern Ireland base, she says: 'We have opened our Belfast office at a time of huge uncertainty for businesses in Northern Ireland, especially with the recent announcement of US tariffs and potential retaliation by the UK and the EU.
'We have worked with many of Ireland's leading companies including Amazon, Intel, Bank of America, Eli Lilly and Johnson & Johnson. We have experience in delivering influence and impact for these global companies at the most senior levels within the EU – and across the globe.'
And Conor Houston, Vulcan Consulting's Northern Ireland director, says we are 'uniquely placed as a global gateway for trade'.
'The Vulcan team can maximise the influence of Northern Ireland's leading companies in Ireland, the EU, the US and beyond. There is huge opportunity to support companies seeking to develop an all-island presence.
'With offices in Brussels, Dublin and now Belfast, I know that our team at Vulcan can bring the global insight, influence and perspective to navigate this fast-changing world and grow their businesses internationally.'
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