Donald Trump Gets Even More Bad News on US Economy
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Analysts expect U.S. jobs figures to face further revisions this year, after downward adjustments to recent data angered President Donald Trump and led him to the fire the country's top employment statistician.
According to a note released by Goldman Sachs over the weekend, preliminary revision estimates set to be published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in September will reveal a 550,000-950,000 downward revision for the 12-month period through March 2025.
Why It Matters
Although the period subject to such change overlaps with more of Joe Biden's presidency than Trump's second term, these substantial revisions will be viewed against the backdrop of the White House's recent criticism of the agency.
Following a weak jobs reading on Friday, and substantial revisions to earlier data, the president accused the BLS commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, of rigging data to reflect poorly on his administration and fired her from her post.
This move has been roundly criticized by officials and lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, who believe it will undermine the credibility and independence of the BLS, but the White House has pointed to other significant revisions as evidence of persistent inaccurate data-gathering by the agency.
What To Know
On Friday, the BLS released its report on non-farm payroll employment for July, revealing that only 73,000 jobs were added in the month compared to consensus forecasts of 110,000. In addition, the agency downwardly revised figures from May and June by a total of 258,000 jobs.
Hours after the announcement, Trump said he would be firing McEntarfer "immediately" and replacing her with "someone much more competent and qualified."
Without evidence, the president said July's figures were "RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad," and accused McEntarfer of manipulating the data "for political purposes."
U.S. President Donald Trump outside the White House on August 1, 2025, in Washington, D.C.
U.S. President Donald Trump outside the White House on August 1, 2025, in Washington, D.C.Trump pointed to sizable revisions by the BLS under McEntarfer's leadership, in particular its last preliminary annual benchmark revision last August, when the agency found that the economy had created 818,000 fewer jobs than initially reported in the 12-month period through March 2024. This was later updated to reflect a 598,000 overestimation in previous data.
Trump incorrectly claimed that this was a "record" revision—the final revision in 2009 came to 902,000—and listed other examples he said were used to "try and boost" the Democrats' chances of victory in the 2024 election.
However, should the higher-end estimate of 950,000 provided by Goldman Sachs be correct, and not amended in subsequent estimates, this would amount to the largest downward revision since tracking began in 1979.
What People Are Saying
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius told CNBC on Friday that the revisions to June and May's data make it "very, very likely" the Federal Reserve will cut rates at its next meeting in September.
"This is a meaningful data release. But it's one data release. And we'll want to see what the picture looks like over the next couple of months," Hatzius said. "But if we get confirmation that things have slowed as much in the labor market then I would say yeah, we should get back to neutral pretty quickly."
The White House, in a press release on Friday, said: "A lengthy history of inaccuracies and incompetence by Erika McEntarfer, the former Biden-appointed commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has completely eroded public trust in the government agency charged with disseminating key data used by policymakers and businesses to make consequential decisions."
Pollster Nate Silver, in a Sunday newsletter, wrote: "Firing the BLS commissioner won't prevent the effects of tariffs. But it will reduce American economic leadership and increase uncertainty for businesses, workers and investors."
"I'm not sure exactly where firing the BLS commissioner ranks on the list of Trump-related outrages," he added. "Even if Congress does its job and McEntarfer is replaced with another competent successor, this could have a chilling effect on BLS and other government agencies to operate independently."
What Happens Next?
Trump said on Sunday that he would announce a replacement for McEntarfer "sometime over the next three, four days." Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer said that Deputy Commissioner William Wiatrowski will take over as acting commissioner during the interim.
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