The Great Wealth Transfer: 6 Reasons Why It Might Fall Short

Forbes

2 days ago

The Great Wealth Transfer numbers are staggering. Estimates suggest that over $124 trillion is poised to change hands as Baby Boomers transfer their wealth to the next generation. But will this so-called Great Wealth Transfer really deliver the promised windfall?
Well into their 60s, Bill and Lori always believed that when the time came, they would leave an inheritance to their children. Nothing extravagant—just a modest suburban home and savings accumulated over a lifetime. For their children, Diane and Adam, it provided quiet reassurance, a mental safety net they never fully depended on but always considered part of their future. (Names and identifying details have been changed to protect the privacy of individuals.)
But life has a way of rewriting plans and good intentions. Bill's arthritis and early dementia have resulted in new, unexpected costs. Lori, still energetic but facing her own health challenges, is paying for in-home aides and long-overdue roof repairs. She has also decided it's finally time for that trip to Italy they've been talking about for decades. Diane and Adam understand and are glad to see their parents making the most of their retirement—yet they realize that the inheritance they once quietly anticipated may not be as certain as they had hoped.
Their story isn't unique. It's the untold side of the much-discussed Great Wealth Transfer, the historic shift of trillions of dollars primarily from aging Baby Boomers to Millennials and Gen Z. The numbers—like Diane and Adam's once-predictable inheritance—don't lie, but they obscure the very real ways in which longevity, rising healthcare costs, changing family dynamics, and shifting priorities may rewrite how, when, and how much this transfer will occur. This is an untold yet unfolding story within the longevity economy.
It's easy to get swept up in the headline numbers: trillions of dollars poised to change hands, a once-in-a-generation economic boost. However, as one family's experience illustrates, the story of the Great Wealth Transfer is far more complex. It's a story of longer lives, unplanned events, evolving priorities, rising costs, and the reality that financial security for one generation doesn't necessarily translate to a great handoff to the next.
To understand how the Great Wealth Transfer may unfold—and why it might not be quite as 'great' as the headlines promise—we need to look at six overlooked factors shaping this massive shift of wealth.
Estimates from Cerulli Associates suggest that around $124 trillion will be transferred by 2048, with nearly $100 trillion originating from Baby Boomers and older generations. Yet, over 50% of that wealth will come from high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth households, which make up just 2% of all families. For most younger Americans, this expected transfer may never happen because it simply isn't there.
Even among families who do stand to inherit, the rising cost of healthcare is quietly eroding those assets. Fidelity estimates a 65-year-old couple today will need about $330,000 for medical expenses in retirement—excluding long-term care costs. These expenses often arrive when people least expect them: a sudden hospitalization, a chronic illness that requires ongoing care, or simply the steady rise in insurance premiums as we age.
This reality is especially pronounced for women, who often outlive their husbands by years or even decades. For many, this second retirement involves managing rising healthcare costs alone—sometimes for a decade or more after their spouse's passing. What was once a couple's shared plan for an inheritance or a family legacy can become a widow's quiet struggle to pay for her care and maintain her independence. These later-life expenses can turn what was once considered a predictable inheritance into a financial safety net redirected to the daily demands of living longer.
Dementia poses a significant and often overlooked threat to the anticipated Great Wealth Transfer. A report by my MIT AgeLab colleague Luke Yoquinto and our AARP partners, Karen Kali and Julie Miller, indicates that financial missteps—such as missed bill payments, risky investments, and susceptibility to scams—can occur years before a formal dementia diagnosis, leading to substantial wealth loss and eroding savings that may have been intended for a planned inheritance. Moreover, the costs associated with long-term care for individuals with dementia can devastate a family's savings. This financial strain not only depletes the assets meant for inheritance but also places a heavy burden on family members, who often take on caregiving responsibilities, further impacting their own financial stability and retirement plans.
Much of the wealth held by Baby Boomers is tied up in real estate. Most are suburban homes that may not align with the lifestyles or housing needs of younger generations. Baby Boomers are remaining in these homes longer and often neglect necessary upkeep. A Business Insider article noted that many of these homes are filled with stuff that will take time and money to sort out—resulting in a real estate legacy that can feel more like a liability than a gift.
For children inheriting a house in an aging suburb, the financial and emotional costs can be significant—particularly in a dynamic mortgage interest rate environment. Decisions about whether to sell, rent, or renovate become complex, especially if the property requires maintenance or if multiple family heirs are involved.
The traditional notion of passing on a legacy is evolving. For many Boomers, the dream isn't to leave it all behind for their kids, but to enjoy it while they can. A significant number are prioritizing travel, experiences, and home upgrades over saving every last dollar for inheritance.
A Charles Schwab study reports that nearly all wealthy Americans intend to leave an inheritance. However, 21% of Baby Boomers prefer a strategy of giving while living, such as creating memories through family travel and assisting adult children with home buying. Perhaps most striking is that a full 45% of Baby Boomers agreed with the statement, 'I want to enjoy my money for myself while I am still alive.'
Not all families stay close. Being in what has become popularly known as 'no contact' may be quietly on the rise. One in four (27%) Americans report being estranged from a parent, child, sibling, or grandparent. These deep rifts can completely disrupt inheritance plans.
Estrangement also brings up uncomfortable questions: What happens to the family home if no one wants it—or if no one is willing to talk? How does the money pass when there's no relationship? These quiet divides can turn even the most generous inheritance plans into a source of confusion and potential conflict.
Thanks to increasing longevity and advancements in healthcare, inheritances are often arriving later in life than many younger generations might expect. This delay means that younger Gen Xers and Millennials, who may have already navigated significant financial milestones—like buying a home or sending kids to college—without that anticipated boost, may find inheritances to be more symbolic than transformative.
For women, this extended lifespan can complicate matters further. A decade or more of living in solo retirement often leads to a different relationship with adult children and a shifting perspective on what a financial legacy truly means. Plans made as a couple may change as one partner—typically the woman—navigates the final chapter alone, balancing her own needs with the opportunity to pass something on.
The numbers around the Great Wealth Transfer are extraordinary, but they fuel a headline that overshadows the underlying story: this is not just a story of dollars, but of decades of longer life, evolving family ties, and the very human decisions about what it means to live well and leave well. In the end, the Great Wealth Transfer will not be measured by bank balances, but by how families navigate these hidden complexities—balancing care, connection, communication, purpose, and legacy in a world where living longer means living differently.