The big buydown bet
In today's big story, homebuyers made a big bet on lower mortgage rates. They're paying a high price.
What's on deck:
Markets: Bank of America thinks these 10 cheap stocks are poised for big gains.
Tech: This party is the surest sign yet that the tech dating scene is a mess.
Business: In its latest hardcore turn, AT&T is hitting some managers with an ultimatum.
But first, betting the house.
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The big story
The big buydown bet
For homebuilders, it represented a silver bullet. For buyers, it can be a mousetrap.
Rick Palacios Jr., the director of research at John Burns Research and Consulting, has been sounding the alarm since last summer about a dangerous gamble tempting Americans: " mortgage rate buydowns."
They seemed to offer an elegant solution. With mortgage rates sky-high, your dream home might feel out of reach. That's not good for you, nor for the homebuilders stuck with inventory.
But what if a homebuilder shaved a percentage point off your monthly payments, even just for the first couple of years? Surely, rates must drop soon. When the deal runs out, you could refinance. Easy.
The cost to builders is the upfront cash to lower the rate via their in-house lenders. Matt Hutton, a millennial homebuyer, told BI his builder threw in $30,000 in incentives — including the buydown — to close the deal.
You buy your house. They sell theirs. Crucially, the official listing price doesn't change, so home values remain inflated.
That was the wager a few years ago. Today, rates are typically still above 6.5% — right where buyers had hoped not to end up. Their gamble has failed spectacularly, BI's James Rodriguez writes.
Andre Rucker for BI
There's an even more dire scenario, Palacios warns.
What if you need to sell?
Life happens — a new job, a marriage, a divorce — and you may have to move. But today's sellers face a weak market. In many parts of the US, more homes are sitting unsold than at any point since the pandemic.
Buyers a few years ago may have accepted inflated prices in exchange for monthly savings — but they can't usually pass those savings along to the next buyer. To close a deal, they may have to take a loss.
Just ask Hutton. After five years, he and his wife sold their first home for a $150,000 profit and upgraded to a bigger, brand-new home for nearly $800,000.
A few months later, they wanted out.
They ended up selling it for roughly what they paid for it, after dropping their asking price by $50,000.
In addition, the buyer asked them to cover a $40,000 buydown to match the builder's ongoing incentives for nearby homes. They agreed.
Today, Hutton and his wife are back in an apartment, waiting for another shot at the dream.
3 things in markets
1. Wage growth isn't keeping up with prices. However, some industries have enjoyed more growth than others. Business services and financial activities have less purchasing power than they did in 2021, while hospitality and healthcare workers have more.
2. Bank of America shares 10 ultra-cheap stocks primed to rebound. The bank thinks the days of large-cap stock dominance are numbered. If the US enters a recovery phase alongside rate cuts, beaten-down stocks could surge.
3. A short-seller explains why he thinks Palantir is overvalued. In a new note, Andrew Left's firm Citron Research used OpenAI's $500 billion valuation as a benchmark to measure the defense tech giant against. Even if Palantir fell to $40 a share, it'd still be expensive, the firm said.
3 things in tech
1. Inside San Francisco's "enforced ratio" party in a Tesla showroom. Fed up with male-dominated spaces in SF, two women who work in the tech industry threw a bash centered around "feminine energy." It offered a rare chance to dress up and a strictly enforced 50/50 gender ratio — which, of course, left hundreds of men on the waitlist.
2. Another W for Tim Cook. The Apple CEO notched a win in his fight with the UK government, which had ordered the company to make encrypted user data accessible to it. Apple enjoyed the backing of the US government, which said that the UK had agreed to drop the order.
3. Do you miss the old internet? There's an app for that. Perfectly Imperfect is a newsletter and social network that's designed to feel like the old version of the internet, reminiscent of Tumblr and MySpace. Its founder told BI it's betting on events and community-focused tools to grow.
3 things in business
1. AT&T tells some managers: Relocate or get laid off. The telecom company is consolidating 22 internal help-desk centers into six US locations. Affected managers get two weeks to decide whether to move or lose their jobs and get severance, BI's Tim Paradis and Dominick Reuter exclusively report.
2. Spike Lee's Colin Kaepernick doc is officially game over. The acclaimed director has no plans to shop around his scrapped ESPN docuseries about the retired football player to other platforms. "That thing fell apart a year ago," Lee said in an interview with BI's Jason Guerrasio. " I've moved on."
3. We still don't know if Trump is getting free ads from Paramount. Trump says Larry and David Ellison promised him millions in free ads, but Paramount CEO David Ellison doesn't want to comment on it. We shouldn't be left guessing about what's true, writes BI's Peter Kafka.
In other news
Meta CTO gives his short-term and long-term predictions for AI's impact on software engineering.
Wall Street bosses want junior bankers to come clean about PE jobs. It won't be easy.
A CPA couple who invest in real estate on the side share the investment mistake that cost them about six-figures worth of 401(k) money.
What investors should be listening for in Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech.
OpenAI chairman compares AI to the dot-com boom: There's lots of "snake oil" but some " real value being created."
What the " hidden job market" really is and how to make it work for you.
What's happening today
Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published.
Lowe's and Target report earnings.
Made by Google event to launch latest devices, including Pixel smartphone.
Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Meghan Morris, bureau chief, in Singapore. Akin Oyedele, deputy editor, in New York. Amanda Yen, associate editor, in New York. Lisa Ryan, executive editor, in New York. Kiera Fields, editor, in London. Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York (on parental leave).
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TJX Companies shares rise after earnings beat and raise TJ Maxx parent TJX Companies (TJX) beat sales and profit estimates for the second quarter and raised its annual profit forecast, boosting shares in premarket trading. Reuters reports: Read more here. TJ Maxx parent TJX Companies (TJX) beat sales and profit estimates for the second quarter and raised its annual profit forecast, boosting shares in premarket trading. Reuters reports: Read more here. Lowe's stock rises after same-store sales return to growth Lowe's (LOW) stock popped in premarket trading on Wednesday after the home improvement retailer reported a return to same-store sales growth, earnings beat, and raised its guidance. Yahoo Finance's Brooke DiPalma reports: Read more here. Lowe's (LOW) stock popped in premarket trading on Wednesday after the home improvement retailer reported a return to same-store sales growth, earnings beat, and raised its guidance. Yahoo Finance's Brooke DiPalma reports: Read more here. Baidu quarterly revenue falls as weak ads offset cloud growth Reuters reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. Estee Lauder forecasts annual profit below estimates as tariffs hit Estee Lauder (EL) stock fell 8% before the bell on Wednesday after the beauty group forecast annual profit below Wall Street estimates, as it grapples with persistent weakness in the US and China markets and tariff uncertainty. Reuters reports: Read more here. Estee Lauder (EL) stock fell 8% before the bell on Wednesday after the beauty group forecast annual profit below Wall Street estimates, as it grapples with persistent weakness in the US and China markets and tariff uncertainty. Reuters reports: Read more here. Toll Brothers beats on earnings, but new orders decline 4% Toll Brothers (TOL) reported another double beat in its fiscal third quarter, but a slowdown in new orders weighed on the stock, which drifted 1.6% lower after hours. 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While affordability pressures and uncertain economic conditions persist, we are pleased with the resilience of our luxury business and more affluent customer base." La-Z-Boy stock drops on soft earnings and guidance La-Z-Boy stock (LZB) dropped 16% in after-hours trading after the company missed earnings estimates and navigated "soft industry demand." Overall, comparable sales dropped 1% to $492 million from a year ago. Sales in the furniture retailer's wholesale segment increased 1%, and retail sales rose 5%, but they were offset by weakness in the Joybird brand, which saw sales decline 14%. La-Z-Boy reported diluted earnings per share of $0.44, compared to $0.61 per share a year ago. The Street was looking for earnings of $0.52 per share. La-Z-Boy's guidance also came in lighter than expected. It expects sales in the range of $510 million to $530 million in the fiscal second quarter. Wall Street was looking for $532 million, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. La-Z-Boy stock (LZB) dropped 16% in after-hours trading after the company missed earnings estimates and navigated "soft industry demand." Overall, comparable sales dropped 1% to $492 million from a year ago. Sales in the furniture retailer's wholesale segment increased 1%, and retail sales rose 5%, but they were offset by weakness in the Joybird brand, which saw sales decline 14%. La-Z-Boy reported diluted earnings per share of $0.44, compared to $0.61 per share a year ago. The Street was looking for earnings of $0.52 per share. La-Z-Boy's guidance also came in lighter than expected. It expects sales in the range of $510 million to $530 million in the fiscal second quarter. Wall Street was looking for $532 million, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Medtronic appoints 2 new board members, posts Q1 beat Irish medical device maker Medtronic (MDT) reported better-than-expected earnings for its fiscal first quarter on Monday. But the bigger story was the company's announcement that it would add two new directors to its board after activist investor Elliott Investment Management became one of its largest shareholders. Veteran med-tech executives John Groetelaars and Bill Jellison were appointed, the company said. Medtronic stock dropped over 3% in premarket trading. For the quarter, the company posted adjusted earnings of $1.26 per share, beating analysts' estimates for $1.23, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Revenue came in at $8.6 billion, above Wall Street's forecast of $8.4 billion. Read more here. Irish medical device maker Medtronic (MDT) reported better-than-expected earnings for its fiscal first quarter on Monday. But the bigger story was the company's announcement that it would add two new directors to its board after activist investor Elliott Investment Management became one of its largest shareholders. Veteran med-tech executives John Groetelaars and Bill Jellison were appointed, the company said. Medtronic stock dropped over 3% in premarket trading. For the quarter, the company posted adjusted earnings of $1.26 per share, beating analysts' estimates for $1.23, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Revenue came in at $8.6 billion, above Wall Street's forecast of $8.4 billion. Read more here. Home Depot slightly misses Wall Street's mark in Q2 earnings, reiterates guidance Home Depot (HD) released its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday. Yahoo Finance's senior reporter Brooke DiPalma looks at the latest from the retail giant and how the US housing slump has impacted its bottom line. Read more here. Home Depot (HD) released its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday. Yahoo Finance's senior reporter Brooke DiPalma looks at the latest from the retail giant and how the US housing slump has impacted its bottom line. Read more here. China's Xpeng expects quarterly revenue to double on strong demand for its EVs Chinese electric vehicle maker Xpeng (XPEV) on Tuesday forecast third-quarter revenue would double. The company is betting on surging deliveries of its cars despite challenging economic conditions. The group's stock rose 0.6% in premarket trading on Tuesday. Reuters reports: Read more here. Chinese electric vehicle maker Xpeng (XPEV) on Tuesday forecast third-quarter revenue would double. The company is betting on surging deliveries of its cars despite challenging economic conditions. The group's stock rose 0.6% in premarket trading on Tuesday. Reuters reports: Read more here. Xiaomi's revenue rises 31% after second EV fires up consumers Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Palo Alto Networks stock pops on healthy earnings growth, guidance Palo Alto Networks (PANW) stock shot up 6% after hours after the company reported solid earnings and margin growth in its fiscal fourth quarter. The cybersecurity firm reported $2.54 billion in revenue in its fiscal fourth quarter (a 16% increase) and earnings per share of $0.95. Wall Street analysts expected revenue of $2.50 billion and earnings of $0.89 per share, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Shares of Palo Alto Networks are off by 10% over the past month due to a drawdown following the company's $25 billion acquisition of identity security solutions provider CyberArk. But guidance for full-year adjusted EPS of $3.75 to $3.85 also came in above expectations amid the deal. "Cybersecurity is a clear 2nd/3rd derivative play on the AI Revolution with PANW in the driver's seat to gain market/mind share in the cybersecurity landscape," Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note ahead of earnings. Ives added, "the continued shift to the cloud [is] putting the company in a strong position to accelerate deal flow as more strategic enterprise AI projects take hold over the coming year." Palo Alto Networks (PANW) stock shot up 6% after hours after the company reported solid earnings and margin growth in its fiscal fourth quarter. The cybersecurity firm reported $2.54 billion in revenue in its fiscal fourth quarter (a 16% increase) and earnings per share of $0.95. Wall Street analysts expected revenue of $2.50 billion and earnings of $0.89 per share, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Shares of Palo Alto Networks are off by 10% over the past month due to a drawdown following the company's $25 billion acquisition of identity security solutions provider CyberArk. But guidance for full-year adjusted EPS of $3.75 to $3.85 also came in above expectations amid the deal. "Cybersecurity is a clear 2nd/3rd derivative play on the AI Revolution with PANW in the driver's seat to gain market/mind share in the cybersecurity landscape," Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note ahead of earnings. Ives added, "the continued shift to the cloud [is] putting the company in a strong position to accelerate deal flow as more strategic enterprise AI projects take hold over the coming year." Goldman's Kostin says S&P 500 earnings surge past expectations Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Walmart, Target quarterly results on deck next week The focus turns to retailers next week as heavyweights Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Lowe's (LOW), and Home Depot (HD) report results. Investors will be listening for changes in consumer behavior as tariffs and inflation remain top concerns for households. Earlier this earnings season, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy noted that the company wasn't seeing diminishing demand or meaningful price increases. Similarly, Mastercard CEO Michael Miebach said consumer spending remains healthy. However, recent data showed retail sales rose by less than expected in July. And some companies, particularly fast-casual restaurants, noted their customers were pulling back. With that mixed picture in the backdrop, the earnings calendar next week should provide additional insights from some of the big brands Americans shop. Here's what's on deck: Monday Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Blink Charging (BLNK) Tuesday Home Depot, Xpeng (XPEV), Medtronic (MDT), La-Z-Boy (LZB), Toll Brothers (TOL) Wednesday Target, Lowe's, Baidu (BIDU), TJX Companies (TJX), Estée Lauder (EL) Thursday Walmart, Intuit (INTU), Zoom Communications (ZM), Workday (WDAY), Ross Stores (ROST) Friday BJ's Wholesale (BJ) The focus turns to retailers next week as heavyweights Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Lowe's (LOW), and Home Depot (HD) report results. Investors will be listening for changes in consumer behavior as tariffs and inflation remain top concerns for households. Earlier this earnings season, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy noted that the company wasn't seeing diminishing demand or meaningful price increases. Similarly, Mastercard CEO Michael Miebach said consumer spending remains healthy. However, recent data showed retail sales rose by less than expected in July. And some companies, particularly fast-casual restaurants, noted their customers were pulling back. With that mixed picture in the backdrop, the earnings calendar next week should provide additional insights from some of the big brands Americans shop. Here's what's on deck: Monday Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Blink Charging (BLNK) Tuesday Home Depot, Xpeng (XPEV), Medtronic (MDT), La-Z-Boy (LZB), Toll Brothers (TOL) Wednesday Target, Lowe's, Baidu (BIDU), TJX Companies (TJX), Estée Lauder (EL) Thursday Walmart, Intuit (INTU), Zoom Communications (ZM), Workday (WDAY), Ross Stores (ROST) Friday BJ's Wholesale (BJ) With Nvidia's Q2 earnings in sight, Trump deal could boost outlook Nvidia's (NVDA) deal with President Trump to give the US government a 15% cut of H20 chip revenue in China adds an interesting wrinkle to the company's earnings. China has responded by urging companies not to use the chips. Yahoo Finance's Daniel Howley writes that the payment, which could face legal challenges, won't show up in Nvidia's Q2 report but could boost its Q3 outlook if the administration moves quickly. Howley notes: Read more here. Nvidia's (NVDA) deal with President Trump to give the US government a 15% cut of H20 chip revenue in China adds an interesting wrinkle to the company's earnings. China has responded by urging companies not to use the chips. Yahoo Finance's Daniel Howley writes that the payment, which could face legal challenges, won't show up in Nvidia's Q2 report but could boost its Q3 outlook if the administration moves quickly. Howley notes: Read more here. McGraw Hill posts profitable quarter in first post-IPO earnings report McGraw Hill (MH) stock gained 2% after reporting its first quarterly results since going public. It traded around $13.61 on Thursday afternoon. In July, shares opened at $17 apiece in the company's IPO. Total revenue increased 2.4% year over year to $535.7 million. The education solutions company also swung to a $0.5 million profit, compared to its $9.4 million loss a year ago. Market share gains, enrollment, and continued demand for digital learning solutions fueled the higher education business, which saw revenue jump 14.1% year over year. Revenue for the K-12 segment, however, declined 1.4%. These two business units make up the bulk of McGraw Hill's business. The smaller international business noted weakness, with an 11.7% decrease in revenue, while sales in the global professional business held steady. For 2026, McGraw Hill sees revenue in a range of $1.98 billion to $2.04 billion. Listen to the earnings call here. McGraw Hill (MH) stock gained 2% after reporting its first quarterly results since going public. It traded around $13.61 on Thursday afternoon. In July, shares opened at $17 apiece in the company's IPO. Total revenue increased 2.4% year over year to $535.7 million. The education solutions company also swung to a $0.5 million profit, compared to its $9.4 million loss a year ago. Market share gains, enrollment, and continued demand for digital learning solutions fueled the higher education business, which saw revenue jump 14.1% year over year. Revenue for the K-12 segment, however, declined 1.4%. These two business units make up the bulk of McGraw Hill's business. The smaller international business noted weakness, with an 11.7% decrease in revenue, while sales in the global professional business held steady. For 2026, McGraw Hill sees revenue in a range of $1.98 billion to $2.04 billion. Listen to the earnings call here. Quantum Computing stock slips as losses accelerate Quantum Computing (QUBT) CEO Yuping Huang said that the company continued to make progress in growing commercial traction in the second quarter, but the industry is still focused on reaching technology milestones. Second quarter revenue totaled approximately $61,000, compared to $183,000 in the same period a year ago. The company reported a net loss of $36.5 million, or $0.26 per share. In Q2 2024, Quantum Computing posted a net loss of $5.2 million, or $0.06 per share. Quantum Computing stock fell 2.3% after hours in what's been a whipsaw year for quantum stocks. In June, the stock spiked 25% in one day after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said quantum computing "is reaching an inflection point." But the industry is still in its infancy. The other big quantum player, Rigetti Computing (RGTI), reported a technology breakthrough in its recent results but also big losses. "We are talking of a market that's hundreds of billions of dollars a decade or two from now," Rigetti CEO Subodh Kulkarni told Market Domination Overtime. "But right now, we are clearly in the R&D stage. We clearly need to perfect the technology to get to that big milestone in about four years, which we call quantum advantage." Read more about quantum computing here. Quantum Computing (QUBT) CEO Yuping Huang said that the company continued to make progress in growing commercial traction in the second quarter, but the industry is still focused on reaching technology milestones. Second quarter revenue totaled approximately $61,000, compared to $183,000 in the same period a year ago. The company reported a net loss of $36.5 million, or $0.26 per share. In Q2 2024, Quantum Computing posted a net loss of $5.2 million, or $0.06 per share. Quantum Computing stock fell 2.3% after hours in what's been a whipsaw year for quantum stocks. In June, the stock spiked 25% in one day after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said quantum computing "is reaching an inflection point." But the industry is still in its infancy. The other big quantum player, Rigetti Computing (RGTI), reported a technology breakthrough in its recent results but also big losses. "We are talking of a market that's hundreds of billions of dollars a decade or two from now," Rigetti CEO Subodh Kulkarni told Market Domination Overtime. "But right now, we are clearly in the R&D stage. We clearly need to perfect the technology to get to that big milestone in about four years, which we call quantum advantage." Read more about quantum computing here. Applied Materials stock sinks as policy uncertainty weighs on Q4 guidance Applied Materials (AMAT) recorded an earnings beat for the July quarter but said that the "dynamic" policy environment is creating uncertainty for the business. That led the chip equipment maker to issue a revenue forecast of $6.7 billion for the fourth quarter, below what the Street was expecting. 'We are expecting a decline in revenue in the fourth quarter driven by both digestion of capacity in China and nonlinear demand from leading-edge customers given market concentration and fab timing,' CFO Brice Hill said. 'We are navigating and adapting to the near-term uncertainties by leveraging our robust supply chain, global manufacturing footprint and deep customer relationships.' The company, whose clients include Taiwan Semiconductor and Intel, posted record revenue of $7.30 billion in Q3, up 8% year over year, surpassing estimates for $7.2 billion. Earnings per share of $2.48 also beat estimates by $0.12. Applied Materials stock fell 11% in after-hours trading. Read more here. Applied Materials (AMAT) recorded an earnings beat for the July quarter but said that the "dynamic" policy environment is creating uncertainty for the business. That led the chip equipment maker to issue a revenue forecast of $6.7 billion for the fourth quarter, below what the Street was expecting. 'We are expecting a decline in revenue in the fourth quarter driven by both digestion of capacity in China and nonlinear demand from leading-edge customers given market concentration and fab timing,' CFO Brice Hill said. 'We are navigating and adapting to the near-term uncertainties by leveraging our robust supply chain, global manufacturing footprint and deep customer relationships.' The company, whose clients include Taiwan Semiconductor and Intel, posted record revenue of $7.30 billion in Q3, up 8% year over year, surpassing estimates for $7.2 billion. Earnings per share of $2.48 also beat estimates by $0.12. Applied Materials stock fell 11% in after-hours trading. Read more here. Earnings and revenue beats lift Dillard's stock Dillard's (DDS) stock rose 7% on Thursday after the department store chain reported revenue and profit beats for the quarter. Net income fell to $72.8 million compared to $74.5 million a year ago, but earnings per share rose $0.07 year over year after the Arkansas-based company bought back stock. Revenue of $1.53 billion beat Wall Street estimates of $1.52 billion, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Earnings per share of $4.66 also topped estimates of $4.00 per share. Total retail sales were flat, with strength in juniors' and children's apparel as well as ladies' accessories and lingerie. The weakest performing category was home and furniture. Other major retailers, including Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Macy's (M), will report second quarter results in the coming weeks, providing a more in-depth look into consumer spending habits. Dillard's stock is up 23% year to date. It has climbed 78% since its April 8 low. Dillard's (DDS) stock rose 7% on Thursday after the department store chain reported revenue and profit beats for the quarter. Net income fell to $72.8 million compared to $74.5 million a year ago, but earnings per share rose $0.07 year over year after the Arkansas-based company bought back stock. Revenue of $1.53 billion beat Wall Street estimates of $1.52 billion, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Earnings per share of $4.66 also topped estimates of $4.00 per share. Total retail sales were flat, with strength in juniors' and children's apparel as well as ladies' accessories and lingerie. The weakest performing category was home and furniture. Other major retailers, including Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Macy's (M), will report second quarter results in the coming weeks, providing a more in-depth look into consumer spending habits. Dillard's stock is up 23% year to date. It has climbed 78% since its April 8 low. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
