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The selloff pushed Treasury yields on most tenors two to four basis points higher as of early afternoon in New York, with the benchmark 10-year's trading at 4.4%. Interest-rate swaps showed traders slightly pared bets on Fed rate cuts. They are now pricing in 42 basis points of reductions by the end of the year, with the first full cut coming by the October meeting.
'The bottom line is that the Fed can't credibly cut rates with an unemployment rate of 4.1%,' said George Catrambone, head of fixed income, DWS Americas. 'There is a glass ceiling on how high yields can push out of their current range with a Fed that's frozen in place.'
Data released Thursday showed initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 217,000 in the week ended July 19, the lowest since mid-April. The six weeks of declines is the longest such stretch since 2022.
'The labor market deterioration has slowed or stopped, with the caveat the labor supply, immigration, negative data revisions are making reading the labor market data tricky,' said Ed Al-Hussainy, rates strategist at Columbia Threadneedle Investment.
Market expectations of rate cuts starting from late September, 'may be off the table if unemployment is unchanged next week,' he said.
European government bonds also stumbled Thursday after the European Central Bank tempered expectations of a possible interest rate cut in September.
Investors were already turning broadly more risk-on amid deals between the US and its trading partners. The European Union and the US are progressing toward an agreement that would set a 15% tariff for most imports, according to diplomats briefed on the negotiations.
Another pressure point for traders is a dispute between President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over construction works, which the president has criticized for cost overruns.
Last week, Trump has said that he didn't plan to fire Powell before the end of his term. Trump was set for a tour later Thursday of the $2.5 billion renovation of the central bank's headquarters.
'The mounting risk of the Fed being seen as acting more on a political than a fundamental level is a sizable threat to long-end rates over the medium term,' Rabobank strategists wrote in a note.
Earlier on Thursday, a $21 billion auction of 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities drew solid demand.
--With assistance from Naomi Tajitsu.
(Updates prices in second paragraph, adds strategist quote.)
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Spotify hit a record high of $738.45 earlier this month, but shares slid to around $635 immediately following the results. Spotify reported second quarter revenue of €4.19 billion ($4.86 billion), missing analyst expectations of €4.27 billion, though up from €3.81 billion in the same period last year. The company posted an adjusted loss of €0.42 ($0.49) per share, sharply missing forecasts for a profit of €1.97 and down from earnings of €1.33 in Q2 2024. "Outsized currency movements during the quarter impacted reported revenue by €104 million vs. guidance," the company said in the earnings release. Operating income also fell short of expectations in the quarter, though subscriber metrics for both premium and ad-supported tiers came in ahead of estimates. Gross margins of 31.5% came in as expected. Spotify's massive rally heading into the earnings report was fueled by a sweeping business overhaul, including layoffs, leadership changes, and a pullback from costly podcast exclusivity. After spending $1 billion to build out its podcast business, the company has since scaled back and narrowed its focus. Still, it remains committed to the medium, paying over $100 million to creators in Q1 alone, including high-profile names like Joe Rogan and Alex Cooper. Read more here. Spotify (SPOT) shares fell as much as 10% in early premarket trading Tuesday after the company missed second quarter earnings and revenue expectations. The results follow a remarkable 120% rally over the past year, as the stock rebounded from 2022 lows on the back of price hikes, cost cuts, and investor enthusiasm for AI and advertising. Spotify hit a record high of $738.45 earlier this month, but shares slid to around $635 immediately following the results. Spotify reported second quarter revenue of €4.19 billion ($4.86 billion), missing analyst expectations of €4.27 billion, though up from €3.81 billion in the same period last year. The company posted an adjusted loss of €0.42 ($0.49) per share, sharply missing forecasts for a profit of €1.97 and down from earnings of €1.33 in Q2 2024. "Outsized currency movements during the quarter impacted reported revenue by €104 million vs. guidance," the company said in the earnings release. Operating income also fell short of expectations in the quarter, though subscriber metrics for both premium and ad-supported tiers came in ahead of estimates. Gross margins of 31.5% came in as expected. Spotify's massive rally heading into the earnings report was fueled by a sweeping business overhaul, including layoffs, leadership changes, and a pullback from costly podcast exclusivity. After spending $1 billion to build out its podcast business, the company has since scaled back and narrowed its focus. Still, it remains committed to the medium, paying over $100 million to creators in Q1 alone, including high-profile names like Joe Rogan and Alex Cooper. Read more here. UnitedHealth stock slips after mixed Q2 results Shares of UnitedHealth Group (UNH) fell nearly 3% after its quarterly results before the bell painted a mixed picture. Yahoo Finance's Anjalee Khemlani reports: Read more here. Shares of UnitedHealth Group (UNH) fell nearly 3% after its quarterly results before the bell painted a mixed picture. Yahoo Finance's Anjalee Khemlani reports: Read more here. Sarepta stock rockets higher after FDA greenlight Shares in drugmaker Sarepta (SRPT) rocketed up over 30% in premarket after the embattled company got the FDA's go-ahead to resume shipments of its Elevdis gene therapy. The greenlight comes after Sarepta put a voluntary pause on shipments for some patients while the US regulator reviewed its safety following deaths. The FDA on Monday recommended that the compa lift that halt. Sarepta's stock is poised to build on a 16% gain on Monday, continuing a recent volatile spell triggered by changing fortunes for its best-selling product. AP reports: Read more here. Shares in drugmaker Sarepta (SRPT) rocketed up over 30% in premarket after the embattled company got the FDA's go-ahead to resume shipments of its Elevdis gene therapy. The greenlight comes after Sarepta put a voluntary pause on shipments for some patients while the US regulator reviewed its safety following deaths. The FDA on Monday recommended that the compa lift that halt. Sarepta's stock is poised to build on a 16% gain on Monday, continuing a recent volatile spell triggered by changing fortunes for its best-selling product. AP reports: Read more here. Nvidia orders 300,000 H20 chips from TSMC to satiate Chinese demand Reuters reports: Nvidia placed orders for 300,000 H20 chipsets with contract manufacturer TSMC last week, two sources said, with one of them adding that strong Chinese demand had led the U.S. firm to change its mind about just relying on its existing stockpile. Read more here. Reuters reports: Nvidia placed orders for 300,000 H20 chipsets with contract manufacturer TSMC last week, two sources said, with one of them adding that strong Chinese demand had led the U.S. firm to change its mind about just relying on its existing stockpile. Read more here. Oil maintains gains with tariffs and OPEC+ supply in sight Oil maintained gains following Trump putting pressure on Russia over the war in Ukraine with economic sanctions against Putin's government on the table. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Oil maintained gains following Trump putting pressure on Russia over the war in Ukraine with economic sanctions against Putin's government on the table. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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Surging US imports and lower tariffs to lift global growth, IMF predicts
Global economic growth will be stronger than previously thought, as US imports surged and some of President Donald Trump's tariff rates have been softened since April, new projections show. Global growth is forecast to be 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest World Economic Outlook. This is higher than the respective 2.8% and 3% forecast in the previous report in April. UK gross domestic product (GDP) is predicted to be 1.2% this year, and 1.4% in 2026, unchanged from revised forecasts set out in May. The upgrade to the world outlook reflects factors including a strong degree of trade 'front-loading' in recent months – referring to a rush of imports into the US. This has happened as businesses and households tried to get ahead of planned increases to US tariff rates, following Mr Trump's 'liberation day' announcements in April, according to the report. The IMF said front-loading had 'shaped economic activity in the first half of the year', adding that it was 'creating exposures that could amplify the impact of any potential negative shocks'. For example, firms could end up having too much stock, therefore pushing down future imports, or it could lead to additional holding costs or the risk of items becoming obsolete. Meanwhile, the growth upgrade since April was also driven by US tariffs being lowered since higher rates were first announced by Mr Trump, alongside improved conditions in the financial markets. This came after the US struck new trade deals, including with the UK and, most recently, the EU. The introduction of some higher tariff rates have also been paused until August, notably between China and the US, helping diffuse escalating trade tensions and open the door to negotiations. However, the IMF warned that a 'rebound in effective tariff rates could lead to weaker growth' and weigh on wider sentiment. 'Elevated uncertainty could start weighing more heavily on activity, also as deadlines for additional tariffs expire without progress on substantial, permanent agreements,' the report said. Furthermore, the IMF flagged conflict in the Middle East creating potential risks to global shipping and trade, which could further raise commodity prices like oil. On the other hand, the report found that global growth could be lifted if trade negotiations lead to lower tariffs, ease tensions, and create more certainty and predictability. The IMF also highlighted technological advancements, including the use of artificial intelligence (AI), as a way to further boost growth around the world. Chancellor Rachel Reeves said: 'The IMF's forecasts show that the UK remains the fastest growing European economy in the G7 despite the global economic challenges we are facing. 'However, I am determined to unlock Britain's full potential, which is why we are investing billions of pounds through our plan for change – in jobs through better city region transport, record funding for affordable homes, as well as backing major projects like Sizewell C to drive economic growth and put more money into people's pockets.' Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
