Is Tigers' bullpen good enough for World Series run? These stats say yes

USA Today

5 hours ago

Many of the Detroit Tigers' greatest teams have featured tremendous relief corps.
The 1968 World Series-winning Tigers got a 2.26 ERA from their relievers – the second-best bullpen ERA in franchise history (at least since ERA became an official stat in 1913) and tops in the American League that season – behind a 1.49 mark from second-year swingman Pat Dobson in 60⅓ innings and a 2.32 ERA from John Hiller (in 50⅓ innings). Even lefty ace Mickey Lolich got into the act, with a 1.59 ERA in 17 innings over seven relief appearances.
The 1984 World Series-winning Tigers likewise led the AL with their 2.74 ERA (fourth-best in franchise history) behind, of course, left-hander Willie Hernandez (1.92 ERA in 140⅓ innings en route to the AL Cy Young Award) and right-hander Aurelio López (2.94 ERA in 137⅔ innings).
Even the 2006 Tigers, who made the World Series with a frisky 3.55 bullpen ERA – second in the AL that year – behind rookie Joel Zumaya's electric 1.94 ERA in 80⅓ innings, could point to the 'pen as a strength.
And then you have the 2025 Tigers.
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Look, there are still 36 games left this season to change the narrative, starting with the Tigers' game against the Houston Astros on Monday, Aug. 18. But the bullpen has been, well … <'Not Great Bob.gif> – at least by ERA.
Despite a nearly flawless road trip, Tigers relievers enter those final 36 games with a 4.04 ERA, good for 17th out of 30 MLB teams.
That's still ahead of four likely postseason contenders: the Toronto Blue Jays (18th at 4.07), the LA Dodgers (20th, at 4.19), the New York Yankees (21st at 4.21) and the Philadelphia Phillies (22nd at 4.23 – a Dave Dombrowski bullpen ranking in the bottom 10? I'm shocked!).
But it's not exactly reassuring, either. Potential ALDS (or wild-card round) opponent Boston (third overall, at 3.44), Seattle (seventh, at 3.66) and Houston (10th, at 3.75) all loom in MLB's top 10 for bullpen ERA.
So, you might ask: Is the Tigers' bullpen strong enough to make a World Series run?
Again, there are still plenty of games to play, and plenty of chances for the Tigers to clean up their statistical résumé before the postseason.
After all, when I started compiling the numbers for this piece, before the Tigers' loss to the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday, Aug. 12, the Tigers bullpen had a 4.16 ERA, which ranked 19th. At the end of that game, after Tigers relievers allowed three earned runs in 3⅔ innings (did we mention 'P. U.?'), that ERA was up to 4.18 – still 19th in MLB, imperceptibly ahead of Miami's 4.18 by a lone extra out.
But since then? Eight Tigers relievers have appeared and not allowed an earned run, over a 16-inning span, to drop the Tigers' bullpen ERA to 4.04. (Left-hander Tyler Holton is the only Tigers reliever to allow a run at all since Tuesday; it scored on his own catching error in the win over the Minnesota Twins on Saturday, Aug. 16.) That ERA is still in the bottom half of the majors – the league average for relievers is 4.09 after Sunday's games – but still more than a tenth of a run better than it was, and much closer to No. 16 Cincinnati (3.96) than still-No. 19 Miami (4.13).
The answer to the Tigers' bullpen issues is clear: They should hire me to write about said relievers full-time.
But barring that … well, Tigers relievers are probably going to give up runs again sometime this season, and probably in bunches. This is the nature of baseball: Even the greatest bullpen in MLB's wild-card era – the 2003 LA Dodgers, led by closer, French-Canadian and eventual National League Cy Young winner Eric Gagné – got shelled at times. Those Dodgers posted a 2.46 bullpen ERA over the full season, but had a bullpen ERA (3.55) more than a run higher over their final 36 games. (Well, not Gagné – his ERA over the final 36 was 0.00; he gave up his final earned run that season in Game 125, on Aug. 20, then made 15 more appearances.)
Of course, those Dodgers didn't even make the postseason; they finished seventh in an NL that only sent four teams to the playoffs at the time. The Tigers, meanwhile, seem all but incapable of missing the postseason, with playoff odds that range from 98.5%-99.6%.
We can argue, thus, that theirs is a bullpen strong enough, at least, for postseason play. But is it strong enough to carry them into the World Series – and perhaps to the franchise's first title since 1984? We won't go back that far, but let's check out how they compare to the previous 20 World Series champs and runners-up – 40 pennant winners in all – in three key categories.
(All stats through Sunday's games.)
ERA? Not great!
The Tigers' 4.04 bullpen ERA is well off the average ERA of our 40 pennant winners, which came in at 3.65. Series winners averaged a 3.61 bullpen ERA, while series losers averaged a 3.69 ERA. Even within their own seasons, pennant winners tended to have top-10 bullpens; their average rank was 10.2 – another knock on the No. 17 Tigers.
Of course, within any group there will always be outliers – the ones that make you feel a bit better about the Tigers' chances – and that's certainly true here. While the Tigers' 4.04 mark would be better than just four of the past 20 World Series winners, one such team they have the edge on should be fairly easy to remember: The 2023 Texas Rangers, who took a gaudy 4.77 ERA (24th that season) into the postseason before riding a hot offense and a marginally improved bullpen (4.08 postseason ERA) to a crown. Of course, they also faced one of the worst bullpens from a World Series loser, as the Arizona Diamondbacks took a 4.22 bullpen ERA into the playoffs.
Two other Series winners should be pretty familiar to at least one Tiger: Manager A.J. Hinch, who won the 2017 World Series with the Astros despite the third-worst bullpen ERA of the past 20 champs. Those 'Stros had a 4.27 mark which ranked 17th that season, far worse than their opponent in the Series, the Dodgers, at 3.38 and fourth in the majors.
Then there was Hinch's final season in Houston, which ended with a loss to the worst pennant-winning bullpen of the past 20 seasons: The 2019 Washington Nationals, who in 500⅔ innings had a 5.68 ERA – ranking 29th, half a run worse than No. 28 Colorado. If your pitchers are worse than the Rockies' crew in any season, you've really hit a new low. And yet, in the World Series, the Nats bullpen got it to a manageable 4.03 ERA to take the Series in seven games.
Actually, those Nats had the worst championship bullpen – ever. That 5.68 regular-season ERA was more than half a run worse than the next worse squad, the 1987 Twins (5.11). (The '87 Twins, of course, used just four relievers in the ALCS – accounting for a 2.25 ERA over 16 innings – to beat the Tigers en route to their Series win.)
Other notably woeful Series winning bullpens: The 1935 Tigers, who had a 4.04 ERA (though that ranked fifth among 16 teams) ahead of the franchise's first World Series title, and the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals, whose bullpen had a 4.06 ERA (14th in the majors) during the regular season then posted a 1.00 ERA in nine innings of a five-game World Series victory over the Tigers.
Then again, ERA isn't always the greatest measure of bullpen production. There's also …
Save percentage? Getting better!
A run given up by a reliever in the sixth inning of a blowout loss can mean a lot less than one by a closer in the ninth inning of a nail-biter. The good news for the Tigers: They've been among MLB's best this season at closing the door on close wins, once they get the lead. Tigers relievers have converted 68% (34-for-50) of save situations, sixth out of 30 teams in 2025. That mark would put the Tigers 25th among our 40 pennant winners, whose average save percentage was 69.2%. But just two of the past eight World Series winners have had a better save percentage – the 2022 Astros, at 76.8% and the 2018 Red Sox, at 69.7%.
And, of course, both the Tigers' 2006 and '12 Series losers had better save percentages than the current iteration: The '06 Tigers entered the postseason having converted 74.2% of their save chances, only to lose to a Cards team at 66.7%, while the '12 Tigers hit the playoffs at 71.4% before falling to the 2012 Giants at 79.1%.
Those closers are the stars, though. They (generally) can't get their saves if the guys in the middle didn't pick up the starters (and their fellow relievers) beforehand. And so we have one final stat to examine.
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Odds and evens
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Inherited runners? Lock 'em down!
The entire goal of pitching, of course, is to prevent runs, and that includes the ones on base when relievers enter. And by one measure, the Tigers are among MLB's best; just 27.4% of Tigers relievers' inherited runners – 52 of 190 – have scored in 2025, good for sixth in the majors, and well under the league average of 31.6%. (Your top Tiger at not allowing runners to score, among the seven with at least 10 inherited runners? Right-hander Tommy Kahnle, at just two of 20.) That 27.4% is better than each of the past nine World Series winners – including, you could probably guess, the woeful 2019 Nationals relievers, who allowed 41.6% of inherited runners to score in the regular season, then just two of nine (22.2%) in the Series against the 'Stros (sorry, A.J.) – while all 20 Series winners averaged 30%.
Of note in our 40-pennant group: Both the Tigers' 2006 and '12 Series losers had worse inherited-runner-score percentages than the current iteration, with the '06 Tigers checking in at a 37.4% that's second-worst among all 40. The '12 squad, meanwhile, hit the postseason at 31.1% and then allowed just two of nine inherited runners to score in their four-game sweep by the Giants.
All of which brings us back to our big question: Is the Tigers' bullpen good enough for the World Series?
Well, we probably don't know right now – and we might not know until November, either.