Gilbert: Tony Evers' exit makes for a rare, truly open governor's race

Yahoo

25-07-2025

Democrat Tony Evers' decision not to seek a third term means Wisconsin voters will experience something unusual in this political era — a truly 'open' race for governor.
Nine of the past 10 gubernatorial contests in this state have involved a sitting governor.
Now we know that the 2026 election will not.
That makes the next campaign for governor more open-ended than it would have been, and harder to handicap.
It also means there's a possibility both parties will have costly and hotly contested primaries for the state's highest office.
Evers' decision not only alters the nature of the general election contest, but it also means the governor's race could serve as a platform for Democrats to debate their future in the aftermath of the party's momentous national defeat last year to Donald Trump and the GOP.
For Democrats, a defeat for governor in 2026 in the nation's closest state would be hugely demoralizing. It also would be a major political failure, given the political advantage typically enjoyed in a midterm election by the party that is out of power in Washington.
On the other hand, from a historical perspective, a Democratic victory would be groundbreaking.
Coming as it would after Evers' two terms in office, it would produce the Democratic Party's longest hold on the governor's office in Wisconsin's nearly 180-year existence.
Incredible as it sounds, Democrats have never occupied the office of governor for more than eight years in a row in Wisconsin.
That is a testimony to several things: the dominance of the GOP in the state's first 100 years; the fact that until the 1970s, elections for governor here occurred every two years, not four; and the state's penchant for political swings in the current era of partisan parity and polarization.
Let's look a little more closely at the history of governors' races here to put 2026 into some very broad perspective.
Democrats have only once won three gubernatorial elections in a row in Wisconsin. It happened in the late 1950s and early 1960s when governors served two-year terms: Gaylord Nelson won in 1958 and 1960 and John Reynolds won in 1962.
By contrast, Republicans have a history of longevity in power.
There have been eight three-term Republican governors in Wisconsin's history, though only Tommy Thompson has done it since the four-year term was instituted beginning with the 1970 election. Thompson is the state's longest-serving governor (just over 14 years, from 1987 to 2001) and the only one to win four elections in a row.
Only one other politician has tried to win three four-year terms, Republican Scott Walker, but he lost his bid for a third term to Evers in 2018.
That Walker defeat illustrates some of the challenges a party faces staying in power in the current era.
There is voter fatigue, which caught up with Walker after a drama-filled eight years, including a polarizing recall fight in 2014 and the failed bid he launched for the presidency in 2015.
There is the cyclical nature of modern politics. Wisconsin has a history in mid-terms of voting against the party of the president, which worked against Republicans in 2002, against Democrats in 2010, and against Republicans in 2018. (Evers broke this pattern in 2022). In other words, America's frequent presidential swings have also produced frequent mid-term swings at the state level here.
And finally, there is the state's extreme competitiveness. It was easier for a single party to stay in power when Wisconsin was dominated by one party.
Since Wisconsin became a state in 1848, the governor's office has been held by four different parties: Republican, Democratic, Whig, and Progressive. But Republicans have been dominant for most of that history, at one point (between 1857 and 1930) winning 34 out of 37 contests for governor.
Republicans have never been shut out of the governor's office for more than eight years in a row (a streak now in jeopardy). And there have been five different periods when Republicans held the office of governor for longer than eight years:
∎ 1987-2001, the Tommy Thompson era. It only ended when Thompson left office halfway through his fourth term to be health secretary under President George W. Bush. His lieutenant governor, Scott McCallum, filled the remainder of that term before losing the 2002 election to Democrat Jim Doyle.
∎ 1943-1959, when four different GOP governors served and Republicans won seven elections in a row for governor (again, these were two-year terms).
∎ 1895-1933. This was the longest period of Republican governance. Ten different Republican governors served, including both Fighting Bob La Follette and his son Philip. The GOP won 19 consecutive elections for governor.
∎ 1876-1891.
∎ 1856-1874.
That history of lopsided control is long gone in Wisconsin, replaced not only by frequent partisan swings but also by routinely close elections. The past two races for governor have been the two closest of the past 60 years.
The fact that this is now an open-seat race, without a sitting governor on the ballot, adds to the suspense.
The last time this happened was 2010, when Walker was first elected.
But the last time before that was more than 40 years ago in 1982.
Evers would have been a formidable candidate for re-election as the most popular politician in the state, according to polling by the Marquette Law School. At the same time, his age (73) and the challenges of winning a third term were potential election wild cards.
Without Evers on the ballot, this race will still be hugely influenced by the national political climate next year and by public opinion toward Trump. Democrats will still go into this race with the historic advantage of running against the party of the president.
But historical patterns don't dictate the outcomes of elections; they just put them in context.
Candidate quality matters. And in 2026, that is now a big unknown for both sides.
Craig Gilbert provides Wisconsin political analysis as a fellow with Marquette University Law School's Lubar Center for Public Policy Research and Civic Education. Prior to the fellowship, Gilbert reported on politics for 35 years at the Journal Sentinel, the last 25 in its Washington Bureau. His column continues that independent reporting tradition and goes through the established Journal Sentinel editing process.Follow him on Twitter: @Wisvoter.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Gilbert: Tony Evers' exit makes for a rare, truly open governor's race