Trump tariffs a 'slow burn' for Wall Street, likely to hit US economy hard
Investors and policymakers alike would do well to remember that just because the storm isn't here yet doesn't mean it isn't coming, says Zoya Najeeb in an opinion piece in One World Outlook.
"While Wall Street pours champagne over record-high stock indexes, the US economy is quietly swallowing a bitter pill: tariffs. The same markets that panicked in April are now shrugging at the reality of a new trade regime - one that could be far costlier than investors seem willing to admit," the article highlighted.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt recently cheered $29 billion in tariff revenue collected in July, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick predicting $50 billion a month soon.
"But tariffs are taxes by another name, and this is a tax hike on Americans at a time when the bottom half of the income ladder is already straining," according to the write-up.
Caterpillar Inc., an American construction, mining and other engineering equipment manufacturer, estimates the new tariffs will cost it up to $1.5 billion this year - half a billion in the current quarter alone.
"Yet its stock barely flinched, thanks to investor faith in unrelated booms in AI data centres and infrastructure spending. It's a neat metaphor for today's K-shaped economy: Wall Street soars while Main Street watches grocery bills spike and more households turn to 'buy now, pay later' plans just to make ends meet," the report highlighted.
The AI gold rush may be propping up the stock indexes, but strip out tech and the S&P 500 is flat.
"Even Warren Buffett - hardly a doomsayer - has been quietly selling for 11 straight quarters, amassing a $344 billion war chest to deploy when prices fall. He's betting on a downturn, even if the rest of the market isn't," said the report.
In the meantime, former US House Speaker Paul Ryan has warned that "choppy waters are ahead because I think they're (tariffs) going to have some legal challenges."
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Indian Express
8 minutes ago
- Indian Express
‘No one will purchase': Andhra shrimp farmers fear they could get priced out of US market
Andhra Pradesh's shrimp farmers are bracing for the impact of US tariffs that will touch 59.72% after US President Donald Trump announced 25% additional tariffs over and above the 25% announced earlier, as well as the 5.76% countervailing duty and 3.96% anti-dumping duty. 'If the US decides to go ahead with the additional 25% tariffs, many shrimp farmers will be forced to close down or cultivate other species that do not yield such high profits,' said S Lal Mohammad, joint director (aquaculture) of the Andhra Pradesh Fisheries Department. 'Medium and big farmers produce larger shrimp, known as 30-count or 40-count, referring to the number of shrimps per kilogramme. About 90% of the large shrimp are exported to the US and sell for Rs 350-400 per kg. Due to the heavy tariffs, exporters will avoid purchasing these,' he explained. India's seafood exports in 2024-25 reached $7.38 billion, amounting to 1.78 million metric tonnes. Shrimp formed the most significant component, accounting for 92% of India's seafood exports, and the US market alone accounted for over 40% of India's total shrimp exports. With extra tariffs being imposed, farmers would likely move towards growing smaller shrimp, such as the 100-count variety that sells for around Rs 220-230 per kg, which are generally not sent to the US, said Mohammad. Unless the tariff issue is resolved immediately, the whole sector will come to a standstill, secretary (Andhra Pradesh region) of the Seafood Exporters Association of India, D Dileep, said. 'We are talking of closure of operations of not only aqua ponds and farms, but also of hatcheries, shrimp processing units, packaging units, cold storages, and ice factories,' he said. Bracing for impact According to the government, there are around 6.5 lakh aquafarmers in Andhra Pradesh, and Dileep said that apart from them, around 30-40 lakh others involved at various stages of the industry could also face a dent to their livelihoods. He called on the state government to announce a package to help the industry absorb the impact. Andhra Pradesh produces sixty per cent of India's shrimp export. 'The US is a predominantly premium market. We supply to all its major super stores, and 40% of the shrimp in those stores are from Andhra Pradesh,' Dileep said. While the bulk of shrimp is exported from Andhra Pradesh, the other major supplier, Odisha, is similarly preparing for rough weather ahead. While Odisha exports seafoods, particularly shrimp, worth Rs 2,000 crore annually, over 30% consignments go to the US, industry sources said. Tara Ranjan Patnaik, chairman of Falcon Marine Exports, said the supply chain is already showing signs of disruption. The sector generates direct and indirect employment for around 15 lakh people in Odisha. Dileep pointed out that apart from the tariffs, the aquaculture industry is also facing particularly stiff competition from Ecuador, which is eating into India's share in the US market and is the other major supplied of shrimp to the country, apart from Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand. 'Ecuador is nearer to the US, and the tariffs are only about 15%. It enjoys a huge advantage in terms of pricing, and it will be difficult for us to regain the US market if we lose out now,' Dileep said. Of the 241 aquaculture exporters in the country, 171 are based in Andhra Pradesh. The owner of Bhimavaram-based Pramadha Marine Exports Limited, Y Prasada Rao, said that due to various tariffs, most exporters are already operating at a 5-6% profit margin. 'Only the large exporters with big brand value operate with 10% margins. The rest get 5-6% profits. Only about 20% of aqua product exporters are able to export to the US, and the rest export to the EU, China, Russia, Vietnam, etc. With this increase in tariffs, the cost of products increases drastically. No one in the US market will purchase Indian aqua products at such prices. Due to this, exporters are facing tremendous losses. All operations are at a standstill,' Rao said. 'If we have to continue exporting, the entire burden has to be passed on to the aquafarmer. We have to purchase shrimp at reduced rates to offset the tariffs. Today, the situation is such that no exporter is willing to pay Rs 260 per kg for the small 100-count shrimp. All exporters have stopped purchases or taking orders till August 11, or at least till the issue is resolved and there is clarity,'' Rao said. An official of the Seafood Exporters Association of India stated that, as exporters are forced to increase prices, shrimp and other aqua products from India would become more expensive than those from competing countries. 'To put it simply, a shipping container with Rs 2 crore worth of aqua products will be charged more than Rs 1 crore in tariffs, increasing cost drastically. No buyer will purchase that, especially when other countries like Vietnam with lower tariffs can export,' said Venkata Kishore of SJ Marine Exports. Awaiting clarity Harsha Raju, a medium-level farmer and partner in Kolleru Aqua Farm in Eluru, said that since April, there has been a crop holiday situation. 'When the tariffs were announced first in April, it was a big blow to all aqua farmers. Traders and exporters are not offering good rates because they are taking the tariffs into consideration. We invest up to Rs 6 lakh per crop for shrimp, and if we do not get back even the investment, it is a huge loss. Right now, there is a crop holiday. We are all waiting for more clarity, and keeping an eye on what the Centre and state government do,' Raju said. Vice chairman of Andhra Pradesh's State Aquaculture Development Authority, Anam Venkata Ramana Reddy, said the state government is exploring various options to help aquafarmers. He said that about 6.5 lakh aquafarmers cultivate various sizes of shrimp, fish like catla, rohu, and seabass, as well as crabs. 'In 2023-24, aquaculture in Andhra Pradesh was cultivated in 5.7 lakh acres, out of which approximately 3 lakh acres were only for shrimp. As many as 8-10 lakh tonnes of shrimp and fish products were produced. Erstwhile undivided districts of Krishna, East Godavari and West Godavari account for 60% of the production,' Reddy said. 'We are holding discussions with aquafarmers on how to help them absorb the blow. Some farmers will stop cultivating the export variety and go for smaller shrimp, which will bring fewer profits. We are also looking at increasing exports to the European Union and Russia. We are encouraging domestic consumption, not only in Andhra Pradesh but also in other states,' Reddy said. Andhra Pradesh is also setting up the AP Prawn Producers Company, which will purchase shrimp from farmers and market it in smaller packets, like 50 gram and multiples of that, aimed at all income groups. 'The 50-gram packet will cost about Rs 50 and will have eight-nine pieces. It is affordable considering the increasing price of eggs,' Mohammad said. Anticipating the tough times ahead, Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu had in April written to the Centre to shield the state's aquaculture products and aqua sector from the heavy tariffs being levied by the Trump administration. And earlier this month, he said at an event, 'My government is providing support to aqua farmers by providing them electricity at Rs 1.50 per unit. The increase in tariffs by the US will burden aqua farmers in the state. We have taken it into consideration, and we act on it.'
Hindustan Times
10 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
PM Narendra Modi says economy strong, seeks self-reliance in tech
India is the world's fastest-growing major economy and is rapidly moving towards becoming a global leader, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in Bengaluru on Saturday, days after US President Donald Trump described the country's economy as 'dead' amid escalating trade tensions between the two nations. PM Narendra Modi with Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah, deputy CM DK Shivakumar, and Union minister Manohar Lal during a Metro ride in Bengaluru on Sunday. (ANI) Addressing a public gathering after inaugurating the 19-kilometre Yellow Line of the Bengaluru Metro, Modi said India was on track to become one of the world's top three economies as he credited the country's economic momentum to the central government's 'reform, perform, transform' approach. 'India is currently the fastest-growing major economy in the world. In the past eleven years, India's economy has risen from the 10th position to the top five globally and is rapidly progressing towards becoming one of the top three economies,' he said. The PM's endorsement of the country's economic growth came after Trump, on July 30, announced 25% punitive tariffs on Indian goods entering America for purchasing Russian oil. A day later he again targeted India, saying, 'I don't care what India does with Russia… They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care.' On August 6, he signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods. India has called the American actions 'unfair, unjustified and unreasonable' and said it will take all actions necessary to protect its national interests. In his address, Modi also called for the country to accelerate its self-reliance in the technology sector as he pressed for a stronger 'Tech Atmanirbhar Bharat'. 'Indian tech companies have made their mark on the global stage. They have built software and products for the world. The time has come to give greater priority to the needs of India. We must move forward in manufacturing new products,' he said. The statement was in line with his August 2 remarks in which he called on citizens to adopt the spirit of 'swadeshi' and support locally made products, stressing that true service to the nation lies in promoting indigenous goods amid global economic uncertainties. The additional 25% tariffs, due to take effect on August 27, will put Indian exporters at a significant disadvantage compared to their rivals in Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam – which face tariffs of between 19% and 20%. In his speech, Modi said that the country's rapid pace of development was linked to its economic growth as he focused on the rise of the country's exports. 'Before 2014, India's total export was $468 billion, but today it is $824 billion. We used to import mobile phones but now we are among the top five exporters of mobile handsets. Our electronic export before 2014 was $6 billion, which has gone up to $38 billion dollars,' Modi said. He added: 'These achievements give strength to our concept of Atmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India). We will march together and build a developed India.' Karnataka chief minister Siddaramaiah, deputy chief minister DK Shivakumar, Union ministers Manohar Lal Khattar and Ashwini Vaishnaw were also present on the occasion. During his visit, the PM also laid the foundation stone for the Bangalore Metro Phase-3 project and flagged off three Vande Bharat Express trains as he underscored the country's growing infrastructure footprint across sectors by highlighting the increase in the number of metro rail services, railway lines, airports, AIIMS and IITs. This was the first time Modi visited Bengaluru since Operation Sindoor, India's military action against terror hubs in Pakistan and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) in retaliation to April's Pahalgam attack, in which 26 civilians were killed. Modi credited the success of the operation to indigenous defence technologies. 'A key factor in the operation's success was 'Make in India' in defence, which had immense contribution from the youth of Karnataka and Bengaluru,' he said. I congratulate the youth of this state,' he said, adding that Pakistan, which 'came to defend the terrorists', was forced 'to its knees' within hours. Praising the city's global standing, he called Bengaluru 'a city that has become a symbol of the rise of the new India… A city that has put India's flag on the global IT map. If there is anything behind Bangalore's success story, it is the hard work and talent of its people.' Siddaramaiah, who spoke before Modisaid the state has been spending more than the Centre on Bengaluru's metro network, even though the project is meant to be jointly funded. 'Works for the Bengaluru Metro started in 2005 when Dr Manmohan Singh was the Prime Minister, and the agreement was to take up works in a 50:50 fund ratio. However, the state's contribution to building the metro is high,' he said, urging the Centre to match Karnataka's funding model with that of Maharashtra and Gujarat. In response, Modi called for cooperation over political rivalry. 'Whether it is the central government or the state government, all are committed to serving the people,' he said.
India Today
40 minutes ago
- India Today
Trump wants 'capital back,' vows to evict homeless from Washington, DC
US President Donald Trump on Sunday pledged to remove homeless people from Washington, DC, and imprison criminals, despite the city's mayor disputing claims of rising a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump wrote, "The Homeless have to move out, IMMEDIATELY. We will give you places to stay, but FAR from the Capital. The Criminals, you don't have to move out. We're going to put you in jail where you belong."advertisementHe also shared images showing tents and littered streets in the city, adding, "I'm going to make our capital safer and more beautiful than it ever was before." "It's all going to happen very fast, just like the Border. We went from millions pouring in, to ZERO in the last few months. This will be easier -- Be prepared! There will be no MR. NICE GUY. We want our Capital BACK," he is scheduled to hold a press conference Monday focused on "stopping violent crime in Washington, DC." However, it remains unclear if details about the eviction plan will be announced BOWSER REFUTES TRUMP'S CLAIMWashington's Democratic mayor, Muriel Bowser, pushed back against Trump's remarks on Sunday. Appearing on MSNBC's The Weekend, she said, "It is true that we had a terrible spike in crime in 2023, but this is not 2023. We have spent over the last two years driving down violent crime in this city, driving it down to a 30-year low."Bowser noted Trump is "very aware" of the city's cooperation with federal law enforcement after their meeting in the Oval Office weeks IN DCThe Community Partnership, a local organisation addressing homelessness, estimates about 3,782 single adults experience homelessness on any given night in Washington, a city with a population of roughly 700,000. Most are housed in emergency shelters or transitional facilities, while approximately 800 remain response to a violent attack on a Trump administration staffer, the White House confirmed deploying 450 federal law enforcement officers across the city last weekend. Officials reported investigations into incidents including unlicensed pistol carrying, driving with suspended licences, and illegal dirt bike according to the city's police department's data, a 26% drop in violent crime in the first seven months of 2025 compared with last year, alongside a 7% decline in overall crime.- EndsWith inputs from Reuters
