Investor Ross Gerber is even more bearish on Tesla after Trump's tax bill. Here's how much further he thinks the stock could fall.
The longtime Tesla investor sees the elimination of the EV tax credit as a new headwind.
He thinks the stock should be trading more in line with the valuation of other Magnificent 7 names.
One of the market's most vocal Tesla bears doesn't see a lot to get excited about for Elon Musk's carmaker through now and the end of the year.
Ross Gerber, CEO and president of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, has strongly critiqued the company and its leadership under Musk this year. He accurately predicted a crash in the stock price earlier in 2025 as sales stalled and investors grew dismayed with the CEO's work in politics.
Tesla stock has recovered its steepest losses, but it's still down 17% year-to-date — and Gerber sees it declining even further by year-end.
Geber told Business Insider that he sees the stock ending the year at roughly $200 per share, implying potential downside of roughly 36% from Monday's price of around $314.
Once a prominent shareholder and Musk backer, Gerber has substantially scaled back his Tesla position, and has been clear about why.
With Musk's relationship with Donald Trump on the rocks and lingering brand damage from his foray into politics during his stint at the Department of Government Efficiency, Gerber told Business Insider that he now sees another reason to be bearish on the stock.
Gerber said that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that Trump signed on July 4 will negatively impact the company. He recalled initially describing it as the "Tesla enrichment act," highlighting how much changed with the elimination of EV tax credits.
The bill ends many years of government support for electric cars much earlier than expected. The $7,500 tax credit, which was a big incentive for drivers to go electric, will sunset on September 30.
"Now there's nothing good for Tesla in this bill," Gerber said. "It's a serious step back for them to have to deal with this."
Musk has also spoken out against the bill, directly criticizing Trump for it and describing it as a "disgusting abomination" because of its potential to increase the deficit. The president responded by claiming that the Tesla CEO may be receiving "more subsidy than any human being in history."
Their public disagreement sent Tesla stock tumbling, with Gerber describing the feud as a "disaster for Tesla stock."
In addition to the challenges created by eliminating a lucrative consumer incentive, he also highlighted potential problems with Tesla's hugely anticipated robotaxi service, something Musk—and Wall Street—have staked the company's future on.
Gerber has instead praised Waymo, Tesla's primary rival in the autonomous driving space. In his view, Waymo's work with Lidar and digital mapping gives it a clear advantage over Tesla.
"Tesla should just accept that and do what they need to do to get the service to work," he stated. "But as of now, nobody has full self-driving software that actually is consistent enough to drive across a real town."
Between those challenges and the revenue loss that could stem from the end of the EV tax credit, Gerber predicts more pain for the stock.
"I think the stock is way overvalued and should trade in line with its Mag 7 peers," he said.
Tesla was trading at almost 170x earnings on Monday. For comparison, Nvidia stock was trading at 54x earnings.
Based on his opinion that Tesla should be valued more in line with other mega-cap tech names, Gerber said the stock should be trading around $150, "plus whatever fantastical valuation you want to put on taxis and robots."
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