Ukraine's window of opportunity

The Hill

a day ago

NewsNation national Correspondent Robert Sherman has found himself on the front lines of some of the world's biggest stories: from Ukraine to Israel and across the United States. He shares what he's seeing on the ground. Subscribe to his newsletter: Frontlines with Robert Sherman here.
Greetings from Ukraine, which feels like the center of the universe at the moment.
First, I've heard from quite a few of you since an article from Forbes — entitled ' How NewsNation is Quietly Challenging the Big Three of Cable News ' — was published Friday. It reads: 'When Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke this week with NewsNation's Robert Sherman in Kyiv, the conversation came at a pivotal moment.' The article goes on to describe our operations here in Kyiv as 'scrappy,' which is the best compliment one can give in this business. I encourage you to read the entire write-up.
And as an aside, thank you for all of your support surrounding my book, 'Lessons from the Front.' It's been a blessing to see a renewed interest in my reporting from Ukraine these last three weeks. As I've said before, the day Russia invaded Ukraine and I was on a plane to Europe, my life changed forever. It's a true honor to be back here and watch as this next chapter comes full circle. For those interested, you can pre-order my book through Amazon, Barnes and Noble or Bloomsbury.
Back to the present moment here in Kyiv. The wheels of diplomacy are turning on the Ukraine front, with all the big powerbrokers in Europe meeting at the White House. Those who have covered the Oval Office for decades acknowledge they've never seen such a cattle call.
The meeting illustrates the magnitude of the moment. The ball is moving toward the end of this war, but there's a lot that still needs to happen — and plenty that can go wrong.
An initial significant hurdle has been overcome: Security guarantees for Ukraine look as though they will include the United States' backing in some capacity.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte referred to this as a 'breakthrough.' I've received a few questions on this over the last few days that basically boil down to: 'If Ukraine isn't going to win the war outright, why don't they just make a peace deal with Russia to end it?'
Here's why: Ukraine believes Russia is going to come back for another bite at the apple in a few years. In the same way Crimea in 2014 was not the end of tensions, this current iteration of the same war is not believed to be the end either. In the same way Russia used Crimea to launch the second invasion of Ukraine, it is widely believed Russia will use the Donbas to launch a third. Why do people think this? Because the Kremlin has publicly stated it believes Russia has constitutional governance over every square inch of all four of these eastern regions.
So, the only way Russia won't come back and take another run at Ukraine is if there are security guarantees put in place by the West. That appears to be coming together, though there are some details that still need to be worked out, according to President Trump.
'They're not going to be a part of NATO, but we've got the European nations, and they'll front-load it,' Trump told Fox News. 'I don't think it's going to be a problem.'
That's step one.
Now comes the next phase, in which everything has to go right: talks between Russia and Ukraine. The White House has said the plan is for Russia and Ukraine to sit down in a bilateral format first, and then, if that goes well, the door is open for a trilateral with the U.S. to help seal the deal.
'Ukraine will never stop on the way to peace,' Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday outside the White House. 'We are ready for any kind of formats, but on the level of leaders.'
So, Ukraine's ready to go. But what about Russia? French President Emmanuel Macron is not convinced.
'You have an American president, European presidents and a Ukrainian president all wanting peace,' Macron said. 'For my part, I have the greatest doubts about the reality of a desire for peace on the part of the Russian president, because as long as he thinks he can win through war, he will do so.'
There are lots of 'ifs.' Lots of 'room for error.' But to give the White House credit where credit is due, things are moving in the right direction.
Don't take my word for it. Finland's President Alexander Stubb probably said it best: 'In the last two weeks, we have made more progress than in three and a half years.'
More to come, and a lot more has to go right. But a window of opportunity is here. The only question is, will everyone play ball to seize it?