U.S. allies find that ‘nice kitty' doesn't keep Trump from biting

Washington Post

4 days ago

President Donald Trump's disruptive trade and security policies are producing some big aftershocks — including a likely summit meeting in China this fall, a possible change of government in Japan and European complaints of U.S. economic 'blackmail.'
A common theme running through these global developments is that rivals such as China seem to be faring better in dealing with Trump's challenge to the global order than are traditional U.S. allies including Japan and European nations. Except for Britain, countries are often finding that the reward for being a loyal partner is a punch in the nose.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last Friday that there's a 'high probability' of a summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. That announcement came after what Rubio described as a 'very constructive, positive meeting' with his Chinese counterpart, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Diplomats tell me the summit will probably take place in Beijing in October.
Trump's agreement to meet on Xi's turf comes after Beijing's tough response to U.S. tariffs and trade restrictions. China nearly matched Trump's initial 145 percent levy, raising its tariffs on U.S.-made goods to 125 percent, which pressured Trump to trim his proposed tariffs to 30 percent. China countered Trump's ban on the export of advanced computer chips with a restriction on U.S. purchases of rare earth minerals — which diplomats tell me hit harder than expected — and Trump recently eased the chip ban.
Big, tough China seems to have Trump's respect. But friendly countries that tried to play nice with the administration haven't fared well. They are facing economic and political shocks at home, and they're considering painful adjustments.
A prime example is Japan, one of the most steadfast U.S. economic and security partners. Japanese officials were stunned when they were hit with a 25 percent tariff on all exports to the United States. They are arguing their case for relief, especially on auto exports, to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who's visiting Japan this week. But a trade deal before the Aug. 1 imposition of tariffs is unlikely.
For Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, this inability to obtain relief from Washington is likely to be costly politically. Japan holds elections for half the seats in its upper house of parliament this weekend, and the LDP-led coalition is likely to lose its majority, a Japanese analyst told me. The LDP already lost control of the lower house in October. After this weekend's expected setback, Japanese analysts predict that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba could be replaced, perhaps by former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi.
Japan's political shake-up illustrates the global turbulence caused by Trump's 'America First' policies. Japan made an epochal post-1945 bet on an American-led global order. As Trump dismantles that backstop, Japan will need to become more self-reliant and independent, with a less U.S.-dependent foreign policy.
A poll last month by the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper showed that the percentage of Japanese who say they trust the United States has fallen drastically since November, down to 22 percent. Japan even has its own mildly MAGA party, known as the Do It Yourself party, which is likely to gain seats in this weekend's elections for its nationalist agenda.
Europe, too, has been spinning on the Trump yo-yo. In a Monday meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump lauded European nations for their fortitude in supporting Ukraine, calling them 'solid, strong countries' that were ready to take big risks to protect themselves against an aggressive Russia.
But on trade, Trump continues to hammer the European Union. He threatened last weekend to impose 30 percent tariffs on the 27 countries in the European Union, which the group's trade minister, Maros Sefcovic, called 'absolutely unacceptable.' Sefcovic is in Washington this week to try to negotiate a reduced rate from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and other officials before the levy takes effect Aug. 1.
'The E.U. never walks away without a genuine effort, especially considering … how close we find ourselves to making a deal, and the clear benefits of a negotiated solution,' Sefcovic said. 'But as I have said before, it takes two hands to clap.'
A sign of Europe's growing frustration with Trump was a statement Tuesday by French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot. He called the 30 percent tariff demand 'an unfriendly move that resembles blackmail and falls short of the special relationship between the United States of America and the European Union.'
Europe's negotiating style with Trump has, until recently, mostly been the 'nice kitty' approach, hoping that the White House would eventually relent. For example, some European officials have privately assured the administration that they agree that their technology regulations and information-protection rules are too harsh and should be more closely aligned with U.S. standards.
But if the impasse continues, the E.U. has a potent retaliatory arsenal of its own, known as the anti-coercion instrument. An E.U. document explains this measure may 'include restrictions on the access to the EU market,' including goods, services, investment, finance and government procurement. It's Europe's trade version of the 'nuclear option,' and it's notable that European officials, after months of caution, are beginning to talk about it openly.
Trump took a roundhouse swing at the global economic system when he announced his tariffs April 2. He hit his target, and the system is swinging like a broken piñata. Trump might back down when he sees strength, as in China's response. But mostly, he's still punching.