Intel Stock's Biggest Ally: Washington?

Forbes

2 days ago

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) has surged nearly 20% over the past week to levels of about $24.50 a share. So what's been fueling the gains? Earlier this month, President Trump had urged CEO Lip-Bu Tan to step down over his past ties with China. But the narrative flipped last week after a highly positive White House meeting, with Trump later calling Tan's "amazing story" emblematic of the American dream.
What's more, reports now suggest the Trump Administration is considering taking a direct stake in Intel, underscoring its strategic importance. So why Intel? Unlike rivals that rely heavily on Asian foundries to produce their chips, Intel still maintains considerable U.S. manufacturing capacity. That makes it the only realistic domestic player to drive the U.S. government's increasing push toward re-shoring semiconductor production, which it sees as a crucial national security priority.
Intel's core CPU business has been steadily losing ground to AMD in PCs and servers, while Nvidia has seized the AI market with its GPUs. However, a deal with Washington wouldn't just inject much-needed capital for Intel, which could be used to speed up Intel's repeatedly delayed Ohio mega fabrication unit. An investment would also bring a high level of credibility that could pull in more private capital and drive investor confidence. We've seen this playbook before as the Trump Administration took a $400 million preferred equity stake in rare-earth minerals player MP Materials. (What's Happening With MP Materials Stock?) Investors are betting Intel could be the next beneficiary of that same tailwind. So how are Intel stock's fundamentals looking at this point?
Our analysis of Intel along key parameters of Growth, Profitability, Financial Stability, and Downturn Resilience shows that the company has a weak operating performance as detailed below. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
How Does Intel's Valuation Look vs. The S&P 500?
Going by what you pay per dollar of sales or profit, INTC stock looks cheap compared to the broader market.
• Intel has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.9 vs. a figure of 3.3 for the S&P 500
How Have Intel's Revenues Grown Over Recent Years?
Intel's Revenues have fallen over recent years.
• Intel has seen its top line decline at an average rate of 11.2% over the last 3 years (vs. increase of 5.5% for S&P 500)
• Its revenues have decreased 4.0% from $55 Bil to $53 Bil in the last 12 months (vs. growth of 5.5% for S&P 500)
• Also, its quarterly revenues fell 0.4% to $13 Bil in the most recent quarter from $13 Bil a year ago (vs. 4.8% improvement for S&P 500)
How Profitable Is Intel?
Intel's profit margins are much worse than most companies in the Trefis coverage universe.
• Intel's Operating Income over the last four quarters was $-4.1 Bil, which represents a very poor Operating Margin of -7.8%
• Intel's Operating Cash Flow (OCF) over this period was $10 Bil, pointing to a moderate OCF Margin of 19.5% (vs. 14.9% for S&P 500)
• For the last four-quarter period, Intel's Net Income was $-19 Bil - indicating a very poor Net Income Margin of -36.2% (vs. 11.6% for S&P 500)
Does Intel Look Financially Stable?
Intel's balance sheet looks fine.
• Intel's Debt figure was $50 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its market capitalization is $102 Bil (as of 8/15/2025). This implies a poor Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 52.5% (vs. 19.4% for S&P 500). [Note: A low Debt-to-Equity Ratio is desirable]
• Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $21 Bil of the $192 Bil in Total Assets for Intel. This yields a strong Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 10.9%
How Resilient Is Intel Stock During A Downturn
INTC stock has fared worse than the benchmark S&P 500 index during some of the recent downturns. Worried about the impact of a market crash on INTC stock? Our dashboard How Low Can Stocks Go During A Market Crash captures how key stocks fared during and after the last six market crashes.
Inflation Shock (2022)
• INTC stock fell 63.3% from a high of $68.26 on 9 April 2021 to $25.04 on 11 October 2022, vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500
• The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
• The highest the stock has reached since then is $50.76 on 27 December 2023 and currently trades at around $24
Covid Pandemic (2020)
• INTC stock fell 34.8% from a high of $68.47 on 24 January 2020 to $44.61 on 16 March 2020, vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500
• The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
Global Financial Crisis (2008)
• INTC stock fell 56.8% from a high of $27.98 on 6 December 2007 to $12.08 on 23 February 2009, vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500
• The stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 26 March 2012
Putting The Pieces Together
Intel's low valuation, reasonably stable balance sheet, and potential tailwinds from a better relationship with the Trump Administration are positives, while the company's recent revenue contraction and weak margins remain a concern. While you would do well to be cautious with INTC stock for now, you could explore the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to produce strong returns for investors. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid- and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks provided a responsive way to make the most of upbeat market conditions while limiting losses when markets head south, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics.