AMD Reports August 5—Analyst Sees Q3 Upside and CPU Market Gains
According to the firm, China AI shipments will potentially resume in the second half of 2025, adding $0.7-$1 billion to 2025 AI GPU revenue and $1.5-$2 billion to 2026 (calendar years).
'AMD reports Tuesday, August 5 after market close. Read-throughs point to: 1) potential (yet unconfirmed) China AI shipment resumption in 2H, adding ~$0.7–$1 billion to CY25 AI GPU sales and ~$1.5–$2 billion to CY26; 2) stronger than expected pricing for its current-gen MI355X ($20K+ vs. $17K consensus); 3) continued strong demand for AI/GPU driven by rising cloud capex; 4) easier 2H PC unit comps, given AMD's recent PC strength was mostly average selling price (ASP)-driven rather than unit-based; 5) AMD's 2H PC outlook is already well below seasonal by 1300bps/1400bps in Q3/Q4; and 6) healthy enterprise demand (e.g., HPE/TXN)."
A close up of the hand of a financial analyst, holding a copy of a report from a rating agency.
"Overall, we expect upside to Q2/Q3 results and guidance at $7.5 billion+/$8.5 billion+ in sales (vs. consensus $7.4 billion/$8.3 billion) and CY25 sales/EPS toward $33 billion+/$4.10+ (vs. consensus $32.2 billion/$4.01). Longer-term, we expect AMD to exceed 30% of the overall CPU market by CY26, up from just under 20% in CY23, and potentially reach 4–5% of the AI GPU market. Intel's prioritization of profitability and manufacturing uncertainty offers greater opportunity for AMD to gain CPU share. We reiterate our Buy rating and raise our price objective to $200 from $175, now based on 36x CY26E P/E (from 31x), reflecting a stronger AI CPU/GPU environment, but still within the historical 13x–39x range.' -Vivek Arya
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) develops and sells semiconductors, processors, and GPUs for data centers, gaming, AI, and embedded applications.
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