Markets' trade deal euphoria ignores tariff reality: McGeever
ORLANDO, Florida - The optimism sweeping world stock markets following news of emerging and expected U.S. trade deals is undeniable and understandable. But it is also puzzling.
The S&P 500, Britain's FTSE 100 and the MSCI All Country index have powered to new highs this week, and other global benchmarks are not far behind. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and other big banks have recently been raising their year-end S&P 500 forecasts by as much as 10%.
The catalyst is clear: baseline tariffs on imported goods into the U.S. will be much lower than the duties President Donald Trump had threatened previously. It emerged this week that the levy on Japanese goods will be 15%, not 25%, and indications are that a deal with the European Union will land on 15% too. That's half the rate Trump had threatened to impose.
Suddenly, the picture is nowhere near as bleak is it looked a few months ago. Economists reckon that the final aggregate U.S. tariff rate will settle around 15-20% once deals with Brussels and Beijing are reached, a level markets are betting won't tip the economy into recession.
This suggests that Trump's seemingly chaotic strategy – threaten mutually assured economic destruction, extract concessions and then pull back to limit the market damage – is paying off. But will it?
SOMEONE MUST PAY
Despite the market euphoria, the fact remains that on December 31 last year, the average aggregate U.S. tariff on imported goods was around 2.5%. So even if that ends up in the anticipated 15-20% range, it will still be at least six times what it was only a few months ago, and comfortably the highest it has been since the 1930s.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimates that tariff revenues this year could reach $300 billion, which is the equivalent to around 1% of GDP. Extrapolating last year's goods imports of $3.3 trillion to next year, a 15% levy could raise close to $500 billion, or just over 1.5% of GDP.
So who will pick up that tab? Is it the U.S. consumer, importers or the overseas exporters? Or a mixture of all three? The likelihood is it will mostly be split between U.S. consumers and companies, squeezing household spending and corporate profits. Either way, it's hard to see how this would not be detrimental to growth.
We may not know for some time, as it will take months for the affected goods to come onshore and get onto U.S. shelves and for the tariff revenues to be collected.
"We've got a ways to go before we can really say the U.S. economy is feeling the full effect of the tariff policies being announced," Bob Elliott, a former Bridgewater executive and founder of Unlimited, told CNBC on Wednesday.
But in the meantime, equity investors appear to be ignoring all of this.
SIGNS OF FROTH
The market's short-term momentum is clear. The S&P 500 has closed above its 200-day moving average for 62 days in a row, the longest streak since 1997, according to Carson Group's Ryan Detrick. And the 'meme stock' craze is back too, another sign that risk appetite may be decoupling from fundamentals.
Indeed, markets are priced for something approaching perfection. The consensus S&P 500 earnings growth for next year is 14%, according to LSEG I/B/E/S, barely changed from 14.5% on April 1, just before Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff salvo. Even the 2025 consensus of around 9% isn't that much lower than 10.5% on April 1.
A Reuters poll late last year showed a 2025 year-end consensus estimate for the S&P 500 of 6,500. The index is nearly there already, and is trading at roughly the same multiple as it was on December 31, a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22.
Can these lofty expectations be supported by an economy whose growth rate next year is expected to be 2% or less? Possibly. But it will be a challenge for most firms, with the exception of the 'Magnificent Seven' tech giants whose size might better shield them from tariffs or slowing growth.
Ultimately, this is all a huge experiment pitting protectionist trade policy and Depression-era tariffs against the economic orthodoxy of the past 40 years. And it's yet another example of equity investors' ability to find the silver lining in almost anything.
As Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, says: "'It could have been worse' is not a good foundation for a market rally".
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters)
(By Jamie McGeever. Editing by Mark Potter)
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Khaleej Times
2 hours ago
- Khaleej Times
Opec+ makes another large oil output hike in market share push
Opec+ agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, the latest in a series of accelerated output hikes to regain market share, as concerns mount over potential supply disruptions linked to Russia. The move marks a full and early reversal of Opec+'s largest tranche of output cuts plus a separate increase in output for the UAE amounting to about 2.5 million bpd, or about 2.4 per cent of world demand. Eight Opec+ members held a brief virtual meeting, amid increasing US pressure on India to halt Russian oil purchases — part of Washington's efforts to bring Moscow to the negotiating table for a peace deal with Ukraine. President Donald Trump said he wants this by August 8. In a statement following the meeting, Opec+ cited a healthy economy and low stocks as reasons behind its decision. Oil prices have remained elevated even as Opec+ has raised output, with Brent crude closing near $70 a barrel on Friday, up from a 2025 low of near $58 in April, supported in part by rising seasonal demand. 'Given fairly strong oil prices at around $70, it does give Opec+ some confidence about market fundamentals,' said Amrita Sen, co-founder of Energy Aspects, adding that the market structure was also indicating tight stocks. The eight countries are scheduled to meet again on September 7, when they may consider reinstating another layer of output cuts totalling around 1.65 million bpd, two Opec+ sources said following Sunday's meeting. Those cuts are currently in place until the end of next year. Opec+ in full includes 10 non-Opec oil producing countries, most notably Russia and Kazakhstan. The group, which pumps about half of the world's oil, had been curtailing production for several years to support oil prices. It reversed course this year in a bid to regain market share, spurred in part by calls from Trump for Opec to ramp up production. The eight began raising output in April with a modest hike of 138,000 bpd, followed by larger-than-planned hikes of 411,000 bpd in May, June and July, 548,000 bpd in August and now 547,000 bpd for September. 'So far the market has been able to absorb very well those additional barrels also due to stockpiliing activity in China,' said Giovanni Staunovo of UBS. 'All eyes will now shift on the Trump decision on Russia this Friday.' As well as the voluntary cut of about 1.65 million bpd from the eight members, Opec+ still has a 2-million-bpd cut across all members, which also expires at the end of 2026. 'Opec+ has passed the first test,' said Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy and a former Opec official, as it has fully reversed its largest cut without crashing prices. 'But the next task will be even harder: deciding if and when to unwind the remaining 1.66 million barrels, all while navigating geopolitical tension and preserving cohesion.'
Khaleej Times
3 hours ago
- Khaleej Times
India to maintain Russian oil imports despite Trump threats, government sources say
India will keep purchasing oil from Russia despite U.S. President Donald Trump's threats of penalties, two Indian government sources told Reuters on Saturday, not wishing to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter. On top of a new 25% tariff on India's exports to the U.S., Trump indicated in a Truth Social post last month that India would face additional penalties for purchases of Russian arms and oil. On Friday, Trump told reporters he had heard that India would no longer be buying oil from Russia. But the sources said there would be no immediate changes. "These are long-term oil contracts," one of the sources said. "It is not so simple to just stop buying overnight." Justifying India's oil purchases from Russia, a second source said India's imports of Russian grades had helped avoid a global surge in oil prices, which have remained subdued despite Western curbs on the Russian oil sector. Unlike Iranian and Venezuelan oil, Russian crude is not subject to direct sanctions, and India is buying it below the current price cap fixed by the European Union, the source said. The New York Times also quoted two unnamed senior Indian officials on Saturday as saying there had been no change in Indian government policy. Indian government authorities did not respond to Reuters' request for official comment on its oil purchasing intentions. However, during a regular press briefing on Friday, foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said India has a "steady and time-tested partnership" with Russia. "On our energy sourcing requirements ... we look at what is there available in the markets, what is there on offer, and also what is the prevailing global situation or circumstances," he said. The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment. India's top supplier Trump, who has made ending Russia's war in Ukraine a priority of his administration since returning to office this year, has expressed growing impatience with Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent weeks. He has threatened 100% tariffs on U.S. imports from countries that buy Russian oil unless Moscow reaches a major peace deal with Ukraine. Russia is the leading supplier to India, the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer, accounting for about 35% of its overall supplies. India imported about 1.75 million barrels per day of Russian oil from January to June this year, up 1% from a year ago, according to data provided to Reuters by sources. But while the Indian government may not be deterred by Trump's threats, sources told Reuters this week that Indian state refiners stopped buying Russian oil after July discounts narrowed to their lowest since 2022 - when sanctions were first imposed on Moscow - due to lower Russian exports and steady demand. Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp , Bharat Petroleum Corp and Mangalore Refinery Petrochemical Ltd have not sought Russian crude in the past week or so, four sources told Reuters. Nayara Energy - a refinery majority-owned by Russian entities, including oil major Rosneft, and major buyer of Russian oil - was recently sanctioned by the EU. Nayara's chief executive resigned following the sanctions, and three vessels laden with oil products from Nayara Energy have yet to discharge their cargoes, hindered by the new EU sanctions, Reuters reported last week.
Khaleej Times
3 hours ago
- Khaleej Times
Never mind Wall Street records, investors rethink US market supremacy
A rebound on Wall Street and in the dollar has not allayed investor concerns about the ability of U.S. assets to outperform overseas markets, with a fresh tariff salvo once again denting market optimism after a string of trade deals struck by the Trump administration perked up sentiment for equities to set record highs. The sliding dollar, down about 8% this year against a basket of major currencies, and the ballooning fiscal deficit are shaking the conviction that U.S. financial markets will deliver world-beating returns. For more than a decade, the concept of "American exceptionalism" - the conviction that the United States' democratic system plus its huge and liquid capital markets offer unique rewards - has been little challenged by investors. But ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs is rattling confidence. While the deals struck by Donald Trump with the European Union, Japan and South Korea have delivered some relief, the U.S. president late on Thursday slapped dozens of trading partners with steep tariffs. A market shakeout earlier this year caused by Trump's first tariff announcements triggered a re-evaluation. The U.S. market's standing appears "a little bit bruised," said Lori Heinel, global chief investment officer at State Street Investment Management. "The overhang of the (government) debt makes it less attractive to have dollar-based assets," she added. In a survey conducted in late May and June, market research consultancy CoreData found that many institutional investors and consultants, collectively overseeing $4.9 trillion in assets, are scaling back exposure to the U.S. Among respondents, 47% are cutting their strategic, long-term allocations to U.S. markets. While investors have become more upbeat on the outlook for Europe, as well as for China and other emerging markets, bullishness toward U.S. markets now lags those regions. That, said Michael Morley, head of CoreData US, marks 'a massive reversal' from attitudes two years ago. The latest wave of tariffs on exports from dozens of trading partners, including Canada, Brazil, India and Taiwan, sent global markets tumbling on Friday. The announced duties were "somewhat worse than expected," analysts at Societe Generale said in a note. "Markets responded more negatively to the August 1 announcement than to other news in the past two months, but the reaction was far less severe than on April 2," they said. TARIFF IMPACT OVERDUE? Investors began reconsidering their allocations following Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement on April 2, reassessing the allure of "brand USA" and fretting about a new recession. The Trump administration then paused tariff rollouts and subsequently began announcing deals that cap tariffs at lower levels than initially proposed. Stocks rebounded, with the SP 500 soaring 27.2% from its April 8 close to its July 31 close, setting a series of new records. CoreData, however, found that 49% of institutions believe that markets now are too complacent about the impact of U.S. tariffs. U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in five months in June, according to Consumer Price Index data, suggesting that tariffs are boosting inflation. Other data points to a moderation in economic activity, and second-quarter growth was mainly strong because imports were weak. Global asset manager Man Group, which manages roughly $193 billion, is wary of overweighting U.S. assets. 'This is an opportunity for investors to take some profits, rebalance and go to neutral on the U.S.," said Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group. Beyond tariffs The dollar's status as the global reserve currency may be in question as the U.S. forfeits the role of free trade facilitator, said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group, adding the firm expects to sell the dollar on any rally. After suffering its worst first-half performance since 1973 this year, the dollar posted its first monthly gains for 2025 in July, as investors regained confidence in the wake of trade deals. Also contributing to the reassessment of U.S. market supremacy is the risk of monetary policy being politicized. Trump has repeatedly called for lower interest rates and threatened to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. A recently approved tax and spending bill, meanwhile, will add trillions to the government's debt, exacerbating longstanding deficit concerns. Investors are likely to respond by seeking higher compensation for the risk of owning long-dated Treasury securities "There's very, very real risk that yields go significantly higher because of the deficit," said Man Group's Hooper. For many, the buoyant U.S. stock market and optimism surrounding the U.S. tech sector have made it hard to turn bearish. "The bottom line is that the U.S. has some of the most innovative and profitable companies in the world, and the deepest capital markets," said Kelly Kowalski, head of investment strategy at MassMutual. Anxiety about the demise of U.S. pre-eminence is "overblown," she said. Concerns over weaker foreign demand for U.S. debt have eased in recent weeks. After selling a net $40.8 billion of Treasuries in April, foreigners resumed buying to the tune of $146 billion in May, the latest government data showed. Also, while European stocks handily beat their U.S. counterparts in March, that gap has narrowed with every new trade deal announced. As of the end of July, Europe's STOXX 600 was roughly neck and neck with the SP 500. "The big factor in the room has nothing to do with policies, but technology," said Richard Lightburn, deputy chief investment officer at macro hedge fund MKP Capital Management. "It still feels like early innings for AI adoption and integration." Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, continues to recommend a slight overweight to U.S. stocks relative to other global markets. "Call it 'exceptionalism' or just 'clarity.' The macro environment in the U.S. is comparatively more stable."
