Astros mailbag: The catching situation, Jacob Melton's role and Miguel Ullola's arrival

New York Times

3 days ago

HOUSTON — Hello, Astros fans. The American League West is earning its distinction as a mediocre division. The Athletics are miserable in a minor-league ballpark. The Texas Rangers have yet to reap the rewards of hiring a podcast host as their hitting coach. The Seattle Mariners have managed to lose eight of their past 11 games against teams including the Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Angels.
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As a result, the Astros have opened a 2 1/2-game lead after playing their most consistent stretch of baseball all season. Houston's pitching continues to excel, pairing with wonderful defense and aggressive, opportune base running to keep the team afloat in Yordan Alvarez's absence.
Alvarez returning at full health is the biggest boost this ballclub could get, but general manager Dana Brown will still scour the trade market for another left-handed bat in addition to a starting pitcher and, perhaps, a leverage reliever.
It is crazy to think Houston has enough prospect capital to complete all three tasks, prompting questions of what the club is prioritizing — or whether it is comfortable trading from its major-league roster. Seven weeks remain to answer those questions. Here are a few others that have you curious.
Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.
Might there be any momentum building toward starting Victor Caratini over Yainer (Diaz)? As a switch hitter, (Caratini) addresses one of the lineup's more glaring weaknesses. He also has a better record at the plate than Yainer, who is supposed to be a bat-first catcher in his own right. — Ryan F.
Diaz has been a disappointment, Ryan, but the Astros aren't yet prepared to make such a drastic decision. That Diaz has caught almost all of the innings thrown by Houston's co-aces can't be overlooked. Nor can the relatively low workload Caratini has logged throughout his nine-year career.
According to FanGraphs, Diaz entered Sunday's game worth minus-0.1 wins above replacement. Only 13 other qualified American League hitters were worse, including Diaz's teammate Christian Walker.
Diaz is the definition of a bat-first catcher, but boasts a .657 OPS after 215 at-bats. Defensively, Diaz's blocking numbers are worse than last season, and his pitch framing — never a strong suit in the first place — is still lacking.
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Still, Diaz has caught every one of Hunter Brown's starts and all but one of Framber Valdez's. Pitcher preference is paramount, and it's difficult to envision manager Joe Espada breaking up those batteries. Ditto for Caratini and Lance McCullers Jr., a pairing Espada envisioned before McCullers' return.
Caratini, 31, has caught more than 500 innings just twice as a major leaguer. He finished both of those seasons — 2021 and 2022 — with a 79 OPS+. He entered Sunday with 191 1/3 innings caught and a 102 OPS+.
There is some worry about keeping Caratini healthy, which gives team officials pause on increasing his catching workload. The aforementioned offensive numbers speak for themselves, too.
Adding left-handed hitting outfielder Jacob Melton has reduced the need to play Caratini every day just for balance. Alvarez's return will further eliminate the need, but Houston does want to keep Caratini involved. He is Espada's best pinch hit option late in games, too.
Is it likely that we re-sign Framber (Valdez)? What would be a realistic contract? — John P.
It is not likely, John. Valdez's price tag has climbed considerably during his past six starts, a stretch in which he's posted a 1.84 ERA and struck out 47 hitters across 44 innings.
Valdez and his representatives at Octagon will likely use Max Fried's eight-year, $218 million contract with the New York Yankees as a framework for free-agent discussions. Fried is two months younger than Valdez, but the two southpaws have strikingly similar numbers in their careers.
During spring training, Valdez said the Astros had not approached him or his representatives about a potential extension. Even if they had, nothing in owner Jim Crane's past suggested he would make the sort of offer that Valdez would seriously consider.
Crane has never guaranteed a starting pitcher more than $85 million. Closer Josh Hader's five-year, $95 million contract remains the largest free-agent deal during his ownership tenure. It feels far-fetched that he would exceed either number to the extent Valdez will require.
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Why do you think the Astros are last in the league in scoring first-inning runs? With the way it seems that they always go down in order to start games, are they not mentally prepared? — Michael S.
Few fans will want to hear it, Michael, but it may just be one of those baseball oddities. Most nights, Houston is guaranteed to send an American League MVP candidate in Jeremy Peña, its leading home run hitter in Isaac Paredes and the face of its franchise in Jose Altuve up to bat in the first inning — an enviable setup the club fails to exploit.
The Astros are the only team in baseball with fewer than 20 first-inning runs, but their problem is more far-reaching than just the first frame. Houston entered Sunday slashing .232/.290/.328 with a .618 OPS during its first look at a starting pitcher. No team in the sport has a lower slugging percentage in those situations. Only the hapless Colorado Rockies have a lower OPS.

The Astros' lineup's OPS jumps from .618 to .722 when seeing a starter the second time. Paredes has a .508 OPS in his first look at a starter and a .939 mark during his second. Altuve's numbers are almost identical — .562 in his first look and .800 during his second. That the struggling Walker hits behind them in the batting order only exacerbates the problem.
Blaming Paredes and Altuve alone for an entire team's struggles the first time through is foolish, but both men are here to help carry a top-heavy offense. Improving in their first at-bats can make that easier.
Has the fact that (Miguel) Ullola hasn't been mentioned by (general manager Dana) Brown previously mean he's unlikely to get the call-up anytime soon? — Ryan C.
I'd recommend listening to Brown's regular Sunday appearance on the team's pregame radio show, Ryan. During last week's discussion, Brown mentioned he and Espada 'just had a nice discussion about (Ullola) downstairs.'
That the conversation happened at all indicates Ullola is on the major-league radar. Ullola has struck out 52 batters across his first 38 innings at Triple-A Sugar Land and claimed Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Month honors in May, a month he finished with a 1.17 ERA in 23 innings.
Command remains an issue for Ullola, who has thrown just 58 percent of his pitches for strikes and is walking 5.8 batters per nine innings, but he is missing enough bats to warrant a serious look from the major-league team.
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Following Monday's off day, Houston faces a stretch of 19 games in 20 days. Going to a six-man rotation for some of it seems sensible. Two spots in it are not secured, though Brandon Walter may have earned one Sunday after holding the Cleveland Guardians to two runs across six innings.
Ullola's fate could be tied to that of Ryan Gusto, who has failed to finish five innings in six of his last eight starts. Gusto has a 5.60 ERA across his past 10 appearances, eight of which are starts.
After Gusto's last one — a 4 1/3-inning slog against a putrid Pittsburgh Pirates lineup — Espada did not sound like someone prepared to pull him from the rotation. Gusto is listed as the team's probable starter Wednesday against the Chicago White Sox, a lineup with listlessness on par with Pittsburgh.
If Gusto authors a similar result, a difficult conversation may ensue — especially if Ullola continues to make his case for a call-up.
One bright red flag I see with this year's team is the failure to control the opponents' running game. Do you see this improving anytime soon? And does the problem lie with the catchers? Slow pickoff moves? Inexperience in the rotation? Or all of the above? — Neeraj J.
Only the Miami Marlins and Athletics entered Sunday allowing stolen bases at a higher clip than the Astros, Neeraj. Houston and Miami are the only two teams to surrender at least 70 stolen bases. It's a problem — a holistic one harped on by Houston's coaching staff since spring training.
No part of the Astros' battery is absolved from blame. According to Baseball Savant, Houston's pitching staff is worth a minus-13 net bases prevented and entered Sunday allowing 56 extra bases gained by either steals or balks. Again, only the Marlins have worse numbers.
Opponents have attempted 54 stolen bases against Diaz and 30 against Caratini. Diaz's average exchange and pop times have decreased from last season, while the average velocity on his throws is down from 84.3 mph last season to 83.6 mph during this one.
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Still, Diaz managed to throw out eight base stealers. Caratini has only caught three. On average, runners are 54.1 feet away from second base when Diaz receives the baseball and 53.5 feet away against Caratini.
League average is 56 feet, accentuating a fact that's hard to argue: Astros pitchers are giving their catchers little chance to throw anyone out. Introducing slide steps, holding the baseball longer before delivering it or varying times to home plate can help. Houston's pitching staff is incorporating all of it in hopes of turning around this troubling trend.
What's the chance Jacob Melton is (given) the same opportunities they have (given) Cam Smith? — Shannon E.
Production precipitates playing time, Shannon, so Melton is in control of his destiny. He is a left-handed hitter who represents what this club lacks — and what it could be in the market for during the trade deadline.
Perhaps Melton will make that pursuit moot. As long as Alvarez remains on the injured list, a path to regular at-bats exists for Melton at any of the three outfield spots or as the team's designated hitter. The team must be mindful of Melton's recovery from a groin injury, though, which limited him to playing four days a week at Triple-A Sugar Land before his promotion.
Melton has started six of his first seven games as a big leaguer. He has demonstrated dazzling defense and an ability to prolong at-bats, but is still 3-for-20 with eight strikeouts.
While Alvarez, Chas McCormick and Zach Dezenzo are out, though, a runway exists for the major-league staff to see whether Melton can be a contributor.
If he proves capable, it could open a new avenue for Brown to explore at the trade deadline — perhaps using McCormick, Dezenzo or starting center fielder Jake Meyers as chips in trade talks with Melton waiting in the wings to replace them.
(Top photo of Victor Caratini and Yainer Diaz: Nick Cammett / Getty Images)