Bull Case Forecast: Sensex may hit 1,15,836 and Nifty 43,876 by FY28, says Ventura

Mint

16 hours ago

Indian equity market is likely to deliver strong gains over the next few years, with the benchmark indices potentially rising 42 percent by fiscal 2028, according to Ventura Securities. Despite a turbulent global economic backdrop, the brokerage sees India's strong GDP growth, manageable debt levels, and relatively stable bond yields as key drivers positioning the country ahead of global peers.
In its latest forecast, Ventura Securities said that the Sensex could reach 1,15,836 and the Nifty 50 could climb to 43,876 by FY28 in a bullish scenario. These projections are supported by a compound annual earnings per share (EPS) growth rate of 12–14 percent and macroeconomic stability.
Even in a more conservative or bearish environment, the brokerage sees solid upside. It estimates the Sensex could still rise to 104,804 points and the Nifty 50 to 39,697. The forecast is underpinned by a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 21 times in the bull case and 19 times in the bear case, with estimated FY28 EPS at 5,516 for the Sensex and 2,089 for the Nifty.
According to Ventura, India's unique macroeconomic combination — relatively high growth, moderate debt, and benign interest rates — gives it an edge over advanced economies like the US and Japan. 'India's large growth market is likely to outpace its global peers supported by a unique combination of strong GDP growth, moderate debt levels, and comparatively benign bond yields,' the brokerage noted.
Ventura's bullish outlook is also shaped by encouraging Q1FY26 earnings season trends. As of mid-quarter, 159 companies have declared their results, with broad-based growth across sectors. Engineering, manufacturing, and services led the charge, while consumption, commodities, and pharmaceuticals delivered steady performances.
Sectors such as BFSI, IT, healthcare, and logistics have delivered positive earnings surprises. This, Ventura said, highlights the resilience of Indian corporate earnings and reinforces confidence in long-term fundamentals.
'India remains the world's most promising investment destination,' the brokerage added, citing GDP growth at 6.5 percent, a debt-to-GDP ratio around 80%, and stable bond yields. While developed markets face headwinds such as high debt and sluggish growth, India's demographic dividend and structural economic reforms continue to attract global capital.
Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research at Ventura Securities, said the past decade has proven India's resilience despite multiple crises. 'In the last 10 years, the Indian economy has demonstrated resilience and clocked the highest GDP growth among large economies, despite global headwinds such as the NBFC crisis, COVID-19, Russia–Ukraine war, and the recent uncertainty on Trump tariffs,' he said.
According to Bolinjkar, India's ability to mitigate risks will outweigh existing challenges and help push GDP growth to an estimated 7.3 percent by FY30. Strategic measures like the discovery of oil in the Andaman region, the gold monetization scheme, and a multi-pronged national security strategy are expected to add further strength to India's macroeconomic fundamentals.
Ventura believes that the Indian equity market has not yet priced in the long-term structural advantages the country offers. Factors such as rising foreign exchange reserves, sustainable debt levels, and the possibility of lower interest rates could create a highly favorable investment landscape in the coming years.
In this context, the Sensex's journey to 115,000 and beyond looks achievable — provided the current momentum in earnings and reforms continues. For investors looking beyond short-term volatility, India stands out as a resilient and rewarding long-term bet.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.