Election expert warns of Conservative collapse in South Ayrshire amid scandal and rise of Reform
One of Scotland's top political analysts has warned South Ayrshire Conservatives that they could face collapse at the next local elections.
Allan Faulds, who runs the Ballot Box Scotland website, says that the issues within the party, which has lost four members over the last week, combined with the rise of Reform UK could see a changed landscape when voters go to the polls in 2027.
While acknowledging that there are specific local issues at play, he said: 'In general terms, Reform UK are polling at a level that in the absence of any information about the spread of their vote across a given council area, they should be treated as in contention in every ward in South Ayrshire.
'Given only a handful of those have multiple Conservative councillors as-is, that risks a complete collapse in Conservative numbers in 2027.
'[They] could end up going from being so dominant as to get three Ayr West councillors back in 2017, to just one in 2027 for example.'
South Ayrshire Council is already unrecognisable from the make up in 2022.
While the Conservatives picked up the most seats, their share of the votes dropped from 43 per cent in 2017 to 33 per cent.
The SNP, which had formed a coalition with Labour to form the administration in 2017, actually secured the most votes, with an increase in share of 3.9 per cent.
It retained its nine seats, as did Labour with its five seats. However, no agreement on a coalition was reached between the two, opening the door to a Conservative administration, supported by independents.
Since then the SNP faced a torrid time, losing four councillors. One, then group leader Peter Henderson, retired, while three others left the party – Chris Cullen to Alba, Group Leader William Grant and Mark Dixon becoming independents.
The Conservatives saw Councillor Stephen Ferry quit the party, before the mass exodus the party has seen over the last week.
The resignations have seen the number of independents swell. In 2017 there were just two, Councillors Alec Clark and Brian Connolly. This doubled in 2022, but now stands at 10 (11 if you take the sole Alba councillor Chris Cullen).
South Ayrshire Council seats
Independents 10
Conservatives 7
SNP 5
Labour 5
Alba 1
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