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Daily Record
29-07-2025
- Politics
- Daily Record
New Ayrshire region and 'burgh-style' councils could revive local politics says political pundit
Allan Faulds, the political pundit behind the Ballot Box Scotland website, has made the case for a return to two-tier councils three decades on from the creation of unitary authorities. A prominent Scottish politics analyst says that a return to a two tier system of local government could be key to reigniting politics at a local level. Allan Faulds, known for his comprehensive analysis of Scottish polls and election on his Ballot Box Scotland website, has worked on a project that could provide an alternative to the current system. His report 'New Municipalism 2025' outlines a two-tier system of smaller municipal councils and larger regional bodies, a system last seen in the mid-90s. It is almost 30 years since Strathclyde Regional Council, which covered a significant portion of west and central Scotland, and a further 19 district councils were scrapped in favour of the current unitary authorities. Mr Faulds suggests an Ayrshire-wide authority alongside 11 local 'municipalities' would be a more effective approach, with the restoration of some historic burgh councils like Ayr, Kilmarnock and Irvine, bringing them closer to residents. He told the Local Democracy Reporting Service said that the current size of councils was a barrier to engaging with local people. The average council in Scotland covers around 170,000 people. That compares to an average of 7,000 people across Europe. He said: 'I think in Scotland (and the UK as a whole) we have very little idea how completely back-to-front our idea of local representation is compared to our near neighbours. 'We obsess over preserving 'local' constituency representation in our national parliaments, whilst accepting increasingly huge 'local' councils as normal. 'On a human level, we very strongly associate with very local areas. I grew up in what is currently West Dunbartonshire and I strongly identify with the Vale of Leven as my hometown, but to this day have very little awareness of or affinity to Clydebank. 'I think part of why engagement with local politics is so low is because it's so distant from people. 'If it was more local, it would feel a lot more relevant, and it would also be a lot easier for people to participate in. 'Across almost anywhere else in Europe, big towns the size of Ayr, Kilmarnock and Irvine would have their own town councils, whilst smaller towns like Girvan, Cumnock and Largs would anchor more manageable sized districts. 'Combined urban-rural mega councils like the ones Scotland has are basically unheard of on the continent.' The report suggests that the three Ayrshire authorities could be split into smaller councils such as Ayr, Kilmarnock, Irvine, and districts for rural areas like Carrick & Doon Valley and the Isle of Arran. The Ayrshire region would be responsible for strategic services across a population in excess of 363,000 people, co-coordinating the services that would benefit from a more strategic approach. Across Scotland that would see Scotland's 32 unitary councils broken down into about 128 community-level municipalities with average populations around 40,000. Mr Faulds said that an Ayrshire Region would be a more appropriate upper-tier council than Strathclyde Regional Council and closely mirrors the historic county boundaries, reflecting an area with a strong shared identity. He added: 'If someone is from Ayrshire, they'll usually let you know – and the proposal taps into that sentiment, aiming to empower local pride at both town and regional levels.' One aspect of the report is its aim of reconnecting local government to traditional communities. Towns that once had their own councils, some with centuries of history, would get them back. The report explicitly speaks of 'restoring meaningful burgh status' to places like Ayr, Kilmarnock and Irvine. Mr Faulds believes that in villages or towns managed from far-off council headquarters, having a local council again might rekindle that civic pride and involvement. Smaller municipalities could celebrate and preserve their unique heritage more directly, whether it's Irvine's industrial roots or Girvan's rural traditions. Indeed, the report goes so far as to say that , until local government is ' geographically accessible to voters,' it can't be politically accessible nor truly representative. ' However, he also acknowledges the issues of confusion and duplication around two-tier local government that led to the last iteration lasting just 20 years. Critics warn of potential fragmentation and inefficiency if the map is splintered. The report also accepts the risks around a proliferation of councils, including more bureaucracy, officials and associated costs. It also recognises that small rural councils could struggle to manage their responsibilities, while residents could face confusion over which council to deal with on a range of issues. Modern technology may play a part in addressing some of the issues that plagued the previous two tier approach, reducing costs and making small councils less 'isolated'. A core question in any restructuring is who will deliver everyday services under the new system. Many services that touch residents' daily lives would likely remain local. For instance, a municipal Ayr Council or Kilmarnock Council could oversee housing, libraries, parks, waste collection and local planning – where local knowledge is invaluable. Small councils could also handle things like sports facilities, street cleaning, and perhaps nursery education and childcare, tailoring these to local needs. The regional body could take on strategic decisions, such as an Ayrshire-wide approach to public transport – coordinating bus and rail links between East, North and South Ayrshire – instead of the patchwork of separate plans today. It could also handle primary and secondary schooling across Ayrshire to ensure consistent standards and efficient use of resources, much as the pre-1996 Strathclyde Region managed education. Even critical areas like policing, fire and social care might come under the regional council's umbrella, introducing local oversight to services that are currently run nationally or by unelected boards. The goal is a clearer division: municipalities for local services and day-to-day community needs, and the region for strategic, region-wide functions. An Ayrshire regional authority might better address area-wide issues like hospital planning or major economic projects that no single small council could tackle alone. Meanwhile, truly local matters (like fixing a park or allocating council housing in a village) could see faster response when decided by a town council attuned to that community. You can find out more about the New Municipalism Project at
The Herald Scotland
13-06-2025
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
Calm down, Mr Sarwar - don't get too enthusiastic over Hamilton result
While the Labour win was indeed a surprise, it did not indicate a fundamentally different political environment than the one we had previously thought we were in, based on Scottish polling. As other analysts have pointed out since – including Ballot Box Scotland's Allan Faulds, who in these pages provided a sobering corrective to the wild narrative swing that took place last weekend – this was a by-election victory full of caveats. Read more I won't recount all of those caveats, but it suffices to say that going into the by-election, national polling suggested that, based on a proportional swing model, the SNP would win 33.7% of the vote, Labour 28%, and Reform UK 19.2%. The actual results were SNP on 29.4% (a 4.3-point gap), Labour on 31.6% (a 3.6-point gap), and Reform UK on 26.1% (a 6.9-point gap). As far as the SNP and Labour go, the polls had their results within the margin of error for a model of this kind. The only party that significantly outperformed their polling was Reform UK. As Dr Eoghan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher on the Scottish Election Study team, found by extrapolating the result in Hamilton to the whole of Scotland, if the result were replicated in next year's Holyrood elections then Labour would come third, with 23 seats to Reform UK's 26 seats and the SNP's 49. There's a lot more work for Scottish Labour to do to get back into power in Scotland, and this one by-election win isn't sufficient to suggest otherwise. As we are all reminded before by-elections, and as most of us seem to forget in their aftermath, we cannot draw grand conclusions from them about national politics. But Hamilton was, nevertheless, a shot across the SNP's bow, and not least because it pointed to significant fragility in the supposed SNP leads in what will be closely contested constituencies next year – putting at risk the projected, disproportionate plurality of seats the SNP are expected to win by dint of dominating the constituency results. Let's take a few widely cited models to sketch out where we expect these three parties to end up if the polls do not change dramatically by next May (which they might). Ballot Box Scotland currently expects the SNP to win 59 seats, Labour to win 21, and Reform UK to win 15; Professor Sir John Curtice's latest projection for the Sunday Times had the SNP on 54, Labour on 20 and Reform on 18, and Dr Kelly's model (using my poll averages as inputs) suggests the SNP on 62 seats, Labour on 16, and Reform on 17. My model would have the SNP on 60 seats, Labour on 17, and Reform on 17. The Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election was called after the death of SNP MSP Christina McKelvie (Image: PA) Read more by Mark McGeoghegan: Historically, a party winning the SNP's current level of constituency and regional list support would only win around 47 seats, even short of Professor Curtice's relatively low projection of 54. The SNP's projected overperformance is entirely a result of the split unionist vote, meaning that the SNP can win as little as a third of the constituency vote nationally while sweeping the vast bulk of Scotland's 73 constituency seats. However, if they failed to win those excess constituency seats, they would not be compensated for them with regional list seats, which are allocated proportionally. So, how fragile is this constituency boost? And what does it mean if more close contests, like Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, slip through the SNP's grasp? My model suggests that a swing of under 5% from the SNP to Labour, compared to current polling, is needed for the SNP to lose a further eight constituency seats. A further two are vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats in the same way, and six to the Conservatives. The swing from the SNP to Labour in Hamilton was, compared to the modelled result, around four points – enough to flip eleven of those 16 close seats. In other words, if the unmodelled swing away from the SNP in Hamilton is replicated elsewhere next May, the SNP would win eleven fewer seats than expected. Only a couple more would be needed to bring them down to the 47-seat mark. Why does this matter? Even with 54 seats, the SNP would likely be able to govern as a minority requiring the support of only one other party, likely the Greens or Liberal Democrats, to pass budgets and legislation. At 47 seats, they would need at least two partners unless Labour or Reform backed them, making the 2026-31 Scottish Parliament the first without a realistic two-party majority since 2011. That isn't necessarily a bad thing. Voters constantly tell us that they want politicians to work together, and establishing a more consensual style of politics has long been a lofty and distant goal of Scotland's political class. And it's an outcome our politicians should be preparing for in the background ahead of next year's elections. Of course, the respective leaders won't admit it in public, least of all John Swinney, as he pushes to secure a big enough minority to rely on the Greens and Liberal Democrats. Still, such an outcome looks much more likely today than it did two weeks ago. The Hamilton by-election result neither indicated that John Swinney's days as First Minister are numbered nor that Anas Sarwar is on track for Bute House. But it did send an obvious signal: the SNP's position is far more fragile than we thought, and little swings in local areas could dramatically change the complexion of the Scottish Parliament next year. Mark McGeoghegan is a Glasgow University researcher of nationalism and contentious politics and an Associate Member of the Centre on Constitutional Change. He can be found on BlueSky @
Daily Record
16-05-2025
- Politics
- Daily Record
Reform UK push Scottish Labour into third place in council by-election as SNP celebrate win
The result was described by one expert as "completely and utterly disastrous" for Labour. The SNP have won a local by-election in West Dunbartonshire, with Reform UK pushing Scottish Labour into third. Kevin Crawford came first in the Clydebank Waterfront ward after the resignation of the SNP incumbent. Elections expert Allan Faulds from the Ballot Box Scotland website said: 'Completely and utterly disastrous outcome for Labour here.' The result was effectively a hold for the SNP and the outcome confirmed the trend of Nigel Farage's party making sweeping gains at the expense of Labour. After first preferences, the SNP candidate was on 1059 votes, with Reform second on 768 and Labour in third on 739. The final result after stage eight of voting was the SNP on 1331, Reform UK behind on 919 and Labour trailing on 770 votes. Several Labour sources believe a similar trend is visible in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, and predict Farage's party will come second behind the SNP. A recent opinion poll also found Reform UK in line to win more seats than Labour at the next Holyrood election. Labour insiders admit the rise of Reform is harming the chances of Scottish party leader Anas Sarwar of becoming First Minister. This is a breaking news story - we'll bring you updates, pictures and video as it happens. Here you can get your must-see news, features, videos and pictures throughout the day from the Daily Record, Sunday Mail and Record Online. Get all the big headlines, pictures, analysis, opinion and video on the stories that matter to you. You can also check out our social media channels for live us on Twitter @Record_Politics for the latest news. Or you can catch all the action by following our team: @paulhutcheon, @andrewjquinn97 and @dennynews. We're on Facebook where you can join our Record Politics group for all our stories. We also have a weekly politics podcast, Planet Holyrood, which you can listen to Spotify or Apple music, or watch on the Daily Record YouTube channel. Don't forget to follow us on Instagram and TikTok for the best bits of the podcast.
Daily Record
12-05-2025
- Politics
- Daily Record
Election expert warns of Conservative collapse in South Ayrshire amid scandal and rise of Reform
Ballot Box Scotland's Allan Faulds said that the rise of Nigel Farage's party was already seeing them as a threat to the Tories. One of Scotland's top political analysts has warned South Ayrshire Conservatives that they could face collapse at the next local elections. Allan Faulds, who runs the Ballot Box Scotland website, says that the issues within the party, which has lost four members over the last week, combined with the rise of Reform UK could see a changed landscape when voters go to the polls in 2027. While acknowledging that there are specific local issues at play, he said: 'In general terms, Reform UK are polling at a level that in the absence of any information about the spread of their vote across a given council area, they should be treated as in contention in every ward in South Ayrshire. 'Given only a handful of those have multiple Conservative councillors as-is, that risks a complete collapse in Conservative numbers in 2027. '[They] could end up going from being so dominant as to get three Ayr West councillors back in 2017, to just one in 2027 for example.' South Ayrshire Council is already unrecognisable from the make up in 2022. While the Conservatives picked up the most seats, their share of the votes dropped from 43 per cent in 2017 to 33 per cent. The SNP, which had formed a coalition with Labour to form the administration in 2017, actually secured the most votes, with an increase in share of 3.9 per cent. It retained its nine seats, as did Labour with its five seats. However, no agreement on a coalition was reached between the two, opening the door to a Conservative administration, supported by independents. Since then the SNP faced a torrid time, losing four councillors. One, then group leader Peter Henderson, retired, while three others left the party – Chris Cullen to Alba, Group Leader William Grant and Mark Dixon becoming independents. The Conservatives saw Councillor Stephen Ferry quit the party, before the mass exodus the party has seen over the last week. The resignations have seen the number of independents swell. In 2017 there were just two, Councillors Alec Clark and Brian Connolly. This doubled in 2022, but now stands at 10 (11 if you take the sole Alba councillor Chris Cullen). South Ayrshire Council seats Independents 10 Conservatives 7 SNP 5 Labour 5 Alba 1
