Celtics face tough offseason choices. What potential paths could they take?

New York Times

3 days ago

Jayson Tatum's torn Achilles sent shockwaves through the NBA as the defending champion Boston Celtics will now be without their best player for quite a while. As a frame of reference, Kevin Durant tore his Achilles in the 2019 NBA Finals, missed the following season and said recently that it took two full years to feel right physically.
Advertisement
Having Tatum out that long changes the Celtics' calculus and team building for the foreseeable future. They were staring down a historically expensive 2025-26 roster, especially because the current collective bargaining agreement's much stiffer penalties for repeat luxury tax payers kick in and massively raise per-dollar costs the deeper those teams are into the tax.
Celtics president of basketball operations Brad Stevens and the front office have a challenging job ahead. With Tatum out, the Celtics can stay competitive, though not likely as high-end title contenders, while also setting the table for Tatum's return, though he may not be back at 100 percent until 2027.
Evaluating which players to keep and which to potentially trade requires many considerations. We'll examine some of those here, but first …
Even without anything for Al Horford or their other free agents, the Celtics have $230.6 million in existing contractual obligations for the 2025-26 season, including their team option on JD Davison and the full amounts for both Neemias Queta and Jordan Walsh, though both are only partially guaranteed. The second-apron threshold for 2025-26 should be $207.8 million, meaning the Celtics are currently $22.8 million into the second apron without Horford or filling out the roster. Complicating matters is the fact that, because there will be extremely few cap-space teams this summer, most trade partners are not able to take someone like Jrue Holiday ($32.4 million for next season) without sending salary back in return, though some or all of that could be rerouted to a third team with an asset or two.
It is also possible that new Celtics ownership will not see the second apron as a hard line, which I actually would have predicted before Tatum's injury, but that now seems much less palatable, as it would lead to a frozen draft pick and the significantly increased chance of seeing their 2032 pick moving to the end of the first round. Is that worth it for a team that will not be a serious contender? Not to me, but potentially to Bill Chisholm.
Advertisement
Here is a player-by-player breakdown of how I see the Celtics' decisions this offseason, including the player's age at the start of next season and their remaining contract after 2024-25:
Holiday is the big salary that would make the most sense for the Celtics to try to move. Even though they would sorely miss his defense, he has already taken a step back, and there are often steep drop-offs for players in their mid-30s who are not elite shooters. Boston's problem is that, presumably, other teams are seeing the same thing, and Holiday's diminished offense — his 11.1 points per game average was his lowest since his rookie season — makes it less likely that a potential trade partner sees him having unused capability on that end.
If another front office sees Holiday's contract as positive value, the Celtics should strike quickly, but (justifiably!) paying him produced a remaining obligation that is below water. As unpalatable as it may be, I would be willing to give up a modest asset like a late future first-round pick or the 28th selection this year to make it happen. Waiting increases the risk of a future downturn hurting his value further, and keeping Holiday makes it more likely they move another contributor who is likely more important to Boston's success in 2026-27 and beyond.
The Celtics had plenty of success before acquiring the Latvian big man, but his ability to space the floor and protect the rim is an important part of the theory of this roster as an elite title contender, even if he missed much of their 2024 playoff run. Porziņģis' injury history is obviously concerning, but the sheer lack of viable replacements makes moving him significantly less palatable.
This season, only 13 players 6-foot-10 or taller attempted six 3-pointers per 36 minutes (Porziņģis took 7.4 per 36), and only five of them have any real chance to play center defensively: Porziņģis, Myles Turner, Jaren Jackson Jr., Victor Wembanyama and Alex Sarr. That's not exactly a list of easily obtainable players. Beyond Horford's age and 2025 free agency, another key consideration is that Porziņģis hits unrestricted free agency next summer without an extension, so understanding what he wants and expects for his next deal helps determine both his viability on the team financially and what kind of overall obligation the team would be looking at long term if it retains him. My strong preference would be to keep Porziņģis because of his extraordinarily rare skill set, which should age reasonably well depending on health, even if this season ended so strangely for him.
Advertisement
Even considering trading the reigning NBA Finals MVP is a bold step, but Brown's combination of skill, production and positional scarcity brings a series of exciting potential suitors out of the woodwork who could not be involved in other negotiations with the Celtics. After all, everyone needs forwards, and the few who are dynamic on both ends of the floor are truly prized. Even so, Brown's massive contract and frustrating offensive season (32 percent on 3s, 53 percent on 2s, worst true shooting percentage since his third year) might mean that there is more downside risk than potential trade suitors are seeing or appreciating at the moment. On top of that, the Celtics likely being out of the title mix next season means they are leaning more on the later years of the contract, when Brown will be in his early 30s, while other teams can get more benefit from his 2025-26 production.
To be clear, this does not mean I would be in a rush to trade Brown or be happy in any way about doing so; it just may be the right time considering the Celtics' unexpected situation. The fascinating counter is that, in the 2027 playoffs, Brown will be 30 and Tatum will be 29 — both well within their primes if Tatum is close to 100 percent. Giving up a key part of what made the Celtics special for all these years, when there could be more championship window, would be a big, big decision.
White is older than some think due to his circuitous route to the NBA, but his shooting makes him more intriguing in his 30s than most guards. His salary — an average of about $32 million per season — may seem like a lot for a guard who does not run the offense, but the rapidly rising cap will make this look pretty pedestrian soon. In 2027-28, White's $32.6 million will be 17.42 percent of the estimated salary cap for that season, the equivalent of Kyle Kuzma's $24.5 million this season. While's game also fits beautifully with Tatum because he can defend multiple positions, shoot off the ball and be an opportunistic playmaker. Keeping White would be far preferable to keeping Holiday in the near and long term, but it is possible that a tough trade market for Holiday forces Stevens to at least have some conversations about White.
Pritchard is simultaneously too valuable on his current contract and receiving too low a salary to truly change the Celtics' finances. It would take a surprisingly robust offer to move him, even if the Sixth Man of the Year is likely best coming off the bench unless a team has a lot of playmaking at other positions in the starting lineup.
Hauser's $11 million a year is well below the midlevel exception even now, but Hauser has not shown enough game beyond his prodigious shooting (42 percent on nine or more 3s per 36 minutes each of the last three seasons) to make a front office confident he can be a consistent starter on a team with expectations. Even so, he has a more established résumé than Corey Kispert, who got an extension from the Washington Wizards worth more per season than Hauser, though it is important to note that Kispert's includes a team option at the end.
Like Pritchard, Hauser's salary is not enough to change the Celtics' books too much, plus he may take on a much larger role during Tatum's absence. His future with the franchise is likely dependent on whether guys higher up on the pecking order end up elsewhere rather than his own play.
It is beyond surreal for the still-reigning champions with a core largely in their prime to be facing these kinds of decisions, but the pain and beauty of the NBA is that situations can change quickly for a variety of reasons. The best organizations set themselves up for success while adjusting when necessary. Stevens and the Celtics have a fascinating, important job to do that will affect the league landscape for years to come.
(Top photo of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porziņģis: Steven Ryan / Getty Images)