Global job crunch of 50 million by 2030: India may supply migrant workforce

Business Standard

09-05-2025

By 2030, there will be a shortage of nearly 50 million workers in many economies like Germany, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US. A new report released on Tuesday at the launch of the Global Access to Talent from India (GATI) Foundation warns that this shortfall is expected to grow even further over the next two decades.
GATI has been set up to help bridge this demand-supply mismatch by supporting the legal and structured migration of Indian workers to international labour markets facing ageing populations and declining workforce numbers.
'The rate at which this shortage is growing — around 11–12% per annum — is outpacing the economic growth of any of these countries. In 25 years, that shortfall could reach 250 million. That's a staggering gap,' said Rajiv Gupta, Managing Director and Senior Partner at BCG, and the author of the report, in a conversation with Business Standard.
While several African economies also have labour surpluses, they often lack the infrastructure or governance systems to benefit from them. Gupta argued that India is uniquely placed to help fill this gap. 'It has a surplus of skilled and semi-skilled labour, a relatively young population, and a decent economic foundation,' he said. 'India already sends about 700,000 workers abroad each year, particularly in technology, healthcare, transportation, and hospitality. Indian talent is generally well-regarded globally.'
Countries with the largest projected labour shortages
USA: 11–12 million
UK: 5–6 million
South Korea, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic: 4–5 million each
Germany, Russia: 3–4 million each
Japan: 2–3 million
Canada, Gulf, Taiwan, Australia, Netherlands, Austria, Italy: 1–2 million each
Romania, Singapore, Bulgaria, Hong Kong: 0.5–1 million
This adds up to a shortfall of around 40–45 million workers.
GATI's approach to global talent migration
According to Gupta, the GATI initiative is structured around three broad areas: unlocking demand in other countries, strengthening India's labour supply, and building a long-term migration ecosystem.
'So, while there's a clear problem — global labour shortages — India has the potential to be part of the solution,' Gupta told Business Standard. 'That's where GATI comes in. If we get it right, India's labour exports could grow from 700,000 to as many as 2.5 million workers per year. That alone could add around $300 billion to our GDP through remittances.'
On the demand side, the report outlines ongoing efforts to open up overseas markets for Indian workers. In Eastern Europe, Indian authorities are pushing for recognition of Indian driving licences. Germany is expanding its Specialised Skilled Worker (SSW) visa route to cover more trades. In Japan, a six-month apprenticeship visa for Indians is being broadened to include new job categories.
Gupta said efforts are also under way to align Indian certification systems with global standards and negotiate visa relaxations with destination countries.
On the supply side, GATI is focusing on language and technical training to prepare workers for international roles. Private investment is being encouraged to expand training infrastructure, and there are plans to introduce soft-skills programmes tailored for customer-facing sectors. Gupta said there was a need for a robust industry-led framework that could track demand across specific sectors and geographies.
Institutional models and markets in focus
India is also studying labour-exporting models like the Philippines and Bangladesh. 'We're looking at models like the Philippines, which has an entire ministry dedicated to exporting labour, and Bangladesh, which has the Bureau of Manpower, Employment and Training. India needs a similar nodal agency to coordinate between stakeholders,' Gupta said.
India already has government-to-government migration agreements with several countries. These include:
— The Migration and Mobility Partnership Arrangement with Australia
— A similar agreement with Austria to promote mobility and combat illegal migration
— A partnership with Denmark that provides pathways for Indian professionals and youth
— The Comprehensive Migration and Mobility Partnership with Germany
— A Mobility and Migration Partnership Agreement with Italy
— The UK's Young Professionals Scheme, allowing up to 3,000 Indian nationals annually to live and work in the UK for two years
India is focusing on countries like the US, UK, Canada and the Gulf, where it already has a strong presence. Efforts are also being made to expand into Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and Singapore.
Sectors with growing demand for Indian talent include healthcare, domestic work, construction, sales, transportation, and hospitality. Newer areas being targeted include green jobs, infrastructure, and startup roles related to sustainability.
Barriers to migration
The GATI initiative recognises several structural barriers that still need to be addressed. These include limited recognition of Indian qualifications abroad, lack of support for returning migrants, and the risk of exploitation.
Language remains a challenge, especially in countries like Japan and Germany. 'That's a genuine concern,' said Gupta. 'But it's already being addressed. In Delhi alone, 58 government schools now offer Japanese as a language option — and those classes are full.' Private language institutes are also growing in number, much like the IT training boom of the 1990s.
Gupta said Indian states like Telangana have introduced measures to help returnees reintegrate into the domestic job market. 'That sort of confidence-building is vital if India wants more workers to consider overseas opportunities,' he said.
Political shifts and legal migration
Gupta acknowledged that immigration has become a political flashpoint in countries like the US, Canada and Australia. 'Yes, immigration was a key issue in all those elections. Australia has introduced changes — reducing intake in some categories, increasing in others. Canada has a roadmap until 2027. The US too is tightening in some areas.
'But most of the political debate focuses on illegal immigration. Legal, skilled migration is still a priority for all these countries because they simply do not have enough qualified people to fill roles.'
Skill demand by level
The report estimates that 70% of the projected demand will be for medium- and low-skilled workers.
Low-skilled roles:
Share of global demand: 50%
Estimated demand: 18–20 million
Medium-skilled roles:
Share of global demand: 20%
Estimated demand: 6–8 million
High-skilled roles:
Share of global demand: 30%
Estimated demand: 10–12 million
The report outlines eight key areas India must work on to scale up overseas employment:
1. Strengthen institutional coordination across central, state, and regional bodies
2. Establish best practices for government-to-government migration agreements
3. Enforce strong welfare protections for Indian workers abroad
4. Align Indian and international skill accreditation
5. Create financing options to support migration
6. Set up a national industry body for overseas mobility
7. Ease reintegration for returning migrants