Mamdani surges in new poll, leading Cuomo for first time in New York mayor's race

Politico

a day ago

NEW YORK — Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist who has been rising in the mayor's race, is now ahead of Andrew Cuomo with just two weeks until the Democratic primary, a new poll reviewed in full by POLITICO found.
The survey, conducted by Public Policy Polling for Democrat Justin Brannan's city comptroller campaign, found Mamdani beating Cuomo 35 percent to 31 percent — a difference that is narrowly within the 4.1 percent margin of error.
Cuomo has been the constant frontrunner since his March 1 entrance into the race to oust Mayor Eric Adams, with most publicly released polls showing him with comfortable leads. This new survey, which did not include a ranked-choice voting simulation, stands to signal a re-ordering of the highly unusual contest ahead of the June 24 election.
The poll of 573 likely Democratic voters was conducted between June 6 and June 7 — after nine candidates faced off in the first televised debate. The following day, June 5, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Mamdani, lending political star power to his campaign.
Thirty-nine percent of the poll's responses came from landlines and 61 percent from text messages — a methodology that favored Mamdani given his strength with those responding via text, according to the results.
The survey showed the race continuing to narrow to a two-person contest between the youngest and oldest candidates in the field. But it didn't offer respondents the chance to rank up to five candidates in order of preference, as they will be able to do on primary day.
A Cuomo campaign poll conducted by Expedition Strategies and shared with POLITICO earlier this week found the former governor leading Mamdani by 12 points, 56 percent to 44 percent, after eight rounds of voting. That poll was conducted over the same period as the Public Policy Polling survey showing Mamdani's lead. A separate survey by Data for Progress for a Mamdani-allied super PAC found Cuomo winning by 2 points, 51 percent to 49 percent, also after eight rounds.
'It's telling that the only polls showing this trend line are paid for by Zohran Mamdani Inc,' said Cuomo spokesperson Rich Azzopardi, referring to Mamdani's choice to cut a fundraising video for Brannan, though that video came after Brannan's team commissioned this poll. 'As you know, we have had a poll in the field at the same time and our poll showed a race with us maintaining what has now been a consistent double digit lead for more than three months — which is rare for any NYC Mayoral race in recent memory. It's not lost on us that Politico is the only NYC media outlet that continues to take these outlier polls.'
Mamdani's camp took a victory lap.
'When you run a disciplined, grassroots campaign relentlessly focused on an agenda to address the crises in working people's lives, these are the results,' Mamdani spokesperson Andrew Epstein said. 'New York City is so close to turning the page on the corrupt politics of the past and winning a future we can afford.'
The poll found the remaining candidates, some of whom have been running for far longer, nowhere near the two frontrunners.
City Comptroller Brad Lander was the choice of just 9 percent of those surveyed, despite his citywide platform, high rate of campaign spending and long history with New York's left-flank movement. His predecessor, Scott Stringer, who has roots on the vote-rich Upper West Side of Manhattan, received 5 percent. And City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams gained the support of only 4 percent of respondents, despite the high-profile endorsements of New York Attorney General Letitia James and municipal labor powerhouse District Council 37.
Support for Mamdani was strongest among white and Asian voters, but 27 percent of Black voters surveyed supported him, as did nearly one-third of Hispanic voters — an indication he is gaining multi-racial support among New Yorkers. Cuomo's lead with Black voters, remains particularly durable at 42 percent, the poll found.
Mamdani, a member of the state Assembly, has leveraged social media to gain attention in the crowded race, employing slickly produced videos highlighting his platform — like free bus service or government-run grocery stores. His voters don't seem to mind that he hasn't articulated a robust, realistic plan to pay for those programs.
What was once a long-shot candidacy by the 33-year-old candidate has evolved into a competitive effort to lead the nation's largest city.
Cuomo has sharpened his attacks against Mamdani in recent days by questioning his thin resume and ability to lead a complex city government. The two will face off in another debate Thursday night.