All hail the rise of the humanoid robots
Color me confused. After years of being told not to associate the word 'robots' with "Terminator"-type androids, recent news is chock-full of reports of humanoid robots running half marathons or performing dances and other gymnastic maneuvers.
Not only do I have to redraw my mental image of those devices — I'd gotten comfortable with Robot from the 1960s TV show, 'Lost in Space" — but there is also news that robots can now build themselves.
There is good reason to be scared — or at least concerned — but as usual, it's not what you think. Robotics is another of the critical emerging technologies, mastery of which will be central to 21st-century economic leadership. In combination with artificial intelligence, robotics can, and likely will, reshape industrial production on a paradigm-shifting scale. The next industrial revolution will proceed in the footsteps of its robotic participants.
Robots are big business. There were an estimated 4.3 million operational robots in 2023 and another 5 million consumer service robots — like those in a cafe in Shibuya — in operation. Revenue numbers vary. According to one estimate, sales will hit $50 billion this year. But Market Research Future reckoned that global sales exceeded $71 billion in 2023 and projects 18.2% annual growth will grow the market to $200 billion by 2030.
Robots, especially the industrial variety, are old news. Assembly lines have become increasingly automated, an evolution that has been key to Asia's industrial trajectory and its manufacturing successes. Japan has long been a leader in this field.
The buzz today surrounds humanoid robots, machines that try to mimic human actions. An authoritative analysis by Bank of America released last month anticipates that global sales of those machines will explode. It forecasts global sales of just 18,000 units this year which will grow to 1 million units in 2030 and 10 million in 2035, an 88% annual growth rate over the next 10 years. By 2060, BoA expects there to be 3 billion in operation, or one robot for every three people on the planet.
China is likely to be the chief beneficiary of that extraordinary growth. A Morgan Stanley report earlier this year concluded that 'China continues to show the most impressive progress in humanoid robotics where startups are benefiting from established supply chains, local adoption opportunities and strong degrees of national government support.'
Key to that incredible trajectory is a cost structure that rapidly decreases as parts are commoditized and mass production spreads. Some scoff at the idea of an 88% growth rate, but there's precedent: The BoA analysts note that the compound annual growth rate of passenger electric vehicle sales in China reached 90% in the decade between 2013 and 2023.
Reyk Knuhtsen of SemiAnalysis, an independent research and analysis firm that focuses on semiconductors and AI, warns that the analogy is apt: 'China has the potential to replicate its disruptive impact from the EV industry in the humanoid space.'
China's success is another example of the vision of — and resources behind — Made in China 2025, the 2015 strategic plan to transform Chinese industry and position the country to lead in the most important and competitive sectors of the 21st-century economy. Robotics is one of five strategic initiatives in the plan, one that aimed to introduce smart manufacturing and digitalization. In 2023, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology identified humanoid robots as the 'new frontier in technological competition.'
Beijing isn't the only government with this vision. A quick survey of 10 countries' lists of critical and emerging technologies revealed that all included robotics. Unfortunately, noted Knuhtsen, only China is positioned to achieve the EV-style breakthrough.
That reflects the country's leadership in the field. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute's Critical Technology Tracker puts China as number one in advanced robotics (with 34.5% of high-impact research outputs), followed by the United States (19.7%), the U.K., Italy and Germany. There is some dispute around the ASPI's methodology, but all agree that China's lead in the development of AI algorithms, when combined with its superior manufacturing capability, make that country the pacesetter in this sector.
Moreover, experts note that when it comes to manufacturing, 70% of the components of humanoid robots are interchangeable with those of EVs. So once again, leadership in one field — electric vehicles — generates spillover effects in other key technologies.
This is where it gets really interesting. Humanoid robots are sometimes called 'embodied AI' because they are intended to escape the two dimensions of the screen and allow their hardware to interact with the environment. In so doing, the robot learns and evolves.
He Han, a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) National Committee, China's top political advisory body, and CEO of Tianyu Digital Technology, told Beijing Review that 'This is an evolutionary revolution from mechanical shells to digital life forms.'
He added that 'Embodied intelligence deeply integrates AI into 3D physical environments, enhancing perception, comprehension, interaction and decision-making in real-world contexts. ... It vastly expands AI's depth and breadth of understanding, enabling more scientific, rational and adaptive decisions.'
It's only a slight exaggeration to call that "Terminator"-type material.
But it's the second dimension of this combination of hardware and AI that should keep you up at night. An important piece of that evolution is allowing robots to design the next generation of robots, a development that will transform production. For Knuhtsen, the impact of this is 'exponential compared to their last strategic industry captures.' He explained that 'robotics systems manufacturing more robotics systems, and with each unit produced the cost will be driven down continuously and the quality will improve, only strengthening their production flywheel. This will repeat ad infinitum.'
This process is under way. Tesla has a humanoid robot project, Optimus, that Elon Musk thinks could be a bigger business than his automobile venture. (Skeptics are skeptical.) Nvidia last month released GR00T N1, 'the first of a family of fully customizable models that NVIDIA will pretrain and release to worldwide robotics developers.'
For industry observers, however, China is setting the pace. Unitree Robotics, a Chinese company whose models can dance, as well as do standing front and side flips, has reportedly sold two humanoid robots and other Chinese manufacturers have announced plans to produce 5,000 units this year, which is also Optimus' goal. Other Chinese companies have introduced AI models that learn from watching videos.
Most significantly, Chinese supply chains are wholly domestic, uncoupled from foreign — read: U.S. — suppliers. That means that those companies capture the cost declines, a process we've already seen in the EV sector.
Industry observers warn of 'a DeepSeek moment' — when China's reduced costs, forecast to fall 70% over the next five years, upend traditional economic expectations for a new technology — or 'an iPhone moment' or 'a ChatGPT moment,' shorthand for the tipping point to mass consumption, and which is expected in three to five years.
And because this is a general purpose technology, one that is used throughout the economy, Knuhtsen warns that 'this time the disruption could extend far beyond a single industry, potentially transforming the labor force itself.' He concludes that this 'poses an existential threat to the U.S. as it is outcompeted in all capacities.'
Color me scared.
Brad Glosserman is deputy director of and visiting professor at the Center for Rule-Making Strategies at Tama University as well as senior adviser (nonresident) at Pacific Forum. His new book on the geopolitics of high-tech is expected to come out from Hurst Publishers this fall.
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Reyk Knuhtsen of SemiAnalysis, an independent research and analysis firm that focuses on semiconductors and AI, warns that the analogy is apt: 'China has the potential to replicate its disruptive impact from the EV industry in the humanoid space.' China's success is another example of the vision of — and resources behind — Made in China 2025, the 2015 strategic plan to transform Chinese industry and position the country to lead in the most important and competitive sectors of the 21st-century economy. Robotics is one of five strategic initiatives in the plan, one that aimed to introduce smart manufacturing and digitalization. In 2023, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology identified humanoid robots as the 'new frontier in technological competition.' Beijing isn't the only government with this vision. A quick survey of 10 countries' lists of critical and emerging technologies revealed that all included robotics. Unfortunately, noted Knuhtsen, only China is positioned to achieve the EV-style breakthrough. That reflects the country's leadership in the field. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute's Critical Technology Tracker puts China as number one in advanced robotics (with 34.5% of high-impact research outputs), followed by the United States (19.7%), the U.K., Italy and Germany. There is some dispute around the ASPI's methodology, but all agree that China's lead in the development of AI algorithms, when combined with its superior manufacturing capability, make that country the pacesetter in this sector. Moreover, experts note that when it comes to manufacturing, 70% of the components of humanoid robots are interchangeable with those of EVs. So once again, leadership in one field — electric vehicles — generates spillover effects in other key technologies. This is where it gets really interesting. Humanoid robots are sometimes called 'embodied AI' because they are intended to escape the two dimensions of the screen and allow their hardware to interact with the environment. In so doing, the robot learns and evolves. He Han, a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) National Committee, China's top political advisory body, and CEO of Tianyu Digital Technology, told Beijing Review that 'This is an evolutionary revolution from mechanical shells to digital life forms.' He added that 'Embodied intelligence deeply integrates AI into 3D physical environments, enhancing perception, comprehension, interaction and decision-making in real-world contexts. ... It vastly expands AI's depth and breadth of understanding, enabling more scientific, rational and adaptive decisions.' It's only a slight exaggeration to call that "Terminator"-type material. But it's the second dimension of this combination of hardware and AI that should keep you up at night. An important piece of that evolution is allowing robots to design the next generation of robots, a development that will transform production. For Knuhtsen, the impact of this is 'exponential compared to their last strategic industry captures.' He explained that 'robotics systems manufacturing more robotics systems, and with each unit produced the cost will be driven down continuously and the quality will improve, only strengthening their production flywheel. This will repeat ad infinitum.' This process is under way. Tesla has a humanoid robot project, Optimus, that Elon Musk thinks could be a bigger business than his automobile venture. (Skeptics are skeptical.) Nvidia last month released GR00T N1, 'the first of a family of fully customizable models that NVIDIA will pretrain and release to worldwide robotics developers.' For industry observers, however, China is setting the pace. Unitree Robotics, a Chinese company whose models can dance, as well as do standing front and side flips, has reportedly sold two humanoid robots and other Chinese manufacturers have announced plans to produce 5,000 units this year, which is also Optimus' goal. Other Chinese companies have introduced AI models that learn from watching videos. Most significantly, Chinese supply chains are wholly domestic, uncoupled from foreign — read: U.S. — suppliers. That means that those companies capture the cost declines, a process we've already seen in the EV sector. Industry observers warn of 'a DeepSeek moment' — when China's reduced costs, forecast to fall 70% over the next five years, upend traditional economic expectations for a new technology — or 'an iPhone moment' or 'a ChatGPT moment,' shorthand for the tipping point to mass consumption, and which is expected in three to five years. And because this is a general purpose technology, one that is used throughout the economy, Knuhtsen warns that 'this time the disruption could extend far beyond a single industry, potentially transforming the labor force itself.' He concludes that this 'poses an existential threat to the U.S. as it is outcompeted in all capacities.' Color me scared. Brad Glosserman is deputy director of and visiting professor at the Center for Rule-Making Strategies at Tama University as well as senior adviser (nonresident) at Pacific Forum. His new book on the geopolitics of high-tech is expected to come out from Hurst Publishers this fall.
