European Gas Slips But Futures Positioning Turns Bullish
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Yahoo
19 minutes ago
- Yahoo
All Eyes on Powell: Will Jackson Hole Speech Spark a Big Stock Market Move?
Key Takeaways Traders expect the S&P 500 to move about 0.8% in either direction through the end of the week, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday likely to be a driving force behind that move. Stocks jumped more than 1% the day of last year's Jackson Hole speech, when Powell signaled the Fed was ready to cut interest rates for the first time in 4 years. Analysts earlier this week expressed concern that investors were overly optimistic about the likelihood of a September rate cut, but expectations and stocks have drifted lower in recent days. Wall Street was on edge Thursday, with stocks trading lower as investors awaited what could be a pivotal policy speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell is scheduled to speak Friday morning at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Investors will be scrutinizing Powell's address for signs that the Fed is ready to resume cutting interest rates in September after nine months on hold. Powell's speech is the biggest event of the week for the stock market, and traders are positioning themselves accordingly. Options pricing suggests investors expect the S&P 500 to move about 0.8% in either direction through the end of this week. That's nearly twice the S&P 500's average daily move over the past month. Will History Repeat Itself at Jackson Hole? At last year's Jackson Hole, Powell declared the Fed was ready to begin cutting interest rates more than a year after policymakers hiked rates for the 11th and final time in their post-pandemic policy tightening campaign. 'The time has come for policy to adjust,' Powell said. 'With an appropriate dialing back of policy restraint, there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2 percent inflation while maintaining a strong labor market.' It was the news Wall Street was hoping for. The S&P 500 jumped more than 1% to trade just shy of an all-time high. Though for investors last year, seeing was believing; it wasn't until mid-September, when the Fed cut rates for the first time, that the index finally broke its previous record. Rate Cut Expectations—and Stocks—Are Falling Evercore ISI analysts warned in a note on Sunday that Powell's speech could deliver stocks a rough patch if Wall Street finds his comments inadequately dovish. 'For a market that was eager to embrace '50 in Sept', a balanced view could catalyze a near term -7% to -15% pullback into October,' the analysts wrote, referring to recent speculation that the Fed could make a jumbo, 50 basis point (bps) cut next month. Deutsche Bank economists are also worried about Wall Street's high hopes. In a note earlier this week, they expressed concern that Powell's comments, which they expect to be 'more balanced' than his last statement in July, 'could create uncertainty about September cut prospects, at least relative to current elevated pricing.' But expectations and stock prices have moderated in recent days. The S&P 500 fell in each of the last four sessions. If the index declines on Thursday, it will mark its longest losing streak this year. And in the last week, traders have become less confident of any rate cut, let alone a jumbo one, in September. Federal funds futures trading data put the odds of a 25 bps cut at about 72% on Thursday, down from 92% a week ago, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Read the original article on Investopedia Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
19 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Futu Holdings (FUTU) Ends 4-Day Losses on Stellar Earnings
We recently published . Futu Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:FUTU) is one of Wednesday's best performers. Futu Holdings snapped a four-day losing streak on Wednesday, jumping 6.01 percent to close at $178.66 apiece as investors cheered the company's stellar earnings performance in the second quarter of the year. In an updated report, Futu Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:FUTU) said net income more than doubled to HK$2.57 billion from HK$1.21 billion in the same period last year. Revenues grew by 69 percent to HK$5.3 billion from HK$3.13 billion year-on-year, on the back of higher brokerage commission and handling charge income, as well as increased interest income. Copyright: belchonock / 123RF Stock Photo In the first half, net income more than doubled to HK$4.7 billion from HK$2.24 billion, while revenues increased by 75 percent to HK$10 billion from HK$5.7 billion year-on-year. 'Trade policy-induced market volatility, coupled with a slate of high-profile IPOs, boosted retail sentiment in Hong Kong, which, for the third quarter in a row, contributed the highest number of new funded accounts across all markets. The US market also recorded solid growth. In the second quarter, we became the official sponsor of the New York Mets, further elevating our brand image in the US and beyond. We also launched crypto trading in most of the states in June, strengthening our value proposition as a one-stop trading platform,' said Futu Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:FUTU) Chairman and CEO Leaf Hua Li. While we acknowledge the potential of FUTU as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the .
The Hill
21 minutes ago
- The Hill
Paul Krugman: Trump administration ‘about to ICE the economy' with immigration crackdown
Nobel laureate Paul Krugman said in a Wednesday Substack post that the Trump administration is 'about to ICE the economy' with its immigration crackdown. 'I worry, as everyone should, about how a huge expansion of this deeply un-American organization may be used as a tool of presidential power and repression,' Krugman said in a Substack post, discussing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). 'Furthermore, give people power without accountability — and it's hard to give a better example than masked, unidentified agents authorized to use force — and some of them will abuse their position. And given what ICE has already been doing, what kind of people do you think are likely to sign up as it massively expands?' he added. 'Compared with these issues, concerns about the economic impact of mass deportations are definitely second-tier. But they're still important, and a subject I know something about. So the rest of this post will be devoted to how the Trump administration is about to ICE the economy.' Krugman argued in his Substack post that the U.S experiencing a mass loss of immigrant workers would cause negative economic disruption because they 'aren't spread evenly across the economy.' 'They're strongly concentrated in certain industries and occupations, where they constitute a large share, sometimes a majority, of the work force. As a result, the Trump administration's latter-day Edict of Expulsion will be far more disruptive to the economy than the aggregate number of workers deported might suggest,' he added. In the first few months of President Trump's second term, his administration has harshly cracked down on immigration. The new leader of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services said in a recent The New York Times interview that the Trump administration would make changes to the visa system for skilled workers and seek to change the test for U.S. citizenship to be harder. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said in a post on the social platform X last week that 'the world has heard our message: if you are in America illegally, LEAVE NOW.' 'In less than 200 days, 1.6 MILLION illegal immigrants have left the United States population. Under President Trump, we now have safer streets, better jobs for Americans, and less strain on schools, hospitals and social services,' Noem added in her post. Krugman added later in his Substack post that 'undocumented immigrants make up around 5 percent of the U.S. work force.' 'It seems plausible that a significant fraction of those workers will be pushed out, along with a number of legal workers snatched up based, as Trump's border czar has said, on their physical appearance. Losing large numbers of workers sounds as if it will be bad for the U.S. economy. In fact, it will be worse than you may think,' he continued.
