Ohio State mailbag: What would be a successful year? How good does Julian Sayin need to be?

New York Times

18-07-2025

It seems like Ohio State just walked off the field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium with the national championship trophy yesterday, yet here we are just two weeks away from the start of preseason camp.
You have a lot of questions about the reloading Buckeyes, so let's get to Part I of a two-part Buckeyes mailbag. Check back next week for more.
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The 'experts' at The Athletic have placed Julian Sayin in the fourth tier of quarterbacks for the upcoming season. He would have to play higher than that for the Buckeyes to have another great year. Your thoughts? — Crahans
I give Sam Khan and Antonio Morales a ton of credit for putting together a complete ranking of the projected starters around the country. I know that took a ton of work, so props to them.
Sayin is ranked No. 32, in the fourth tier, which includes a variety of young, unproven starters. He hasn't played a snap yet, so it's hard to say exactly what he'd need to do to reach the 'great' level you ask about. I think we have to be careful comparing what Sayin needs to do this year versus what other quarterbacks have had to do historically for Ohio State.
Will Howard won a national championship while throwing for 4,010 yards and 35 touchdowns in a program-record 16 games. He finished 23rd in the FBS in passing yards per game and third in pass efficiency, but he's not on the Mount Rushmore of Ryan Day quarterbacks in terms of talent. He did do a terrific job of doing everything Day asked of him.
So does Sayin need to be a top-10 quarterback for Ohio State to have a great year? I don't think so. If he becomes that, then there's little doubt Ohio State will be a contender, but I think the Buckeyes can achieve that even without Sayin reaching that mark in his first season starting.
Day and new play caller Brian Hartline aren't going to tell Sayin to throw the ball 35 times a game and live and die by his arm talent; they'll scheme things that work for him and the talent around him. He doesn't have to be an out-of-this-world quarterback to get the ball in the hands of Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate, Brandon Inniss and Max Klare, either.
What he does have to do is take care of the ball.
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Only one Day-coached quarterback has thrown double-digit interceptions in a year — that was Howard, who threw 10 in an expanded season — so that trend will need to continue.
If Sayin can limit turnovers, Ohio State will be in a good position. Let's just keep expectations for a redshirt freshman in check, even if he was a five-star recruit.
What do you consider a successful season this year? Beating the team up north? Making the natty? Big Ten championship? A combination? — Matt T.
Speaking of expectations, I think it's a combination.
The standard at Ohio State is always 10 wins in the regular season, at minimum. But I'd say the No. 1 priority right now is beating Michigan after four losses in a row in the rivalry. From there, I think whether Ohio State wins the Big Ten title or not doesn't matter a ton as long as it makes at least a Playoff quarterfinal appearance again. That's the baseline for a successful season, to me, with so much turnover on the roster.
Then you take that experience and make a run for another national title in 2026.
How fast before OSU overtakes Penn State in the rankings? I've never seen a team so overhyped. Drew Allar folds under pressure in every big game. Would you rather your team had Allar this year or Sayin? This year only. — G.R.
It's not a given that Penn State will be ranked ahead of Ohio State in the preseason AP and coaches polls, though our Stewart Mandel did have the Nittany Lions No. 2, two spots ahead of the Buckeyes, in his post-spring Top 25, so we'll see in a few weeks.
Regardless, if Ohio State beats Texas to open the year, it'll be the No. 1 team in the country going into the Grambling State game. Penn State doesn't play anyone of note until Oregon on Sept. 27.
Some people have a lot to say about Allar being overrated, but I don't know if I'd go that far right now. He's No. 6 on our list of projected starting quarterbacks, which I think is a fair spot. He has a chance to be a high draft pick next year, the physical traits are all there and I don't think we've seen him play his best ball yet because of the lack of weapons Penn State had at wide receiver (something the Nittany Lions have attempted to correct through the portal).
If you put him on Ohio State this year, I think people would be talking much more about the Buckeyes winning back-to-back titles, to be honest.
I like Sayin a lot, but he's young and unproven. If you're asking me who the better quarterback is right now, it's Allar.
Still, for where Ohio State is, I'd take Sayin because there's a bright future brewing for Ohio State's young players that could all come together for another title run in the next year or two with him at quarterback. And I think it's time Ohio State begins rebuilding and developing its quarterback room after having to go to the portal last year and struggling for consistency with Kyle McCord.
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How truly competitive is the QB competition? Day talks about it like it's really close, but he always says stuff like that in QB comps. What concerns me more is chatter that neither QB has separated himself. If that's true, is that because both are underwhelming? Or because both look great? — Michael H.
The way I've been describing the quarterback battle is it's more like Devin Brown vs. Kyle McCord in 2023 than Will Howard vs. Brown last offseason.
Last year, there was a 'QB competition,' but I don't think Howard was ever going to be the backup after transferring from Kansas State. The year before, though, Brown and McCord went back and forth all the way into the season.
This year's battle between Sayin and Lincoln Kienholz seems more like the latter because the spring was truly a back-and-forth affair. It says a lot that when the receivers go to California to work out together, they are with both Sayin and Kienholz.
Both have good qualities, but they were inconsistent in the spring. I wouldn't quite say underwhelming; it was kind of what you'd expect from two players who played a total of 35 snaps last season. Only 14 of those were passing snaps, and all of them went to Sayin. They just don't have experience being the guy right now.
Though I think Sayin had the slight lead leaving the spring game, it could change after the first camp weekend if he doesn't build off what he did then.
Ultimately, I think it'll be Sayin starting, but I could see this dragging right up to Texas week.
In the last couple of decades of watching Ohio State football, it's been common to see them have high highs (winning a championship) followed by a period of good, but not great, football. Is there any reason to be optimistic that Ohio State could have a season better than history might project us to believe it will be? In other words, could they realistically contend for a championship this year? — Tim W.
I would disagree with the idea that Ohio State has been 'good, but not great' after winning championships. After Ohio State won the 2002 title, it went 11-2 and won the Fiesta Bowl in 2003, finishing No. 4 in the AP poll. And after winning the inaugural College Football Playoff in 2024, Ohio State probably should've won back-to-back titles but lost to Michigan State and still finished 12-1 and ranked No. 4 again.
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No team has had a more consistent 21st century than Ohio State, so when we say 'good but not great,' you mean good, but coming up short of a title.
Can Ohio State be a title contender this year? Yes.
But a bit more parity has crept back into college football now and the only team to win back-to-back titles in the Playoff era is Georgia in 2021 and 2022.
I think there's a handful of true contenders this year: Texas, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Penn State, Georgia, Oregon, Clemson, Alabama and maybe LSU. That's nine teams, so a trip to the quarterfinal would be a good season and anything after that would be great.
I think that's realistic for a team that lost 14 NFL Draft picks but returns the best receiving corps in the country, one of the deepest tight end groups, the best safety and a talented secondary.
As long as Ohio State can avoid some early traps against Washington and Illinois, it's realistic to think it will be in that conversation again.
Will the Buckeyes win it all? I'd bet against it right now, but the sport is extremely unpredictable.
(Top photo of Julian Sayin: Ben Jackson / Getty Images)