‘People are very frightened': Summer Ontario tourism feeling Trump tariff chill

Global News

28-05-2025

Since U.S. President Donald Trump took office and began imposing tariffs on Canada, there has been a concerted effort by many Canadians to shop local and to not travel south of the border.
But while the traffic has slowed heading to the U.S., causing some issues for the tourism industry down south, there has also been a decline in the number of Americans heading in the opposite direction as well.
According to StatCan, the number of U.S. residents entering Canada by air fell 5.5 per cent in April year over year while the number making their way across the border in a car dropped 10.7 per cent, a figure which equates to around 82,000 less people visiting the Great White North.
While this may seem like a smallish figure, this an issue for those who make a living off tourism in Northern Ontario, where many Americans travel to take advantage of the abundance of fishing and wildlife.
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'If you start at the Quebec border and you work way across to the northwestern border at Manitoba, the American percentage, the percentage of American clientele go from about 50 per cent all the way up to 100 per cent as you go west and further north,' Nature & Outdoor Tourism Ontario executive director Laurie Marcil explained.
'Our U.S. guests love remoteness. They love what we have.'
But the tourism industry has been working to bring the Americans back since the dark days of the pandemic and were approaching pre-pandemic levels in 2025.
'In March and April, we heard from operators that this was looking like a really good season, it still is, and that numbers seem to be creeping back up on the American side,' Marcile explained
'So that was really good news. Definitely good news, but yes, we are starting to see cancelations coming in May.'
Both Marcil and David MacLachlan, who serves as the executive director of Destination Northern Ontario, say their memberships have said there is some concern from some Americans about whether they would be safe when they travelled north of the border.
'Some people have had cancelations you know for the reasons of that people like are questioning 'are they going to be safe?' while they're here,' MacLachlan told Global News.
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Marcil said there were issues when the tariffs first set in with American tourists having issues with border guards over the groceries they were attempting to bring into Canada but that they have since been cleared up.
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But she noted, 'a negative experience, that goes far and wide nowadays with social media. So it's making sure that we're kind of nipping those things.'
Professor Wayne Smith, who serves as the director of the Institute for Hospitality and Tourism Research at Toronto Metropolitan University, said that safety is vital to the tourism industry.
'We're a safety industry. If people don't feel safe, they won't travel. We saw that during COVID, and we'll see that now,' he explained.
But he believes that safety is not the only factor affecting U.S. tourism as there are economics playing a part as well.
'What we're seeing in the States is a little different than what you're seeing here,' Smith offered. 'In that it's not a political thing so much in the States as an economy thing.'
He noted that when there is a decline in the travel sector, it is usually one of the first signs that the economy is tanking.
Smith also noted that cuts to the public sector by the Trump administration as well as job losses at American schools are both employment area which would normally be secure in times of recession, causing people to cut travel budgets.
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MacLachlan said his organization had done surveys which backed up the idea that the financial picture south fo the border was playing a part in travel
Our members 'did a survey of U.S. fishermen, so their traditional U. S. fishermen clientele, to figure out why they weren't coming to Canada, and most of it was related at that time to economic reasons,' MacLachlan said.
'You know, we had significant inflation in both countries and it seemed to be that was the predominant reason why people weren't coming to Canada.'
But he also noted that lately, geopolitical factors have started to weave their way into the travel picture as much as the economic picture.
While the number of Americans is in slight decline, domestic bookings are helping to fill some of the void.
'We are hearing reports that there are more domestic market bookings, which is great,' Marcil said. 'I am hearing from other provinces, people looking at Ontario for travel as well, which was fantastic.'
While some of the impact of less U.S. tourist visits to Northern Ontario can be negated by Canucks staying home, they will not replicate the spending of American visits.
'Some of the studies that we've done in the past show that an American guest will spend, I think it's four times what a domestic person will spend what a Canadian will spend on the trip,' Marcil said.
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The American visits don't just provide restaurant visits and hotel stays, they also provide growth to our overall economy.
'If I went to a restaurant in Toronto, that's still money that's being spent in Ontario, right?' Smith explained. 'As opposed to when you get an American, that new money into the economy. So it's export dollars. And those are very valuable and those are what you use to build an economy.'
So what can the Ontario travel industry do amidst all of the turmoil going on south of the border to keep the Yankees from staying home?
The organizations say they have been collectively working on marketing efforts south of the border to make sure Americans know they will be welcome here.
'We are just trying to make sure that people know that they'll be welcome here,' MacLachlan said.
The low dollar is also a huge advantage for Americans heading north of the border, but do they know it?
'With the exchange rate, Americans are generally getting 30 per cent off everything,' Smith said. 'But most Americans have no idea what the exchange rate is. Other than being in border towns, they never even think about it.'
The TMU professor said with politics and the economy involved, the situation may be out of the hands of Canadians.
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'It's a challenge because I don't think this is a Canadian thing,' he said. 'I think this a internal U.S. thing where people are very frightened for whatever reason.
'It could be economic-frightened, it could be political-frightened, it could social-frightened, all these things. And people don't travel a whole lot when they're scared.'
Smith feels that they should shift some of the spending over to Europe in an effort to replace some of what may be lost by less U.S. visits.
'If I was to take marketing dollars, I would get really aggressive with Europe and those European tourists,' Smith said. 'The euro is so strong versus the Canadian dollar is a heck of a deal to come to Canada right now. And Europeans love to travel.
'But they're not going to replace the U.S. market because it's so much easier (to travel to Ontario).'