Liver cancer to double worldwide, but preventable: Study
New cases of liver cancer -- the sixth most common form of the disease -- will rise to 1.52 million a year from 870,000 if current trends continue, according to data from the Global Cancer Observatory published in the Lancet medical journal.
It is also the third deadliest of all cancers, with the study predicting it would take 1.37 million lives by the middle of the century.
However, three out of five cases of liver cancer could be prevented, the international team of experts said.
The risk factors are drinking alcohol, viral hepatitis, and a build-up of fat in the liver linked to obesity called MASLD, which was previously known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.
The viruses that cause hepatitis B and C are expected to remain the leading causes of liver cancer in 2050, according to the study, published on World Hepatitis Day.
Vaccination at birth is the best way to prevent hepatitis B, but vaccine coverage remains low in poorer countries including in sub-Saharan Africa, the study said.
Unless vaccination rates are increased, hepatitis B is expected to kill 17 million people between 2015 and 2030, it added.
Alcohol consumption is estimated to cause more than 21 percent of all cases of liver cancer by 2050, up more than two percentage points from 2022.
Cancer due to obesity-linked fat in livers will rise to 11 percent, also up more than two percentage points, the researchers calculated.
The large-scale study, which reviewed the available evidence on the subject, underscored "the urgent need for global action" on liver cancer, the authors said.
The experts called for more public awareness about the preventable danger of liver cancer, particularly by warning people with obesity or diabetes about fatty-liver disease in the United States, Europe and Asia.
The commission, led by Jian Zhou from Fudan University in Shanghai, also proposed measures to reduce the number of hepatocellular carcinoma cases by 2% to 5% annually."
"Asia, particularly affected
The commission analysed hundreds of studies on hepatocellular carcinoma and developed projections for its increase up to 2050across different world regions. It also considered factors such as population, ageing, and the prevalence of hepatitis infections, which can contribute to the disease.
The focus was on this specific type of
liver
cancer, which originates in
liver
cells, while other types of
liver
cancer were excluded.
The commission predicts an increase in annual new cases of hepatocellular carcinoma from 0.87 million in 2022 to 1.52 million in 2050, representing a 76% rise.
The highest numbers, both today and in 2050, are expected in Asia, where more than 70% of all global cases occur. The largest increase, albeit from a low starting point, is anticipated in Africa, with an increase of approximately 145%.
Europe is projected to see the most favourable trend among all continents, with annual new cases rising by 30% and deaths by 36% 2050.
Liver
cancer is often linked to preventable risk factors
A significant proportion of hepatocellular carcinoma cases could be prevented, the commission stated. Around 60% of cases are caused by known risk factors: the viral infections hepatitis B and hepatitis C, as well as alcoholic and non-alcoholic fatty
liver
disease.
The commission expects varying trends for these causes by 2050. Whilethe share of cases linked to viral infections is expected to declineslightly - hepatitis B from 39% to 37% and hepatitis C from 29% to26% - the proportion of cases due to alcoholic fatty
liver
disease isprojected to rise from 19% to 21%, and those caused byobesity-related fatty
liver
disease from 8% to 11%."
As three in five cases of
liver
cancer are linked to preventable risk factors, mostly viral hepatitis, alcohol and obesity, there is a huge opportunity for countries to target these risk factors, prevent cases of
liver
cancer, and save lives," said lead author Stephen LamChan from the Chinese University in Hong Kong .
The commission recommends, among other measures, increasing hepatitis B vaccinations and testing adults for hepatitis C to enable early treatment.
Additionally, alcoholic beverages should carry warning labels, become more expensive, and advertising for them should be banned. Regular
liver
screenings should also be conducted for individuals in high-risk groups.
According to Germany's Centre for Cancer Registry Data at the RobertKoch Institute (RKI), approximately 5,700 people in Germany are newly diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma each year, out of a total of 9,800
liver
cancer cases.
Men are more than twice as likely to develop
liver
cancer as women.
For both genders, the median five-year survival rate is about 17%.
Symptoms of
liver
cancer, according to German Cancer Aid, include general weakness, tenderness in the upper right abdomen, unexplained weight loss, fluid accumulation in the abdominal cavity, and yellowing of the skin and eyes.
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Observer
6 days ago
- Observer
Liver cancer to double worldwide, but preventable: Study
Paris - The number of people with liver cancer will nearly double worldwide by 2050 unless more is done to address preventable causes such as obesity, alcohol consumption, and hepatitis, a study warned Tuesday. New cases of liver cancer -- the sixth most common form of the disease -- will rise to 1.52 million a year from 870,000 if current trends continue, according to data from the Global Cancer Observatory published in the Lancet medical journal. It is also the third deadliest of all cancers, with the study predicting it would take 1.37 million lives by the middle of the century. However, three out of five cases of liver cancer could be prevented, the international team of experts said. The risk factors are drinking alcohol, viral hepatitis, and a build-up of fat in the liver linked to obesity called MASLD, which was previously known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. The viruses that cause hepatitis B and C are expected to remain the leading causes of liver cancer in 2050, according to the study, published on World Hepatitis Day. Vaccination at birth is the best way to prevent hepatitis B, but vaccine coverage remains low in poorer countries including in sub-Saharan Africa, the study said. Unless vaccination rates are increased, hepatitis B is expected to kill 17 million people between 2015 and 2030, it added. Alcohol consumption is estimated to cause more than 21 percent of all cases of liver cancer by 2050, up more than two percentage points from 2022. Cancer due to obesity-linked fat in livers will rise to 11 percent, also up more than two percentage points, the researchers calculated. The large-scale study, which reviewed the available evidence on the subject, underscored "the urgent need for global action" on liver cancer, the authors said. The experts called for more public awareness about the preventable danger of liver cancer, particularly by warning people with obesity or diabetes about fatty-liver disease in the United States, Europe and Asia. The commission, led by Jian Zhou from Fudan University in Shanghai, also proposed measures to reduce the number of hepatocellular carcinoma cases by 2% to 5% annually." "Asia, particularly affected The commission analysed hundreds of studies on hepatocellular carcinoma and developed projections for its increase up to 2050across different world regions. It also considered factors such as population, ageing, and the prevalence of hepatitis infections, which can contribute to the disease. The focus was on this specific type of liver cancer, which originates in liver cells, while other types of liver cancer were excluded. The commission predicts an increase in annual new cases of hepatocellular carcinoma from 0.87 million in 2022 to 1.52 million in 2050, representing a 76% rise. The highest numbers, both today and in 2050, are expected in Asia, where more than 70% of all global cases occur. The largest increase, albeit from a low starting point, is anticipated in Africa, with an increase of approximately 145%. Europe is projected to see the most favourable trend among all continents, with annual new cases rising by 30% and deaths by 36% 2050. Liver cancer is often linked to preventable risk factors A significant proportion of hepatocellular carcinoma cases could be prevented, the commission stated. Around 60% of cases are caused by known risk factors: the viral infections hepatitis B and hepatitis C, as well as alcoholic and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. The commission expects varying trends for these causes by 2050. Whilethe share of cases linked to viral infections is expected to declineslightly - hepatitis B from 39% to 37% and hepatitis C from 29% to26% - the proportion of cases due to alcoholic fatty liver disease isprojected to rise from 19% to 21%, and those caused byobesity-related fatty liver disease from 8% to 11%." As three in five cases of liver cancer are linked to preventable risk factors, mostly viral hepatitis, alcohol and obesity, there is a huge opportunity for countries to target these risk factors, prevent cases of liver cancer, and save lives," said lead author Stephen LamChan from the Chinese University in Hong Kong . The commission recommends, among other measures, increasing hepatitis B vaccinations and testing adults for hepatitis C to enable early treatment. Additionally, alcoholic beverages should carry warning labels, become more expensive, and advertising for them should be banned. Regular liver screenings should also be conducted for individuals in high-risk groups. According to Germany's Centre for Cancer Registry Data at the RobertKoch Institute (RKI), approximately 5,700 people in Germany are newly diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma each year, out of a total of 9,800 liver cancer cases. Men are more than twice as likely to develop liver cancer as women. For both genders, the median five-year survival rate is about 17%. Symptoms of liver cancer, according to German Cancer Aid, include general weakness, tenderness in the upper right abdomen, unexplained weight loss, fluid accumulation in the abdominal cavity, and yellowing of the skin and eyes.
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