Democrats prevail in Wisconsin while GOP holds the line in Florida: 3 takeaways

USA Today

02-04-2025

Democrats prevail in Wisconsin while GOP holds the line in Florida: 3 takeaways
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Democrats were able to let out a sigh of relief this week after the liberal contender prevailed over President Donald Trump's preferred candidate in Tuesday's closely watched Wisconsin Supreme Court election.
Despite being a nonpartisan race, the Badger State contest served as a national proxy battle for Democratic officials and progressive groups, who are grasping at any glimmer of hope amid Trump 2.0's dominance in Washington that has expanded to other parts of the country and culture.
Further south, Republicans did keep hold of two Florida congressional seats that will send House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., some much needed reinforcements for his razor-thin majority.
But even in those races Democrats held their chin up and declared they had done better than expected in Trump's political backyard.
GOP leaders largely dismissed the results and point out that Democrats remain in the gutter in terms of popularity, but political observers note all together this marks the first true electoral test of Trump since returning to power, and could be the first cracks in his political armor as he sharpens his legislative agenda for the summer.
Here are the important takeaways from Tuesday's contests.
Crawford outpaced Harris' 2024 margins in Wisconsin
Wisconsin is known for nail-biter elections but voters didn't take long to deliver the message when Judge Susan Crawford, who was backed by the state Democratic Party was declared the winner over Judge Brad Schimel, who was endorsed by Trump, far earlier than expected on Tuesday evening.
The victory will give liberals a 4-3 edge on the state's high court for at least the next three years, which will be critical on issues such as abortion, union rights and elections including the 2028 presidential contest.
Both candidates embraced their partisan supporters, but what stands out is how much better Crawford did when compared to former Vice President Kamala Harris in key Wisconsin counties.
The 60-year-old judge, for example, outpaced Schimel by 6 percentage points in Kenosha County, which is part of the Chicago metro area, whereas Harris lost by the same amount four months earlier.
Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said the national party is doing what it can to rebuild infrastructure, and that starts with winning local elections.
"The only thing we can do at this moment as Democrats is, because we don't have power in Washington right, is to win elections," Martin told USA TODAY.
'Beat the billionaire': Musk's role blasted as liability question boils
Immediately after Crawford was projected to have won, Democrats and their allies cast the win as a rebuke of the world's richest person, billionaire Elon Musk, who inserted himself directly in a race that saw more than $100 million in total spending.
Leading up to the election, Trump's top man at DOGE was making it rain money on the state. Musk doled out about $20 million of his own money to boost Schimel. He even handed out two checks for $1 million each to voters and sported a Green Bay Packers "cheesehead" at a rally ahead of Tuesday's contest.
"Wisconsin beat the billionaire," Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the former Democrat vice presidential nominee, said in a post on X.
The Crawford campaign − which received financial backing from liberal-leaning billionaires such as George Soros and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker − didn't shy away from anchoring Schimel to Musk, who is far less popular than the president and has become the Democrats favorite target.
About 51% of Americans have a negative view of the tech innovator versus roughly 39% who think of him positively, according to a national NBC News survey.
Wisconsin voters may have accelerated a brewing conservation within the Trump administration and the GOP at-large of whether Musk and his continue presence in the White House is becoming a problem they cannot ignore much longer.
Republicans hold Florida seats as House majority begins to show cracks
It wasn't all doom and gloom for the GOP, which easily replaced former Reps. Mike Waltz and Matt Gaetz with fellow Republicans in the Sunshine State's two special elections.
The expected wins give Trump — at least for the moment — a bit more breathing room for his legislative agenda which is always tricky in the House given Republicans currently hold a 218-213 edge over Democrats. That majority fell apart this week, for instance, when nine GOP members bucked their leadership to join Democrats to stop a rule change that would have prohibited new parents from voting by proxy.
Democrats didn't let the GOP wins on Tuesday go without adding their two cents, arguing the margins in both races show their candidates did far better than they should have in two districts that are solidly conservative.
In Florida's 6th Congressional District, Waltz won by 33% last fall but preliminary results show Republican Randy Fine winning by about 14%. Similarly, in the 1st Congressional District, Gaetz coasted to a win by 32% last time around but Republican Jimmy Patronis won by roughly 14% as well, according to Florida election data.
Democrats were eager to point they cut those margins in half but GOP stalwarts weren't impressed and dismissed the notion that either result gives their opposition bragging rights.
"Remember, they're special elections," Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., told USA TODAY. "You know when there's a presidential race, everybody knows who to vote, right? Even a governor's race, but when there's a special election, it's hard to get people to go out and vote."
Contributing: Sudiksha Kochi