Poll suggests Alberta voters' honeymoon with Danielle Smith and UCP endures

CBC

28-05-2025

EDITOR'S NOTE: CBC News commissioned this public opinion research to be conducted immediately following the federal election and leading into the second anniversary of the United Conservative Party's provincial election win in May 2023.
As with all polls, this one provides a snapshot in time.
This analysis is one in a series of articles from this research. More stories will follow.
As Premier Danielle Smith approaches the halfway point in her mandate, over half of Albertans continue to support her United Conservative Party, according to a CBC News poll.
"It's really quite amazing that two years in, she continues to enjoy a honeymoon," said Calgary-based pollster Janet Brown, who conducted the random survey of 1,200 Albertans between May 7 and 21 for CBC News.
"We haven't seen a honeymoon last this long for a politician since the Ralph Klein days," Brown added.
Twenty-four months after Smith's United Conservative Party defeated Rachel Notley's Alberta New Democrats, the polling suggests the premier continues to hang on to the support that propelled her to a majority in 2023. Now, 52 per cent of decided and leaning Alberta voters say they'd cast a ballot for the UCP.
The poll suggests the UCP would cruise to a majority, winning 61 ridings, while the NDP could drop from the 38 seats it won in 2023 to 26 seats in the provincial legislature.
In the 2023 election, the UCP won with 52.6 per cent of the vote and 49 seats. The NDP captured 44 per cent of the vote share, mostly in Alberta's two major cities.
The recent poll suggests nearly four in 10 Albertans (38 per cent) would vote NDP. Seven per cent of respondents said they remain undecided.
"The numbers are soft for the NDP right now," said Brown in an interview with CBC News. "Approval numbers for the leader are soft right now. It is tough times for the NDP."
Albertans' positive impressions of Smith, in contrast, have ticked up over the past year, according to the survey.
Improving impression of Smith
The governing UCP embarked on an ambitious — and often controversial — agenda since winning power two years ago.
Despite worries about " confusion and chaos" from front-line workers regarding the breakup of Alberta's health ministry and the lingering public concerns over an Alberta-only pension plan and establishing a provincial police force, four in 10 Albertans gave Smith high marks on a scale from zero to 10 for how impressed they are with the premier.
CBC News spoke with more than dozen people on Calgary's International Avenue and in the community of McKenzie Towne on Monday about the UCP's leader. Voters who liked Smith called her honest and admired how she stands up for Alberta and ​​isn't afraid to say what's on her mind.
The voters disappointed with Smith who spoke to CBC News in Calgary were most likely to mention health care or her support for citizen-initiated referendums.
Many Alberta voters remain impressed with Smith.
"She'd probably make a really good prime minister, actually," voter Natasha Smith told CBC News.
Last year, Smith's overall favourable impression rating was 4.5 out of 10. This year, Smith's overall rating ticked up to 4.7.
Consistent with CBC News polling from last year, more than four in 10 of those surveyed (41 per cent) give the premier low marks between zero and three, while another 16 per cent gave her a middle-of-the-road rating between four and six.
"When Danielle Smith was first elected leader of the UCP, Albertans were very cautious," said Brown. "The longer that they know Danielle Smith, the more comfortable they're getting with her."
Smith's persistent hardline posture with the federal Liberal government appears popular with Alberta voters.
Three-quarters of respondents who support holding a referendum on Alberta breaking away from Canada also rank Smith between seven and 10.
And almost seven in 10 (69 per cent) of those Albertans who approve of Smith's efforts to reset the Prairie province's relationship with the federal government give the premier high marks.
Calgarian Lisa Farrell shares that view, saying she likes Smith's support for the province's oil and gas industry.
"I think she's really good," said Farrell, whose husband lost his job in the oilpatch last year. "I think she's doing a good job for the province and I think she's standing up for us and sticking up for us."
Smith's impression scores have risen dramatically since she became premier in the fall of 2022. At that time, 54 per cent of Albertans said they were not at all impressed by the former talk radio host and Wildrose Party leader.
Not everyone's opinion of the premier has improved, according to the Albertans CBC News spoke with on Monday.
Calgary voter Dave Gibson remains unimpressed with Smith, citing the UCP overhaul of Alberta's health-care system.
"She's kind of pulling apart Alberta Health.… It's not that broken. Don't try and fix it.… So, I'm not a fan," Gibson told CBC News on Monday.
Naheed Nenshi, who won the leadership of Alberta's NDP last summer, received an average impression rating of 4.1 in the poll.
Nearly three in 10 Albertans (27 per cent) gave the former Calgary mayor top marks, but four in 10 were not impressed with the NDP leader. Ten per cent remain unsure.
In comparison, only three in 10 Albertans gave Nenshi's predecessor, Rachel Notley, low scores in the spring of 2023.
"When Rachel Notley resigned and we heard that Nenshi was going to be running, there was all sorts of excitement. He was seen as a powerful political communicator," said Brown. "But things seem to have fizzled out since the leadership race. He's having a hard time winning Albertans over at the moment."
Love them or hate them, Albertans, on average, think the leaders of the two main parties are more ideologically extreme than them.
Middle-of-the-road voters see leaders as more extreme
When it comes to ideology, the survey suggests Albertans see themselves as pretty middle-of-the-road on the left-right spectrum.
On average, Albertans skewed slightly right at 5.8 when asked to place themselves on a scale from zero to 10, where zero means left and 10 means right.
Using the same scale, Albertans polled said Smith was to the right of them at 7.9 out of 10.
And they think Nenshi is to the left of them at 2.9 out of 10.
"There's people who don't quite know where he stands, so I think his biggest problem is to get Albertans to understand what he is as leader of the NDP," said Brown.
"And then I think he has to show Albertans that he can hold views that are closer to the centre, that he's not a left-wing extremist on every issue they care about."
NDP support drops in Edmonton and among young voters
Nicknamed "Redmonton" for its almost unwavering support for the NDP, enthusiasm for the party has dropped considerably in the capital since the 2023 election, according to the CBC News poll.
Nearly six in 10 Edmontonians (58 per cent) voted for the NDP in the last provincial election.
Poll results show the NDP and governing UCP in a statistical tie right now, with 47 per cent of Edmontonians saying they'd cast a ballot for the NDP and 44 per cent saying they prefer the United Conservative Party.
The UCP, which captured 50 per cent of the vote in Calgary in the provincial 2023 vote, has increased its potential vote share to 52 per cent.
Meanwhile, the poll suggests support for the NDP in the headquarters of Canada's oil industry has dropped to 39 per cent.
Considered the battleground in the 2023 provincial election campaign, New Democrats captured 48 per cent of the vote share in Calgary and 14 seats, some by razor-thin margins.
The survey indicates the UCP remains more popular with men (58 per cent) compared to women (45 per cent). A third of Alberta male voters (32 per cent) say they'd vote for the NDP. Alberta women are more likely to cast a ballot for the NDP at 45 per cent.
Seniors appear almost evenly split between the UCP (46 per cent) and the NDP (44 per cent).
Younger voters, ages 18 to 24, appear to be more inclined to vote for the UCP (47 per cent) compared to the NDP (39 per cent).
The UCP dominates among voters between the ages of 25 and 64 with 54 per cent, according to the poll, saying they prefer the governing party to the opposition NDP (37 per cent).
"Younger men are more attracted to right-wing parties right now," said Brown. "And views on separatism are really important in determining where people stand. So, young people who like the idea of separatism, they're definitely on the right end of the spectrum. And the fact that there are young Albertans wanting to separate, that's bad news for the NDP."
The CBC News random survey of 1,200 Albertans was conducted using a hybrid method between May 7 to 21, 2025, by Edmonton-based Trend Research under the direction of Janet Brown Opinion Research. The sample is representative of regional, age and gender factors. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For subsets, the margin of error is larger. The survey used a hybrid methodology that involved contacting survey respondents by telephone and giving them the option of completing the survey at that time, at another more convenient time, or receiving an email link and completing the survey online. Trend Research contacted people using a random list of numbers, consisting of 40 per cent landlines and 60 per cent cellphone numbers. Telephone numbers were dialed up to five times at five different times of day before another telephone number was added to the sample. The response rate among valid numbers (i.e., residential and personal) was 12.8 per cent.