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CBC
28-05-2025
- Business
- CBC
Poll suggests Alberta voters' honeymoon with Danielle Smith and UCP endures
EDITOR'S NOTE: CBC News commissioned this public opinion research to be conducted immediately following the federal election and leading into the second anniversary of the United Conservative Party's provincial election win in May 2023. As with all polls, this one provides a snapshot in time. This analysis is one in a series of articles from this research. More stories will follow. As Premier Danielle Smith approaches the halfway point in her mandate, over half of Albertans continue to support her United Conservative Party, according to a CBC News poll. "It's really quite amazing that two years in, she continues to enjoy a honeymoon," said Calgary-based pollster Janet Brown, who conducted the random survey of 1,200 Albertans between May 7 and 21 for CBC News. "We haven't seen a honeymoon last this long for a politician since the Ralph Klein days," Brown added. Twenty-four months after Smith's United Conservative Party defeated Rachel Notley's Alberta New Democrats, the polling suggests the premier continues to hang on to the support that propelled her to a majority in 2023. Now, 52 per cent of decided and leaning Alberta voters say they'd cast a ballot for the UCP. The poll suggests the UCP would cruise to a majority, winning 61 ridings, while the NDP could drop from the 38 seats it won in 2023 to 26 seats in the provincial legislature. In the 2023 election, the UCP won with 52.6 per cent of the vote and 49 seats. The NDP captured 44 per cent of the vote share, mostly in Alberta's two major cities. The recent poll suggests nearly four in 10 Albertans (38 per cent) would vote NDP. Seven per cent of respondents said they remain undecided. "The numbers are soft for the NDP right now," said Brown in an interview with CBC News. "Approval numbers for the leader are soft right now. It is tough times for the NDP." Albertans' positive impressions of Smith, in contrast, have ticked up over the past year, according to the survey. Improving impression of Smith The governing UCP embarked on an ambitious — and often controversial — agenda since winning power two years ago. Despite worries about " confusion and chaos" from front-line workers regarding the breakup of Alberta's health ministry and the lingering public concerns over an Alberta-only pension plan and establishing a provincial police force, four in 10 Albertans gave Smith high marks on a scale from zero to 10 for how impressed they are with the premier. CBC News spoke with more than dozen people on Calgary's International Avenue and in the community of McKenzie Towne on Monday about the UCP's leader. Voters who liked Smith called her honest and admired how she stands up for Alberta and isn't afraid to say what's on her mind. The voters disappointed with Smith who spoke to CBC News in Calgary were most likely to mention health care or her support for citizen-initiated referendums. Many Alberta voters remain impressed with Smith. "She'd probably make a really good prime minister, actually," voter Natasha Smith told CBC News. Last year, Smith's overall favourable impression rating was 4.5 out of 10. This year, Smith's overall rating ticked up to 4.7. Consistent with CBC News polling from last year, more than four in 10 of those surveyed (41 per cent) give the premier low marks between zero and three, while another 16 per cent gave her a middle-of-the-road rating between four and six. "When Danielle Smith was first elected leader of the UCP, Albertans were very cautious," said Brown. "The longer that they know Danielle Smith, the more comfortable they're getting with her." Smith's persistent hardline posture with the federal Liberal government appears popular with Alberta voters. Three-quarters of respondents who support holding a referendum on Alberta breaking away from Canada also rank Smith between seven and 10. And almost seven in 10 (69 per cent) of those Albertans who approve of Smith's efforts to reset the Prairie province's relationship with the federal government give the premier high marks. Calgarian Lisa Farrell shares that view, saying she likes Smith's support for the province's oil and gas industry. "I think she's really good," said Farrell, whose husband lost his job in the oilpatch last year. "I think she's doing a good job for the province and I think she's standing up for us and sticking up for us." Smith's impression scores have risen dramatically since she became premier in the fall of 2022. At that time, 54 per cent of Albertans said they were not at all impressed by the former talk radio host and Wildrose Party leader. Not everyone's opinion of the premier has improved, according to the Albertans CBC News spoke with on Monday. Calgary voter Dave Gibson remains unimpressed with Smith, citing the UCP overhaul of Alberta's health-care system. "She's kind of pulling apart Alberta Health.… It's not that broken. Don't try and fix it.… So, I'm not a fan," Gibson told CBC News on Monday. Naheed Nenshi, who won the leadership of Alberta's NDP last summer, received an average impression rating of 4.1 in the poll. Nearly three in 10 Albertans (27 per cent) gave the former Calgary mayor top marks, but four in 10 were not impressed with the NDP leader. Ten per cent remain unsure. In comparison, only three in 10 Albertans gave Nenshi's predecessor, Rachel Notley, low scores in the spring of 2023. "When Rachel Notley resigned and we heard that Nenshi was going to be running, there was all sorts of excitement. He was seen as a powerful political communicator," said Brown. "But things seem to have fizzled out since the leadership race. He's having a hard time winning Albertans over at the moment." Love them or hate them, Albertans, on average, think the leaders of the two main parties are more ideologically extreme than them. Middle-of-the-road voters see leaders as more extreme When it comes to ideology, the survey suggests Albertans see themselves as pretty middle-of-the-road on the left-right spectrum. On average, Albertans skewed slightly right at 5.8 when asked to place themselves on a scale from zero to 10, where zero means left and 10 means right. Using the same scale, Albertans polled said Smith was to the right of them at 7.9 out of 10. And they think Nenshi is to the left of them at 2.9 out of 10. "There's people who don't quite know where he stands, so I think his biggest problem is to get Albertans to understand what he is as leader of the NDP," said Brown. "And then I think he has to show Albertans that he can hold views that are closer to the centre, that he's not a left-wing extremist on every issue they care about." NDP support drops in Edmonton and among young voters Nicknamed "Redmonton" for its almost unwavering support for the NDP, enthusiasm for the party has dropped considerably in the capital since the 2023 election, according to the CBC News poll. Nearly six in 10 Edmontonians (58 per cent) voted for the NDP in the last provincial election. Poll results show the NDP and governing UCP in a statistical tie right now, with 47 per cent of Edmontonians saying they'd cast a ballot for the NDP and 44 per cent saying they prefer the United Conservative Party. The UCP, which captured 50 per cent of the vote in Calgary in the provincial 2023 vote, has increased its potential vote share to 52 per cent. Meanwhile, the poll suggests support for the NDP in the headquarters of Canada's oil industry has dropped to 39 per cent. Considered the battleground in the 2023 provincial election campaign, New Democrats captured 48 per cent of the vote share in Calgary and 14 seats, some by razor-thin margins. The survey indicates the UCP remains more popular with men (58 per cent) compared to women (45 per cent). A third of Alberta male voters (32 per cent) say they'd vote for the NDP. Alberta women are more likely to cast a ballot for the NDP at 45 per cent. Seniors appear almost evenly split between the UCP (46 per cent) and the NDP (44 per cent). Younger voters, ages 18 to 24, appear to be more inclined to vote for the UCP (47 per cent) compared to the NDP (39 per cent). The UCP dominates among voters between the ages of 25 and 64 with 54 per cent, according to the poll, saying they prefer the governing party to the opposition NDP (37 per cent). "Younger men are more attracted to right-wing parties right now," said Brown. "And views on separatism are really important in determining where people stand. So, young people who like the idea of separatism, they're definitely on the right end of the spectrum. And the fact that there are young Albertans wanting to separate, that's bad news for the NDP." The CBC News random survey of 1,200 Albertans was conducted using a hybrid method between May 7 to 21, 2025, by Edmonton-based Trend Research under the direction of Janet Brown Opinion Research. The sample is representative of regional, age and gender factors. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For subsets, the margin of error is larger. The survey used a hybrid methodology that involved contacting survey respondents by telephone and giving them the option of completing the survey at that time, at another more convenient time, or receiving an email link and completing the survey online. Trend Research contacted people using a random list of numbers, consisting of 40 per cent landlines and 60 per cent cellphone numbers. Telephone numbers were dialed up to five times at five different times of day before another telephone number was added to the sample. The response rate among valid numbers (i.e., residential and personal) was 12.8 per cent.
CBC
27-05-2025
- Business
- CBC
Alberta kicks off electoral boundary review as province swells to 5 million
Amid a surge in the province's population, a process has begun to redraw electoral boundaries in time for Alberta's next provincial election. Electoral boundaries are the dividing lines that determine which group of voters elect each member of the Legislative Assembly to represent them in the Alberta Legislature. The redrawing of those lines is an exercise that has long been a source of tension between urban and rural voices, with cities pushing for representation by population and rural areas emphasizing a need for unique considerations. Provincial law sets out that a five-member commission to review boundaries is to be appointed every eight to 10 years. Public meetings of the latest commission begin this week and will continue through June in locations across Alberta, including in Calgary, Lethbridge, Edmonton and Red Deer, among other communities. It comes as the real-time Statistics Canada population model shows that Alberta has crossed the five-million mark in its population. The majority of the province's population growth has been concentrated in its urban centres. Urban vs. rural debate For decades, critics and cities have charged that Alberta's electoral system favours the rural portion of the province, the base for provincial conservative governments. The report from the 2017 iteration of the electoral boundaries commission lays out the challenge: before new boundaries were drawn, the constituency of Lesser Slave Lake had a population of 28,858, while Calgary-South East had 92,148 people. It meant that a vote in Lesser Slave Lake had about 3.5 times more impact than a vote in Calgary-South East, because the rural constituency had far fewer voters but the same number of representatives in the legislature. Rural leaders, meanwhile, contend that representing vast, sparsely populated areas pose challenges that go beyond simple head counts. Calgary mayor says growth must be reflected Calgary Mayor Jyoti Gondek says her city's explosive population growth must be reflected in the province's electoral map. "Calgary is the fastest-growing city in the country, welcoming over 250 new residents every day. As the province undertakes its review of electoral boundaries, it is essential that this growth is reflected in the representation Calgarians receive in the legislature," she wrote in a statement. Gondek said growing urban centres like Calgary face increasingly complex challenges, from housing to infrastructure to public safety. "I urge the electoral boundaries commission to engage directly with municipalities like Calgary — we have the best understanding of where growth is happening and what our communities need," she wrote. "Ensuring fair representation isn't just about lines on a map. It's about preserving the integrity of our democracy and delivering results for the people we serve." Rural leader says it's more than a numbers game Bob Marshall, reeve for the County of Grande Prairie, said relying solely on population figures to draw boundaries misses the reality of representation in large rural constituencies. "Some people have to travel five hours just to see their MLA in the rural areas, especially in the north," Marshall said in an interview. "In the city, you can walk 10 minutes to your MLA's office. So there's that disparity." He added rural MLAs often deal with many community groups. "In ours, for our MLA … you're probably looking at 40 municipal councillors, and then the mayor and the reeve within those municipalities as well," he said. "So you're dealing with a lot more different dynamics." He argued that rural Alberta constituencies contribute significantly to Alberta's wealth through industry, and deserve appropriate representation. Commission must grapple with tensions Lisa Young, a political science professor at the University of Calgary, says there is a central tension involved here that plays out at both the provincial and the federal level. "The basic principle for creating electoral districts is the idea of representation by population," she said. "But Canada is a tricky country for doing that because we've got lots of geography and not that many people." She noted a Supreme Court decision from 1991 authorized deviations of up to 25 per cent in population, in effect allowing for rural districts that have fewer voters and urban districts that have more. "That right there starts to matter when you've got an electorate that is divided politically when it comes to rural versus urban," she said. In November, the Alberta government announced it will add two new electoral divisions for the next election, raising the total number of seats in the legislature from 87 to 89. The province also announced changes to the way electoral boundary commissioners go about their work. Previously, the commission was required to consider municipal boundaries when drawing electoral maps. Under new rules, this requirement has been removed. Young said the United Conservative Party and the NDP likely have different views about where they'd like to see those two new districts added. "The NDP presumably would like to see districts added to Calgary and to Edmonton. And there's certainly a good case for that. That's where most of the population growth has been," Young said. "I would imagine that the UCP would prefer to see a different approach to creating new districts, and perhaps having districts that include both some urban and some rural areas together." Process designed to be neutral, but politics still a factor The commission consists of five members: a chair appointed by the Lieutenant Governor in Council, two members nominated by the government, and two by the opposition. Keith Archer, who served on a previous Alberta commission and was chief electoral officer in B.C., said the structure aims to balance partisanship, but is still influenced by political realities. "It's not a non-partisan commission as much as … maybe closer to a bipartisan commission," he said. "The government still has the final say on what is accepted and what is passed by the Legislative Assembly." Historically, governments have mostly accepted the main report, Archer noted. Under Alberta's Electoral Boundaries Commission Act, most ridings must have populations no more than 25 per cent above or below the average size. The province also has an exception that allows up to four electoral districts to have up to 50 per cent below the provincial average, should they meet certain conditions. Nine constituencies in Alberta are currently more than 25 per cent above the average size: Calgary-Buffalo, Calgary-Foothills, Calgary-North East, Calgary-Shaw, Calgary-South East, Edmonton-Ellerslie, Edmonton-South, Edmonton-South West, and Airdrie-Cochrane. The political challenge at play is that redistributing seats toward cities could weaken the influence of rural areas, Archer noted. Commissions not being required to align boundaries with municipal borders could also open the door to more mixed rural-urban ridings, he added. "It'll be interesting to see whether the commission takes up that opportunity to begin carving out parts of urban constituencies and placing them in sections of constituencies that otherwise look like rural constituencies," he said. Laurie Livingstone, a Calgary-based lawyer and a member of the 2017 commission, said the last commission heard hundreds of submissions from across the province. She said they often used everyday questions to guide decisions — like where residents go to buy groceries or where their kids play hockey. "That helped provide us with some really good building blocks of which direction to go," she said. She added public input is essential to the process. "The commission is out there trying to make the best decisions they can with the forced requirement that they're going to have to put lines in places," she said. "So the more help that you can give the commission, the better job they're going to do."
CTV News
26-05-2025
- Politics
- CTV News
Alberta by-elections announced in 3 districts, including where NDP leader will run
Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi can be seen at a press conference in Edmonton on April 30, 2025. (Sean McClune/CTV News Edmonton) Voters in Edmonton and Olds will take to the polls in June following the issue of writs for Edmonton-Ellerslie, Edmonton-Strathcona and Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills. The announcement comes after three orders in council were approved Monday afternoon. Election day is June 23 with advanced polls opening on June 17 to elect members of the Legislative Assembly of Alberta. On Dec. 30, 2024, NDP leader Rachel Notley stepped down, freeing up the stronghold position in Edmonton-Strathcona. Current party leader Naheed Nenshi announced that he will be running in her place earlier this year. Darby Crouch will run in Edmonton-Strathcona for the UCP. Gurtej Singh Brar was nominated as the NDP candidate for Edmonton-Ellerslie following a vote on May 14. Naresh Bhardwaj, who served as MLA for Edmonton-Ellerslie from 2008 to 2015, will seek to return to the position after winning the UCP nomination on May 3. Bhardwaj withdrew from the 2015 general election after being accused – and cleared by the Progressive Conservative Party's investigation – of bribery. In Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, Tara Sawyer will run for the UCP. An NDP candidate will be chosen on June 14. 'These candidates understand what's at stake,' said UCP leader Danielle Smith in a statement Monday. 'We need strong local leaders who will defend this province and get things done — and that's exactly what our UCP candidates will do." With files from CTV News Edmonton's Alex Antoneshyn
