Farage's support has ‘topped out', pollster claims as Starmer told to stop obsessing about Reform

Independent

08-07-2025

A leading pollster has suggested that Reform UK's support in the country has 'topped out', and that the forward momentum carrying them up in the polls has come to an end.
Lord Robert Hayward has told The Independent that recent council by-election results, where Reform lost while defending seats, coupled with a small fall in the polls, suggest that Nigel Farage' s march to Downing Street at the next general election is facing some serious questions.
It comes after business leaders and senior figures in the Labour Party urged Sir Keir Starmer to 'stop obsessing' about Reform.
The analysis follows Reform losing two by-elections last week for council seats they were defending for the first time.
Many pollsters are looking at council by-election results as a more accurate indicator of the state of political parties than polls themselves.
One of the results in Newark West, Nottinghamshire, saw the Tories gain a seat from Reform in Robert Jenrick's constituency, while in Benfieldside, County Durham, the Lib Dems gained off Reform.
Both seats were won by Mr Farage's party in the recent county council elections, but their successful candidates had to stand down almost immediately.
Meanwhile, Reform has also been hit by questions over another of its MPs, James McMurdock, who resigned the party whip over the weekend after an investigation was launched into his business dealings during the Covid pandemic.
It means in 12 months, just three of the five original Reform MPs remain, after Rupert Lowe was ousted from the party earlier this year following a row with Mr Farage and former chairman Zia Yusuf earlier this year.
Lord Hayward has also taken note of a dip in support for Reform in recent polls although they are currently still ahead of the other parties.
In the last Techne UK poll Reform dropped 3 per cent to 28 per cent; and in last week's YouGov poll they were down one point.
There has also been a small fracturing of Reform's base vote on the right, with the emergence of new parties like Advance UK led by Reform's former deputy leader Ben Habib and the Restore Britain founded by Mr Lowe.
The decision by Reform to reveal that former Tory cabinet minister David Jones joined the party more than six months after he defected is also being seen as a sign of desperation.
Mr Jones joined just after Christmas but had indicated he no longer wanted to be in frontline politics and wanted no news fanfare over his defection. But with the party in retreat, Reform has decided to try to regain momentum through an article on GB News' website, the channel which employs Mr Farage.
Lord Hayward said: 'I would say their support has topped out rather than peaked [because] I'm not certain something else won't give them a further boost but the momentum has come to an end.
'Poll numbers have slightly declining. Membership numbers are down a bit. They are not winning by-elections. Those first two seats they defended were an important test.'
Reform have hit back at suggestions that their progress has come to a halt especially with a More in Common poll suggesting they would be the largest party in a general election with 290 seats.
A Reform UK spokesman said: 'Recent polls have us as high as 34 per cent, we were told 20 per cent was our limit, then 25 per cent and now 30 per cent.
'Reform has gained the most seats in council by elections since the local elections. We have all the momentum in British politics.'
In an interview at the weekend Rachel Reeves former adviser Lord Jim O'Neill told The Independent that obsessing about Reform was harming Labour.
He said: 'They should stop worrying about Farage, they have four years before that should matter.'