Britain's risk of power outages this winter lowest since pre-Covid, Neso says
In its early winter outlook, Neso anticipates an average operational margin – the difference between supply of electricity and demand for it – of 6.6 gigawatts (GW) from the end of October to the end of March.
This is the highest expected margin since the 2019-2020 winter and is greater than the 5.2 GW forecast last year.
The publicly-owned operator is tasked with ensuring that the supply of and demand for electricity always remains balanced.
If supply cannot meet demand then the country risks blackouts.
An increase in the margin has been driven by several factors, Neso said, including growth in electricity supply from battery storage at both a national and regional level – which enables power from renewables to be stored and then released when it is needed.
It also pointed to an increase in the availability of electricity generation from gas, and from a new power cable, known as the Greenlink interconnector, connecting electricity grids between Wales and Ireland.
This increased supply is expected to more than offset an expected rise in demand during peak periods.
The slight uptick marks a divergence from previous years, when demand has either stayed the same or fallen, but Neso said it is too early to say what might drive that increase.
Neso said it expects there to be around six minutes over the winter period where it might have to resort to special measures to keep the grid running smoothly.
In most cases where demand exceeds supply for a period of time, it is managed by the grid operator without any impact on consumers.
Neso stressed it was remaining 'vigilant' in its preparation for the winter amid changes in global energy markets.
'Our early view of the winter ahead shows a positive outlook with sufficient margins throughout the colder winter months,' Deborah Petterson, Neso's director of resilience and emergency management said.
'We will continue to monitor developments in global energy markets, remaining vigilant in our preparations to ensure that the resilience and reliability of the electricity network is maintained.'
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