Oil Edges Higher, Supported by Unexpected Fall in U.S. Crude Inventories
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Yahoo
17 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump's Tariff May Cut India GDP by 1%, Analysts Say
(Bloomberg) -- US President Donald Trump's additional tariffs on India will further damage the South Asian nation's already slowing economy and shrink its gross domestic product by as much as 1%, analysts said. All Hail the Humble Speed Hump Mayor Asked to Explain $1.4 Billion of Wasted Johannesburg Funds Three Deaths Reported as NYC Legionnaires' Outbreak Spreads Major Istanbul Projects Are Stalling as City Leaders Sit in Jail PATH Train Service Resumes After Fire at Jersey City Station Trump on Thursday doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50% as penalty for buying Russian oil, in a move that could make exports to the US of many industries uncompetitive. The cumulative tariffs — higher than not just those for India's export rivals such as Vietnam, but also China — could cut outbound shipments to the US by 60% and shave about 1% from GDP, estimates Bloomberg Economics. India's central bank sees the economy expanding 6.5% in fiscal 2026 — same as last year and way below the average 8% growth seen before that. 'The overall hit to GDP could be even higher at 1.1% over the medium term' once tariffs on sectors such as pharmaceuticals and electronics are announced, wrote analysts Chetna Kumar and Adam Farrar. Analysts see the new levies effective in 21 days hitting exports from labor-intensive sectors such as gems and jewelry, textiles and footwear, potentially halting business in these goods. The move is also expected to force India to actively scout for alternative markets. New Delhi called the move 'unfair, unjustified,' blasting Trump for singling out India when other countries are also buying oil from Moscow. Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi, economists at Nomura Holdings Inc., said the 50% tariff would be similar to a 'trade embargo, and will lead to a sudden stop in affected export products.' Low value addition and slim margins across many industries could make it hard for smaller firms to compete, they added. The US is India's largest export destination for goods, making up nearly a fifth of total outbound shipments. Citigroup Inc.'s Samiran Chakraborty said exports will become 'economically unviable' and 'a linear extrapolation of the impact might be an underestimation.' India's current and capital account flows too will feel the strain, Chakraborty said. With the rupee close to its record low, the central bank may have to intervene to cushion any sharp depreciation, he said. Citigroup estimates a 0.6-0.8 percentage point downside risk to annual growth from the higher tariffs. There are 'indirect impacts' on India's GDP growth 'through trade-related uncertainty as well,' wrote Goldman Sachs analysts led by Santanu Sengupta. While the firm sees downside risks to its growth projections, it will wait to reassess the outlook until the new incremental tariffs take effect after the three-week negotiation window. The government does not expect the damage to be as severe. Dammu Ravi, secretary for economic relations in India's foreign ministry said India will look at other opportunities if US becomes 'difficult to export,' mentioning South Asia, Africa and Latin America as potential markets. 'Its very natural for countries to look for alternatives when you are affected by a wall of tariffs in any part of the world,' he said. If high tariffs persist, analysts expect policy support from the government and the Reserve Bank of India to boost growth. The levies are applicable on two-thirds of India's shipments — worth $58 billion — to the US, according to Morgan Stanley. The RBI may undertake two reductions of quarter-point each, on top of the 25 basis points interest rate cut factored, wrote Bani Gambhir and Upasana Chachra of Morgan Stanley in a note to clients. The central bank on Wednesday kept rates unchanged, as policymakers chose a wait-and-watch approach amid tariff uncertainty. Moreover, the federal government is also likely to pause fiscal consolidation and potentially increase capital spending to support domestic demand, they wrote. (Updates to add Goldman Sachs view. A previous version of the story was corrected to reflect impact on GDP, not growth) The Pizza Oven Startup With a Plan to Own Every Piece of the Pie Russia's Secret War and the Plot to Kill a German CEO AI Flight Pricing Can Push Travelers to the Limit of Their Ability to Pay A High-Rise Push Is Helping Mumbai Squeeze in Pools, Gyms and Greenery Government Steps Up Campaign Against Business School Diversity ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Yahoo
17 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures rise as Trump hints at chip tariff carveout
US stock futures edged higher on Thursday as President Trump's sweeping tariffs hit dozens of US trade partners after his self-imposed deadline for countries to strike deals expired. At the same time, Trump's hint of a carveout for coming duties on semiconductors boosted tech for a second consecutive day. Futures attached to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) gained 0.6%. Futures attached to the benchmark S&P 500 (ES=F) were up 0.7%, and those on tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) rose 0.8%. Trump's deadline for trade deals landed at 12:01 a.m. ET on Thursday. Imports from nearly 200 countries now face duties ranging from 10% to 50%, and the overall average effective tariff rate is projected to jump to 18.3%. Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs Apple (AAPL) shares climbed Thursday in premarket trading as Trump and CEO Tim Cook announced the company would make a $100 billion investment in the US. As part of the deal, Apple will manufacture the cover glasses for iPhones and Apple Watches in Kentucky. The president also revealed at the press conference that he plans to eventually set a 100% tariff on semiconductors. Companies like Apple that commit to building in the US, however, will be exempt from the tariff, he said. Airbnb (ABNB), DoorDash (DASH), and Lyft (LYFT) reported earnings after the bell. DoorDash shares jumped premarket on an upbeat forecast driven by resilient delivery demand. Airbnb and Lyft, meanwhile, fell on disappointing guidance. On Thursday, in addition to grappling with the latest trade policy shifts, Wall Street will receive new data on weekly jobless claims. The state of the labor market is in high focus following a disappointing July jobs report and downbeat revisions to the May and June jobs reports. Good morning. Here's what's happening today. Economic data: Initial jobless claims (week ending Aug. 2); Nonfarm productivity (second quarter preliminary); Unit labor costs (second quarter preliminary) Earnings: Block (XYZ), Celsius (CELH), ConocoPhillips (COP), Eli Lilly (LLY), Sony (SONY), SoundHound (SOUN), Pinterest (PINS), Take-Two Interactive (TTWO), Twilio (TWLO), The Trade Desk (TTD), Vistra Energy (VST) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: Investors are 'agitated' by less than perfect earnings Shopify's strong quarter shows consumers are ignoring tariffs Eli Lilly stock falls on GLP-1 pill trial results Trump's tariffs hit dozens of countries as trade deadline expires Trump to sign order easing path for private assets in 401(k)s Apple leads surge in global tech shares after Trump tariff relief Trump boasts billions of dollars flowing into US from tariffs Warner Bros revenue surges on streaming expansion, box-office hits Trump floats possible tariffs on China for buying Russia oil\ TSMC shares surge as Taiwan says firm exempt from Trump tariffs Keep an eye on Firefly IPO Not too far removed from Figma's (FIG) huge IPO, Firefly will come to market at the Nasdaq later on today. The IPO was upsized, and it's likely it will come out of the block strong when it opens. I am not in love with the company's financials, but it has a host of key deals in place and its technology has proven to work (see trips to moon). And it has a SpaceX ( like story to tell at a hot time for markets. Perfectly timed debut. I am live with Firefly CEO Jason Kim around 11am ET today from the Nasdaq. Tune into Yahoo Finance! SoftBank swings to profit on vision fund gains ahead of AI push Softbank's (SFTBF, 9984.T, SFTBY) Tokyo shares closed 1% up on Thursday after reporting a bigger profit than expected in the June quarter. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Apple gains after announcing $100B US investment Apple stock rose 3% before the bell on Thursday. Yahoo Finance's technology editor Daniel Howley and Washington correspondent Ben Werschkul outline the latest developments from the Apple investment announcement on Wednesday. Read more here. Sony stock rises as in-demand games and music help allay Trump tariff fears Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. TSMC hits record; Taiwan says tech giant exempt from US tariffs Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) shares rose 5% in premarket trading on Thursday after announcing it will not have to pay 100% tariff on sales to the US. Bloomberg News: Read more here. Good morning. Here's what's happening today. Economic data: Initial jobless claims (week ending Aug. 2); Nonfarm productivity (second quarter preliminary); Unit labor costs (second quarter preliminary) Earnings: Block (XYZ), Celsius (CELH), ConocoPhillips (COP), Eli Lilly (LLY), Sony (SONY), SoundHound (SOUN), Pinterest (PINS), Take-Two Interactive (TTWO), Twilio (TWLO), The Trade Desk (TTD), Vistra Energy (VST) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: Investors are 'agitated' by less than perfect earnings Shopify's strong quarter shows consumers are ignoring tariffs Eli Lilly stock falls on GLP-1 pill trial results Trump's tariffs hit dozens of countries as trade deadline expires Trump to sign order easing path for private assets in 401(k)s Apple leads surge in global tech shares after Trump tariff relief Trump boasts billions of dollars flowing into US from tariffs Warner Bros revenue surges on streaming expansion, box-office hits Trump floats possible tariffs on China for buying Russia oil\ TSMC shares surge as Taiwan says firm exempt from Trump tariffs Economic data: Initial jobless claims (week ending Aug. 2); Nonfarm productivity (second quarter preliminary); Unit labor costs (second quarter preliminary) Earnings: Block (XYZ), Celsius (CELH), ConocoPhillips (COP), Eli Lilly (LLY), Sony (SONY), SoundHound (SOUN), Pinterest (PINS), Take-Two Interactive (TTWO), Twilio (TWLO), The Trade Desk (TTD), Vistra Energy (VST) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: Investors are 'agitated' by less than perfect earnings Shopify's strong quarter shows consumers are ignoring tariffs Eli Lilly stock falls on GLP-1 pill trial results Trump's tariffs hit dozens of countries as trade deadline expires Trump to sign order easing path for private assets in 401(k)s Apple leads surge in global tech shares after Trump tariff relief Trump boasts billions of dollars flowing into US from tariffs Warner Bros revenue surges on streaming expansion, box-office hits Trump floats possible tariffs on China for buying Russia oil\ TSMC shares surge as Taiwan says firm exempt from Trump tariffs Keep an eye on Firefly IPO Not too far removed from Figma's (FIG) huge IPO, Firefly will come to market at the Nasdaq later on today. The IPO was upsized, and it's likely it will come out of the block strong when it opens. I am not in love with the company's financials, but it has a host of key deals in place and its technology has proven to work (see trips to moon). And it has a SpaceX ( like story to tell at a hot time for markets. Perfectly timed debut. I am live with Firefly CEO Jason Kim around 11am ET today from the Nasdaq. Tune into Yahoo Finance! Not too far removed from Figma's (FIG) huge IPO, Firefly will come to market at the Nasdaq later on today. The IPO was upsized, and it's likely it will come out of the block strong when it opens. I am not in love with the company's financials, but it has a host of key deals in place and its technology has proven to work (see trips to moon). And it has a SpaceX ( like story to tell at a hot time for markets. Perfectly timed debut. I am live with Firefly CEO Jason Kim around 11am ET today from the Nasdaq. Tune into Yahoo Finance! SoftBank swings to profit on vision fund gains ahead of AI push Softbank's (SFTBF, 9984.T, SFTBY) Tokyo shares closed 1% up on Thursday after reporting a bigger profit than expected in the June quarter. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Softbank's (SFTBF, 9984.T, SFTBY) Tokyo shares closed 1% up on Thursday after reporting a bigger profit than expected in the June quarter. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Apple gains after announcing $100B US investment Apple stock rose 3% before the bell on Thursday. Yahoo Finance's technology editor Daniel Howley and Washington correspondent Ben Werschkul outline the latest developments from the Apple investment announcement on Wednesday. Read more here. Apple stock rose 3% before the bell on Thursday. Yahoo Finance's technology editor Daniel Howley and Washington correspondent Ben Werschkul outline the latest developments from the Apple investment announcement on Wednesday. Read more here. Sony stock rises as in-demand games and music help allay Trump tariff fears Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. TSMC hits record; Taiwan says tech giant exempt from US tariffs Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) shares rose 5% in premarket trading on Thursday after announcing it will not have to pay 100% tariff on sales to the US. Bloomberg News: Read more here. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) shares rose 5% in premarket trading on Thursday after announcing it will not have to pay 100% tariff on sales to the US. Bloomberg News: Read more here. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
17 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Oil Recovers With Traders Awaiting Possible Trump-Putin Meeting
(Bloomberg) -- Oil recovered from Wednesday's decline, with traders awaiting the outcome of a planned meeting between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in the coming days. All Hail the Humble Speed Hump Mayor Asked to Explain $1.4 Billion of Wasted Johannesburg Funds Three Deaths Reported as NYC Legionnaires' Outbreak Spreads Major Istanbul Projects Are Stalling as City Leaders Sit in Jail PATH Train Service Resumes After Fire at Jersey City Station Brent futures climbed toward $68 a barrel after earlier switching between gains and losses. Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters Russia and the US had agreed on a venue for the meeting, which would be disclosed later. Wednesday's trading session saw a deluge of news around Trump's push for a ceasefire in Ukraine, with the president doubling tariffs on Indian goods due to the nation's purchases of Russian energy. The levies won't take effect for another three weeks and stopped short of more punitive measures around oil supplies that some traders had feared. Crude has moved lower in August following a run of three monthly gains. Traders are positioning for a potential glut later this year after OPEC+ returned millions of barrels of shuttered capacity to the market. In addition, there are concerns about a slowdown in economic growth and weaker energy consumption as Trump's broader trade tariffs exact a toll, with a globe-spanning swathe of punitive levies coming into effect on Thursday. 'The current production and inventory surge will continue capping Brent in the early $70s, and once we have a solution to the current Russia-Ukraine peace issue, we expect to see a sharp move lower,' said Robert Rennie, head of commodity and carbon research at Westpac Banking Corp. As Trump piles pressure on India, the nation's state-owned oil refiners are pulling back from purchases of Russian crude for now, according to people with knowledge of the companies' plans. Any step back from Russian oil purchases would likely boost the value of alternative grades. Trump said on Wednesday there was a 'very good chance' he would meet soon with Putin and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in another bid to broker peace. While there's been no move yet against China, another top importer, Trump said that was possible. US data on Wednesday showed nationwide crude inventories fell 3 million barrels last week as refiners ran at the highest levels for the season since 2019. Still, crude holdings at the key Cushing hub extended a rebound from critical lows, expanding for a fifth week. That's the longest run of builds since 2023. The Pizza Oven Startup With a Plan to Own Every Piece of the Pie Russia's Secret War and the Plot to Kill a German CEO AI Flight Pricing Can Push Travelers to the Limit of Their Ability to Pay A High-Rise Push Is Helping Mumbai Squeeze in Pools, Gyms and Greenery Government Steps Up Campaign Against Business School Diversity ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
