Can Pakistan Afford War With India? Shortage Of Artillery Ammunition Reveals Its Military Capacity

India.com

04-05-2025

India-Pakistan Tension: The tensions between India and Pakistan, which soared after the terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam, are not likely to die down soon, as New Delhi is making big diplomatic moves now and then to keep the jittery Pakistan, which is fearing a heavy retaliation from India, on the edge in anticipation.
As the LoC remains on the boil due to Pakistan's continuous unprovoked firing, India has taken a slew of measures, from halting all sorts of imports from the neighbouring country to banning social media accounts of its cricketers, celebrities and leaders.
Amid the unrest at the border following the heinous act, Pakistan's military is facing a critical shortage of artillery ammunition, which has severely dented its warfighting capabilities, limiting it to just four days. The shortage is attributed to the country's recent arms deals with Ukraine, which have drained its war reserves.
The Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF), which supplies the military, has struggled to replenish supplies amid surging global demand and outdated production facilities, news agency ANI reported, citing sources. As a result, Pakistan's ammunition reserves can sustain only 96 hours of high-intensity conflict, leaving its military vulnerable.
Pakistan's military doctrine, centred on rapid mobilisation to counter India's numerical superiority, hinges on artillery and armoured units. Without sufficient 155mm shells for its M109 howitzers or 122mm rockets for its BM-21 systems, the army's ability to blunt an Indian offensive is severely compromised.
The social media posts on X in April 2025 claimed that critical 155mm artillery shells, vital for Pakistan's artillery-heavy doctrine, were diverted to Ukraine, leaving stockpiles dangerously low. The POF, designed to first meet domestic needs, struggled to replenish supplies amid surging global demand and outdated production facilities.
However, with the sale of 155 mm ammunition to Ukraine, all 155 mm gun systems, including their self-propelled and MGS artillery, are without adequate ammunition stocks. The shortage of artillery ammunition has severe implications for Pakistan's military doctrine, which relies heavily on artillery and armoured units. Without sufficient ammunition, the Pakistan army's ability to blunt an Indian offensive is severely compromised.
A source told ANI that due to a lack of critical ammunition, the Pakistani Military hierarchy is deeply concerned up to some limits about panic. The same was discussed in the Special Corps Commanders Conference on 02 May 2025, among many other things.
Earlier, former Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa acknowledged these limitations, stating that Pakistan lacks the ammunition and economic strength to engage in a prolonged conflict with India. Intelligence reports suggested that Pakistan has constructed ammunition depots near the India-Pakistan border in anticipation of potential conflict, a source told ANI.
Pakistan sent its ammunition to distant wars, only to find itself stranded, its arsenals empty, and its defences teetering on the edge. The pursuit of short-term gain has left a long-term wound, one that could prove fatal in the next crisis.
Pakistan's economic crisis, characterised by high inflation, mounting debt, and dwindling foreign exchange reserves, has further impacted the military's operational capabilities. The army has been forced to cut back on rations, suspend military exercises, and halt scheduled war games due to fuel shortages.