Henriette regains tropical storm strength in the Pacific but is still not forecast to threaten land
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Henriette regained tropical storm strength in the Pacific Ocean well east of Hawaii on Saturday, but forecasters said it was still not expected to pose a threat to land.
The storm was located about 450 miles east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii, according to the Miami-based National Hurricane Center, and was on a northwest heading at 14 mph.
Its maximum sustained winds were at 40 mph, just above the 39 mph threshold at which a system is classified as a tropical storm. Some further strengthening was forecast for the next couple of days.
Tropical Storm Ivo was also moving through the Pacific, southwest of Mexico.
Ivo had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph; was located about 295 miles west-southwest of the tip of the Baja California Peninsula; and was moving west-northwest at 7 mph.
No coastal watches or warnings were in effect for either storm, but the Hurricane Center said swells from Ivo would continue to affect the southern part of the peninsula for the next day or so and were 'likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.'
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USA Today
an hour ago
- USA Today
Will Tropical Storm Erin hit the US or turn? Here's what early forecasts say.
For now, most reliable computer models that meteorologists use show Erin curving away from the United States, spinning off the East Coast later in August. Tropical Storm Erin, which is still thousands of miles from the U.S. East Coast in the central Atlantic Ocean, is traveling west and forecast to strengthen into the season's first hurricane by Aug. 14, the National Hurricane Center said. But will it hit the United States? Most reliable computer models that meteorologists use to forecast storms show Erin curving away from the United States, spinning off the East Coast in mid-August. "It is too soon to discount – or pinpoint – USA landfall impacts from Erin but based upon current model guidance – the chance RIGHT NOW is low, at less than 10%," said Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue in an email to USA TODAY Aug. 11. WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry added a note of caution, telling USA TODAY that "it's worth reiterating that forecasts 5 to 10 days out are subject to large errors, so we'll need to hang tight before confidently giving the U.S. the all-clear." Maue predicted that "as the Lower 48 comes into view of Erin in the next few days, our models will become more confident/certain on the eventual outcome — so we should know on Thursday (Aug. 14) what will happen." However, even if Erin does avoid landfall on the United States, "there will be a significant increase in seas, surf and rip currents along the East Coast beaches next weekend into the following week," AccuWeather senior meteorologist Chad Merrill said. What forces are guiding Erin? As is often the case with Atlantic hurricanes, Erin's path will be primarily determined by the strength of the Bermuda High, a semi-permanent ridge of high pressure that sits over the western Atlantic Ocean in the summer. The stronger the Bermuda High, the more of a threat Erin is to the United States. A weaker Bermuda High is better news. "Erin will be guided along by the northeast trade winds initially and then the clockwise circulation around the massive Bermuda High over the central Atlantic," AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said. As of the morning of Aug. 12, the hurricane center reported that Erin should head west and slow down as the Bermuda High weakens slightly. Later in the forecast period, the high is expected to weaken a little more, and a more west-northwestward track is likely. Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza said the track forecast is in decent model agreement, "showing a good, tight track consensus through Sunday or Monday, bringing the storm north of the Caribbean islands." Warm waters could fuel major hurricane All signs point to Erin reaching major hurricane status, the hurricane center said. This means the storm will reach Category 3 status, with sustained wind speeds of at least 111 mph. The forecast is due to warm waters where the storm is expected to track, providing fuel for the storm, the hurricane center said. Low wind sheer could also help Erin strengthen There will also be a lack of wind shear that acts to tear developing hurricanes apart. "Low wind shear (a lack of disruptive winds) north of the Caribbean and much warmer water could really allow Erin to strengthen rapidly late this week and this weekend," AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno said in an online report. What parts of the US coast are most at risk? AccuWeather said that a major hurricane passing 100 miles east of the United States or west of Bermuda could still bring tropical storm conditions in terms of wind, heavy seas and perhaps heavy rain. "Land that extends farther to the east might be the most prone in this case, such as coastal areas of North Carolina, Long Island, New York, and Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard in New England," said AccuWeather meteorologists Alex Sosnowski and Elizabeth Danco in an online report. In Canada, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland could be facing more significant impacts from Erin. How worried should people be? The hurricane center, as always, stressed caution: It is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may bring to the east coast of the United States, the hurricane center said Aug. 12. However, the hurricane center said "As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place." Checklist: How to prepare your house for a hurricane Lanza said the odds favor a miss: "History favors an out to sea track, though not at 100 percent. Of the 56 known named storms track within 120 nautical miles of Erin's forecast position in 24 hours, 51 of them have gone out to sea, a U.S. hit rate of about 9 percent."
Newsweek
an hour ago
- Newsweek
Tropical Storm Erin Update as Chances of US Landfall Increase
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. A National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast warned that Tropical Storm Erin is expected to strengthen into a hurricane in the coming days as it treks westward across the Atlantic Ocean as the chances of a U.S. landfall have increased slightly. Why It Matters The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and runs through November 30. Tropical Storm Erin is the fifth named storm of the season and the second to form this month, following Tropical Storm Dexter, which fizzled out over the ocean in the first week of August. Erin could become a major hurricane, a designation that occurs when a storm's wind speeds reach 111 mph or higher, classified as a Category 3 hurricane. Should it strengthen as meteorologists expect, Erin could become not only the first hurricane but also the first major hurricane of the season. What To Know Tropical Storm Erin formed on Monday morning. Meteorologists had been tracking the storm, which originated as a tropical wave off the western coast of Africa, for days. As of Tuesday morning, Erin's maximum sustained windspeeds were measured at 45 mph, with stronger gusts. A forecast map from the NHC shows that Tropical Storm Erin's path has shifted slightly south. A forecast map from the NHC shows that Tropical Storm Erin's path has shifted slightly south. National Hurricane Center A forecast map from the NHC anticipates the storm will become a hurricane by Thursday morning. Further strengthening is expected, with Erin intensifying into a major hurricane by late Saturday morning. A major hurricane forms once the hurricane becomes a Category 3 storm, in which windspeeds are measured at 111 mph or greater. Shortly after Erin formed on Monday, Max Velocity, a meteorologist with 1.3 million subscribers on YouTube, shared the NHC forecast map in a post on X, formerly Twitter. "BREAKING: Tropical Storm Erin has been born, and we now have our first look at where the NHC believes this system could go," he wrote with the post. "We cannot completely rule out a US landfall, and the NHC expects this to become a MAJOR hurricane." BREAKING: Tropical Storm Erin has been born, and we now have our first look at where the NHC believes this system could go. We cannot completely rule out a US landfall, and the NHC expects this to become a MAJOR hurricane. — Max Velocity (@MaxVelocityWX) August 11, 2025 Later in the evening on Monday, Velocity published another post about how forecast models are shifting for Tropical Storm Erin. "Though the odds are low of a US landfall, it CANNOT be ruled out still. This will likely become a major hurricane," he posted. "Even if this doesn't make landfall, a close approach would still cause some problems. Still a very large spread, and details remain unclear. As it develops, the track will become clearer." Models are shifting WEST for Tropical Storm Erin, which will shortly become Hurricane Erin. Though the odds are low of a US landfall, it CANNOT be ruled out still. This will likely become a major hurricane. Even if this doesn't make landfall, a close approach would still cause… — Max Velocity (@MaxVelocityWX) August 12, 2025 AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek that there has been a southward shift in some of the forecast models, which moves the storm closer to the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Those areas could see between 1 to 2 inches of rain as the storm passes by. "Since the trend has been further south, that does increase the chance slightly of a U.S. landfall," DaSilva said. Even if the storm doesn't make landfall, some impacts could still be felt on the East Coast, such as dangerous rip currents. As of Tuesday morning, there are no hazards affecting land and no watches or warnings in effect for coastal areas. What People Are Saying DaSilva told Newsweek: "I still think the most likely scenario is a track somewhere between the Outer Banks [of North Carolina] and Bermuda. DaSilva added: "However, due to the fact that this storm has been moving a little further south and west, that can certainly increase the chance it can come closer to the United States." NHC in a recent key message issued for Tropical Storm Erin: "It is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may bring to the northern Leeward Islands, Bermuda, or the east coast of the United States. As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place." What Happens Next Erin could become a hurricane as soon as Thursday morning. People in nearby areas, such as the Leeward Islands and the East Coast, should monitor local weather guidance as the storm develops.
Newsweek
an hour ago
- Newsweek
Eastern States Face Temperature Anomaly
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Several eastern states are experiencing an unusual August, with temperatures in some areas running 5 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit below average so far this month, according to PRISM weather data. Meteorologist Mark Margavage predicted that mean temperatures in the region are likely to be significantly below average for the month of August, depending on the path Tropical Storm Erin takes. Why It Matters This unexpected cool spell in August disrupts the typical summer weather pattern in a region that usually experiences peak summer heat during August. What To Know A map of daily mean temperature anomalies from August 1 to 11, based on PRISM data, reveals cooler-than-usual areas along portions of the East Coast. The largest cool anomalies are centered over Virginia and the Carolinas, extending north into Maryland, Delaware, and southern Pennsylvania, as well as south to parts of Georgia, according to the PRISM data map. PRISM, or Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model, is a climate mapping system developed by Oregon State University that provides weather and climate data. Meteorologist Margavage estimated in a post on X that if Tropical Storm Erin continues on its predicted track and stays offshore, there's a roughly 75 percent chance that the region's monthly mean temperatures will finish below normal. He noted that in three out of four forecast simulations for the remainder of August, parts of the eastern U.S. trend cooler than average. Margavage also noted that multiple weather models are predicting a possible early fall in the region. He said on X that the models depict Tropical Storm Erin acting like a "magnet" and pulling colder air into the eastern U.S. This image provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows Tropical Storm Erin on Monday, Aug. 11, 2025. This image provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows Tropical Storm Erin on Monday, Aug. 11, 2025. NOAA via AP He added that colder, drier air also acts to deflect the hurricane out to sea. Tropical Storm Erin, which has formed in the Eastern Atlantic, is expected to turn into a major hurricane this week. While its exact path remains uncertain at this early stage, most forecasts are predicting that it is unlikely to make landfall in the U.S. What People Are Saying Meteorologist Mark Margavage on X: "If Erin stays out at sea(as currently predicted), I estimate there is a 75% chance that the mean temperatures for the month of August end up below average for most of my forecast area in the Eastern US." What Happens Next Meteorologists will continue to monitor Tropical Storm Erin, with its path not expected to become clear for at least several more days. Cooler-than-average temperatures are expected to persist in several eastern states over the coming weeks.
