Bullish Stock: Buy The Hype?

Forbes

3 days ago

Bullish (NYSE:BLSH) stock surged by over 80% following its IPO listing on Wednesday. While the listing was priced at $37 per share, the stock closed at about $68 per share. Bullish is a cryptocurrency exchange designed for institutional investors, combining decentralized finance protocols with a focus on regulatory compliance, licensing, and governance standards. While the company's positioning is unique, the stock now trades at about 100x 2024 revenues - not a cheap multiple even for a fast-growing company. So what should investors expect from Bullish going forward?
The Bullish Thesis
While the crypto wave over the last decade was led by retail investors, institutional investors are now paying serious attention. Institutional demand for crypto has been rising due to greater regulatory clarity in major markets, the launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, and improved custody solutions that address security and compliance requirements. Moreover, the Trump administration's favorable stance toward the crypto industry and strong pricing momentum in digital assets are also helping. Overall, crypto is increasingly being viewed as a legitimate method of portfolio diversification and an inflation hedge by large financial players. Bitcoin Allocation Wise For Retirement Portfolios?
Bullish also owns CoinDesk, a leading crypto news and data provider, and this enables it to integrate market intelligence with trading services, a perk for institutional investors. The company also holds its own crypto reserves, worth about $2 billion, primarily in Bitcoin, with smaller allocations to Ethereum and stablecoins. This gives it direct exposure to potential gains from rising crypto prices, adding volatility but also upside to its financial performance.
Strong Revenue Growth, Emerging Profitability
Bullish has been growing fast. It reported revenues of approximately $97 million in 2024, up sharply from $39 million in 2023, reflecting strong year-over-year growth of over 140% last year, driven by expanding trading volumes and institutional adoption. Trading volume reached $250 billion in 2024, compared to $72.7 billion in 2022. The company also posted a 78% increase in trading volume in Q1 2025. While Bullish reported a net loss in Q1 2025, it expects to swing to profitability in Q2, with projected net income between $106 million and $109 million. Since its launch in 2021, total trading volume on the company's platform has exceeded $1.25 trillion as of March 31.
Key Risks
Established exchanges and brokers such as Coinbase and Gemini present competitive challenges. Moreover, the crypto markets remain unpredictable and price swings in Bitcoin and Ethereum will directly impact results. While crypto trading platforms can be highly profitable in upcycles, things can go downhill quickly if the cycle turns. That being said, Bullish's institutional client base tends to generate more stable, recurring revenue streams, less tied to retail investor sentiment, and this could be a positive for the stock.
The stock's sharp rise on day one was driven by outsized demand and limited supply; however, supply could increase as the insider lock-up period ends in February 2026, potentially putting pressure on prices.
While BLSH stock has potential, investing in a single stock can be risky. On the other hand, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.