Zbig: the man who shaped the world
Zbig: The Life of Zbigniew Brzezinski, America's Cold War Prophet is out on May the 13th. Preorder here.
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The Independent
13 hours ago
- The Independent
Why gold is shining on the markets as Trump slaps Switzerland with unexpected tariffs
Donald Trump – yes him again – has sparked a surge in gold prices with the commodity hitting record highs after the White House unexpectedly announced new tariffs on 100-kilo and 100-ounce bars this week. The precious metal – a traditional safe haven during troubled times – is trading for north of $3,500 an ounce. How long before it breaches the $4,000 barrier? Those intending to buy jewellery, take note. America's decision to hit imports of gold bars from Switzerland, a major refining centre, with tariffs, was not what the industry expected and has poured rocket fuel onto an already frothy price. The FT reports that Switzerland sent $61.5bn (£45.8bn) of gold to the US over the 12 months ending in June. That would be subject to a $24bn charge under the new 39 per cent tariff applying to imports from the country. The gold price was already running hot. It is a traditional port in a storm during periods of economic and political turmoil, both on the markets and across the world as a whole. Globally the stakes are high, with geopolitical brush fires smouldering dangerously close to full-blown crises. It is also used as a hedge against inflation. With a limited supply, the price should rise if inflation starts to eat into the value of the currencies in which it is priced, especially the dollar. With US tariffs now at their highest level since the great depression, inflation is about to dig its fangs into the US economy and feast on the living standards of the US consumer. As well as imposing tariffs, Trump has been pressing the US Federal Reserve to reduce the interest rates that control inflation. While its embattled chair Jerome Powell has (so far) refused to budge, saying he needs time to evaluate the impact of the tariffs, the early departure of Adriana Kuglar from its board of governors has given the President an opening. Trump has announced that he will appoint Stephen Miran to temporarily fill the vacant seat, seen by some as a candidate for Powell's position when his term ends next year. Miran, a Harvard economist and advisor to the US Treasury, is one of the architects of its tariff policy and has pooh-poohed critics like me who have warned that the levies will inevitably stoke inflation. The appointment will give him a vote on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) where he is widely expected to toe the Trump line. If this leads to lower US rates, and even higher inflation, it will make gold even more attractive. The tariff on Switzerland's gold bars has injected an extra cost into the market because Switzerland is part of a three pronged golden triangle, the others being New York and London, where the metal is traded. Its role is to recast the bars, from the brick-side 400 troy ounce bar favoured in London to the smaller, smartphone sized kilo size favoured in New York. Yes, I know. The UK is part-metric, whereas the US is all imperial in terms of measurements. But whoever said any of this was supposed to make sense? As recently as 2004, with the rest of the City using screens, the gold price was still being 'fixed' in the offices of NM Rothschild, an old school merchant bank, on St Swithin's Lane, London. As part of the process, each of the market makers involved had a desk with a phone and a miniature union flag. These were raised when they wanted to pause the process to take soundings, and lowered when they were ready to fix. The proceedings were conducted in conditions of high secrecy – no outsider (so far as I know) was ever allowed to watch. However, I was once lucky enough to be allowed a rare visit to the rather underwhelming but still quaint room in which the fix took place. The process was modernised, becoming phone based (in line with other precious metal fixes) when NM Rothschild pulled out. But participants still call 'flag' when they wish to pause. Cute. These days, the London Bullion Market Association prefers to call the fix a 'benchmark', not least because it became clear that the process was being fixed in the negative sense of the word, along with several other of the City's benchmark prices, in the string of scandals that followed the 2008 global financial crisis. Barclays ultimately ended up getting hit with a £26m penalty 'for failing to adequately manage conflicts of interest between itself and its customers as well as systems and controls failings, in relation to the gold fixing'. But the twice-daily event persists because, even though the spot price of gold moves up and down through the day, market participants find it useful. What is Trump's rationale for gold tariffs? The conspiratorial part of me briefly wondered whether this was part of a cunning plan to muck up the international market and push people towards Bitcoin, which the president is a notable enthusiast for. Bitcoin can play a similar role to gold in hedging against inflation because there is also a limited supply and it is priced in dollars. But no, it really isn't that deep. For a start, the Bitcoin market scarcely needs any help. The cryptocurrency has more than quadrupled in value over the three years in which gold has almost doubled. Inflation will keep both commodities hot. Just as likely, given the way these tariffs have been concocted, is that someone in the US government choked on some fondue or a piece of gruyère cheese, and acted in a fit of pique. Together, this archaic corner of the City and Trump's capriciousness have served up something bleakly comic, unless that is, you're planning to buy gold jewellery for an engagement or a wedding or perhaps, because you just like wearing it. Then it's not funny at all. Will Trump pay a price at the polls? He seems determined to give his opponents a golden opportunity they really don't deserve.
The Herald Scotland
3 days ago
- The Herald Scotland
Transgender debate is more complex than some realise
Your sex is, but gender is not. Scientists agree that the way transgender people develop is a combination of genetics, biology and upbringing, with upbringing the least significant of the three. One example: With identical twins, if one turns out to be transgender, the chances of the other twin being likewise is 13 times higher than with non-identical twins. That's genetics for you. There is plenty more evidence; transgender people can no more help being transgender than others can help being gay. I'm not advocating for specific rights transgender people should, or should not, have. Merely pointing out that continuing to refer to them as "men" (which also puts trans men under the spotlight – what are they?), is demeaning and insulting, and only accurate as far as their sex is concerned. It's completely and scientifically inaccurate in terms of their gender. Iain Cope, Glasgow. Letters: Trans people have a right to privacy that includes filling in census forms Letters: Hiroshima was devastating opening shot in the Cold War Letters: Health benefit from a Brexit deal War… what is it good for? EIGHTY years on from Hiroshima ('Hundreds gather to mark dropping of Hiroshima bomb', The Herald, August 7) I find myself reflecting not just on history, but on the continuity of weapons, fear, and the industries built around them. I left Dumbarton in the early 1970s, at a time when protest against Faslane was strong and people believed there could be alternatives to war and weapons production on the Clyde. There were serious efforts to imagine different economic futures for West Dunbartonshire and other struggling regions; futures based on peace, not militarism. Now living in Adelaide, I see the same patterns repeating. Once a hub for cars, whitegoods and domestic manufacturing, South Australia is now turning increasingly to weapons production, submarines, missiles, surveillance technologies, tied tightly to AUKUS and a declining United States. The feared threat of the USSR has become the imagined threat of China. The Cold War turns warm, the actors change, and the cycle continues. What doesn't change is the moral clarity of those who say: never again. I salute the church leaders and citizens who stood in witness at Faslane last weekend. In a world addicted to militarism, their quiet stand for peace speaks louder than ever. Stewart Sweeney, Adelaide, South Australia. Vanity, all is vanity Modern cosmetic procedures, with their unavoidable fillers, are touted as being the road to glamour and the eradication of facial and physical flaws. Such presentations attract ladies who always want to look their best, and who can blame them? Down through the centuries women have made use of externally applied cosmetics, known in the game as war-paint, to present their best side. However, the modern practice of injecting foreign substances into different areas of the body should be considered a step too far and banned outright. Even when governed by what would be considered practical regulation. We have already seen too many examples of botched cosmetic procedures, involving fillers, at the hands of the poorly trained and virtually unskilled operators in that field. There are horror stories aplenty about the life threatening and life changing outcomes for patients who have chosen to improve themselves in the UK, or have gone abroad to combine a holiday with cheaper offers of cosmetic procedures. Consider yourselves lucky if you come out of such cosmetic encounters unscathed and without experiencing problems further down the line. Surgical operations may be necessary to correct serious physical infirmities. But why subject yourself to filler procedures supposedly designed to make you more appealing, though with every likelihood that you become one of the unlucky ones condemned to suffer botched beauty treatments. Learn to grow old gracefully and continue to apply the more recognised glamour products for nights out and daily appearances. Denis Bruce, Bishopbriggs Taxing situation Ian McNair's letter 'Poor SNP decision' (Letters, August 7), is not quite factual. Prescription charges were abolished in Scotland in 2011, and were not free to the majority before that date as Mr McNair claims. Those who had long term conditions and were unable to work were not automatically exempt from charges, because if you did not have a condition covered by the exemption list (like a heart condition), then whether you got free prescriptions was dependant on the income of the household. In other words, it was a means tested benefit. The SNP in Government recognised that this was a tax on the sick paid through the household income and abolished prescription charges. Catriona C Clark, Falkirk. Thistle do nicely THANKS and congratulations to my old work colleague Ian W Thomson for speaking up in support of Milngavie (Letters, Aug 07). Ian has been a staunch ambassador in these pages for his home town of Paisley for many years, and as a native of Maryhill, now in very happy retirement in Milngavie, I am grateful for his support. Crail may be a very pleasant place, but for someone like me who likes to have easy access to trains and boats and planes, not to mention Partick Thistle, it does not tick many boxes. Willie Maclean, Milngavie. Shoot first THE mention of American comic book superhero, Spiderman, swinging his way effortlessly through Glasgow city centre while the traffic down below is in permanent gridlock (Letters, Aug 7), makes me suspicious that Spidey (as his numerous fans label him) is not as heroic as he at first would seem. If he truly was one of the 'good guys' surely he would provide us all with web-shooters, so we don't have to use cars or buses, and thus won't be left facing the daily road blockages caused by the Marvel movie clogging up the thoroughfares? Mark Bailey, Paisley. Some chips, with their old friend, a slice of battered fish. Food for thought I NOTE that eating three or more portions of French fries increases the risk of type 2 diabetes ('Eating fries over boiled potatoes significantly increases type 2 diabetes risk', The Herald, August 7). Boiled, mashed or baked potatoes are innocent of this crime. Are chips okay? Alastair Clark, Stranraer.
Spectator
3 days ago
- Spectator
What Putin wants from his meeting with Trump
With just a day to go until the expiry of his ultimatum to Vladimir Putin to halt the war on Ukraine or face dire consequences, Donald Trump has once more reset the clock. Trump intends to meet in person with President Vladimir Putin of Russia as soon as next week, the New York Times has reported. That summit will be followed by a second, trilateral meeting including Trump, Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, Trump reportedly told top European leaders in a conference call on Wednesday night. The announcement came after Trump's envoy, real state developer Steve Witkoff, met Putin for three hours of talks at the Kremlin. Trump wrote on social media that he had 'updated some of our European Allies' about the Witkoff talks. 'Everyone agrees this War must come to a close, and we will work towards that in the days and weeks to come.' A week before, Trump had professed himself 'disappointed' with Putin's continuous broken promises and moved up a previous 50-day deadline for the Kremlin to cease fire to just eight days – an ultimatum due to expire this Friday. And just hours before he hinted that he was ready for direct talks with Putin, Trump followed through on a threat to impose secondary sanctions on countries which imported Russian oil. 'India … doesn't care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine,' Trump said before announcing a 25 per cent tariff on Indian exports to the US due to begin in 21 days. Whether Trump will now actually impose those tariffs in light of his new plan to open talks with Putin is unclear. Trump, famously, considers himself a master of the art of the deal. He favours high-profile, face-to-face summit meetings with world leaders, whether friend or foe. In 2018 he met Putin in Helsinki for a long meeting that cosplayed the high-stakes summits between Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev that laid the groundwork for the end of the Cold War. But no deals resulted from that Trump-Putin summit, despite the fact that Putin was at the time already illegally occupying Crimea and his proxies controlled parts of eastern Ukraine. Instead, the main soundbite was Trump appearing to side with Putin over his own intelligence establishment on the subject of Russian interference in the 2016 US elections. 'No prior president has ever abased himself more abjectly before a tyrant,' wrote the late Republican Senator John McCain, decrying Trump's toadying to Putin as a 'disgraceful performance'. This time, the stakes for a Trump-Putin summit will be much higher. People are dying every day, Russian troops are relentlessly advancing, and Ukraine faces critical shortages of air defence missiles and military manpower. Trump has repeatedly vowed to bring an end to the conflict in Ukraine, and has made several threats to impose devastating sanctions on Moscow's oil and gas clients if Putin does not comply. The pressure will be on for Trump to actually persuade, cajole or force Putin to stop his air and ground offensives in Ukraine. It's significant that Europe will be completely sidelined from the proposed talks. Clearly, Trump expects to present whatever he agrees with Putin to the rest of the world as a fait accompli. But in one important sense, direct talks between Washington and Moscow will break a deadlock. Putin has resisted being seen to bow before US pressure. At the same time, the full-scale sanctions threatened by Trump would wreak chaos on the world economy by removing the 10 per cent of the world's oil supply provided by Russia from markets, sending energy prices spiralling. The result of this standoff has been a near-farcical game where Putin pretended to negotiate while Trump pretended to assemble a formidable battery of imaginary sanctions. That phase of phoney negotiations will soon be over. The next question is what incentive Putin will have to end a war that he believes that he is winning. Russian forces appear to be accelerating their encirclement of the strategic railhead of Pokrovsk in Donbas and are advancing towards Kharkiv. At the same time political unrest in Kyiv is growing, both over Zelensky's disastrously misguided attempt to bring anticorruption agencies under his control as well as the forced conscription of men into Ukraine's severely depleted army. Desertions of Ukrainian troops from the front line are, reportedly, soaring. Head of Ukrainian Military Intelligence General Kyrylo Budanov has warned that the country could face a military collapse this summer. Putin can be forgiven for believing that time is on his side. The stark answer to what Putin wants is that he is not fighting for land but rather is fighting to subordinate Ukraine and, as he sees it, prevent it from becoming a threatening Western proxy. That's importantly different to destroying Ukraine, occupying Ukraine, exterminating all Ukrainians, or other hysterical assessments of the Kremlin's intentions. But Putin has been very clear from the start of hostilities that he will not countenance Ukraine as a member of Nato. He also demands limits on the Ukrainian military and the restoration of rights to Russian language speakers and adherents of the Moscow-loyal party of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. Most importantly, Putin wants regime change in Kyiv, which means the end of Zelensky – who is already six-and-a-half years into a five-year presidential term. How many of Putin's demands will Trump concede during their face-to-face negotiations? Many Ukrainians will ask what right Trump has to negotiate over their heads – exactly what President Joe Biden vowed never to do? Many Ukrainians fear that they are about to be sold down the river in a great power stitch-up reminiscent of the 1945 Yalta carve-up of post-war Europe. 'The war must end [but] it must be done honestly,' tweeted Zelensky on Wednesday after a conference call with Trump alongside other European leaders. 'We all need a lasting and reliable peace. Russia must end the war that it itself started.' Trump's apparent answer to Europeans' concerns has been to symbolically offer a follow-up trilateral meeting involving himself, Putin and Zelensky to give at least an illusion of Ukrainian participation. That seems to be a recipe for disaster. Putin hates Zelensky for defying him and turning the short, victorious war he planned into a long and bloody quagmire. Zelensky hates Putin for massacring and abusing thousands of his people – as well as for sending murder squads to Kyiv with orders to murder him in the first days of the war. Zelensky and Trump had a cordial meeting in Rome at Pope Francis' funeral – but the bad blood after Zelensky's humiliation in the Oval Office in February persists. Meeting Zelensky would legitimise him as the leader of a sovereign Ukraine, which is anathema to Putin. In short, the meeting is as unlikely as it would be disastrous if it ever happened. The good news is that in calling for direct talks with Putin, Trump has offered a quick route to the end of the war. The bad news is that it's likely to be on Putin's terms.
